OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The really shows Jeanne. Look to the north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti border:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Accuweather still shows a radically different track from the :
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/...ve&partner=
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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The 18Z ETA shows the same thing as the 12Z, redeveloping a center off of the Hatteras coast, moving it into N.E. Fla, while doing the Fujiwahra thing with Jeanne