LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I have noticed this with many major hurricanes. Ted Fujita came up with the idea of "mini-swirls" in the eyewall of hurricanes after surveying the damage of Hurricane Andrew. In Andrew, there would be one block of houses with the roofs torn off, but the adjacent block would have considerably less damage. I noticed the exact same thing with Hurricane . It appears to me that the worst damage in major hurricanes is caused by small tornadic vortices within the eyewall.
Ronn
Too bad he can't survey this one...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Brad
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Agent B:
34 kt winds at flight level, not at the surface. 30 kt at the surface--and I bet that's generous, in a very limited area at best.
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Frank P
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Ronn, what this really tells me is that anyone who does not evacuate is at grave risk.... if you are in that east eye wall of a major storm close to the point of landfall, you best get the hell outta dodge.... because you'll never know if one of them mini-swirls has your number or not..... interesting..
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Wxwatcher2
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Ronn, what this really tells me is that anyone who does not evacuate is at grave risk.... if you are in that east eye wall of a major storm close to the point of landfall, you best get the hell outta dodge.... because you'll never know if one of them mini-swirls has your number or not.....
Unfortunately there will always be those that play russian roulette with their lives.
It saddens me to see the extent of the damage along the coast.
Mother nature will win every battle.
The dome home came through ok I think...
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Frank P
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Yeah, dome home held up great....
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LI Phil
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>>>Yeah, dome home held up great
For anyone who might not know to what they are referring, this is the Dome Home.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
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still looks stationary, maybe drift to west, last couple of sat pixs show some convection trying to build NE of LLC, not much, but its gotta start developing convection around the LLC if its going to do anything at all, could be the start of that process... still needs to get some distance from the island for any real development to occur and if this happens I think it might still have a chance to slowly develop.... ..
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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rmbjoe1954
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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So the consensus is for a SE coastal 'near-miss'. I'm not too sure about that, but I do hope for Jeanne to go to the fishes.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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meto
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considering what it has been thru, its amazing it looks that good. center is looking better.
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Lisa NC
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here is the actual picture of the dome home before came thought (in the middle of the page).
um...where is it?
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 17 2004 10:20 PM)
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MrSpock
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The best example of how forecasting can be tricky.......A few days ago, was supposed to be stationary by now, and he is now moving ENE at 20 mph.
Accuweather said Jeanne was going to hit Fla in 5 days with a minimum of 95-110 mph winds, now guidance shifts east, and is being considered less of a threat to the S.E coast, while maintaining average tropical storm strength.
Those limbs can be pretty shaky at times.
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DMFischer
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I found this article about how the Dome Home and . Dome Home Lives Through
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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Keith234
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How are you bearing with the rain today Mr.Spock, just as I predicted the rain didn't materlize on LI today but of course it will tom. coupled witth that strong pressure gradient, we could be seeing gusts up to 35 mph's. That should be a nasty day. Jeanne seems to be re-organizing but it's LLC is still exposed, I'm almost in total disagreement with the 's forecast now and I'm getting nervous that this storm could ride it's way up here. Let's see how it pans out, very hard forecast with this one.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Frank P
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Storm JEANNE: Observed By AF #977
Storm #11 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 49KT (56.4mph 90.8km/h) In N Quadrant At 2131Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 44.1KT (50.7mph 81.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, September 17, 2004 17:10:00 (Fri, 17 Sep 2004 22:10:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 20° 08' N 71° 47' W (20.1°N 71.8°W)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40KT (46MPH 74.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 45nm (51.75miles) From Center At Bearing 041°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 49KT (56.35mph 90.8km/h) From 108°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 045nm (51.7 miles) From Center At Bearing 041°
Minimum pressure: 1000mb (29.53in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 5nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
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HanKFranK
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we've got one of the most complicated forecast situations i've ever seen with tropical cyclones developing in the western atlantic.
jeanne is stuck, clinging to the north coast of haiti, getting intense sw shear. all it's convection is away to the east, and the center is being drawn towards it.. also a low layer vortmax southwest of haiti is dragging it. that's just getting started.
ivan has swept northeastward more quickly than forecast, and it's future is also a point of confusion. its upper vorticity should get sucked out NE ahead of the sharp shortwave leading the strong reinforcing ridge, while the surface system should drag offshore, turn SW, and possibly redevelop. if it doesn't shear out, that is. the orientation of the ridge developing north of jeanne should become more peaked, and force the storm more westward, once the shortwave trough energy currently diving into the NE US interacts with the complex upper trough east of bermuda.. and this is the same upper system that should bring karl up east of jeanne.. which models variably show dragging jeanne away to the east, or not having significant influence and letting jeanne come west. add to that the cyclogenesis being indicated in the stewing feature in the SW caribbean, and we've got one whopper of a complicated forecasting situation.
here's my rundown:
ivan gets stripped offshore, then forced back SW as a weak system. jeanne meanders near the SE bahamas for a couple of days, begins coming west again, heads for the southeast while intensifying. potential invest in the western caribbean. karl is already showing tendency to recurve.. intensifies a great deal over the weekend and heads north out to sea on the upper trough. another invest appears on the wave in karls wake early next week.
if half of that pans out i'll be super-satisfied.. i'll feel good on even 25%.. this is one hell of chaotic forecasting problem.
have fun figuring this one out, .
HF 2246z17september
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GuppieGrouper
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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It looks to me that every one in the frenzy over , over forecasted Jeanne to start with. She never looked like a hurricane to me nor much of a tropical storm. I would look at those pressures and the wind speeds and they did not look valid according to the satellite pix we were getting. It was almost like the forecasters were just throwing it out there so they could keep their eyes on . I know that those islands have more land mass to them than it appears. Jeanne is probably an afternoon aggravation to some one's picnic later this coming week. I think has sucked all the energy out of the atmosphere and there will be very little action close to U.S. until middle of October if then.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Fri Sep 17 2004 10:58 PM)
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recmod
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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An amazing turn of events....Now I am hearing models and even respected forecasters mentioning the possibility of pulling off the East Coast, turning south and restrengthening before threatening to come ashore again in Florida! I know some of you give little credence to Gary Gray and his forecasts..but take a minute and read his discussion for today. It kinda blows my mind:
http://millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html
This hurricane season is just one thrill a minute.
--Lou
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MrSpock
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Maybe a drop or two, but there are tornado warnings in the D.C. area and south and west. Except for being muggy, it wasn't that bad here today. It might be awefully hard to stall this storm off of the coast and drift it south considering it has accelerated. I/we should see heavier rain tonight though, as my local office is calling for a general 1-2" in my area-mere drizzle compared to what is happening elsewhere.
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FireAng85
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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So, I noticed that the Accuweather forecast hasn't changed so much...... Does this guy (Mr. Bastardi) really know his stuff? I have trusted the but this seems to be a HUGE mess! I want to be prepared but I'm tired of being on the edge. I haven't gotten much sleep since came through and I finally finished my clean up yesterday. Now, I get to help the neighbors who haven't been able to work as much as I have. I had to focus my nervous energy somewhere. 
So, I think I know what you guys are thinking....... you really don't have any idea what is going to happen. That is very unnerving for those of us who don't have a clue! Do you think 24 hours is going to make a difference? Should we know more tomorrow? Sorry for so many questions, just trying to get my schedule in my head. I was told when I come to work Monday to come prepared to work for 3 days. Doesn't look like that is going to pan out now. Unless you guys are seeing something that you can't pass on...........
I'll just show up Monday and see what happens..............
Oh, I'm glad that everyone is ok up north and made it through ok. I was praying for you!
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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MrSpock
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Usually, time answers questions like these, but somehow, more have been created. I haven't seen the 18Z runs yet, but somehow I expecting to see the red storm on Jupiter there somehow.
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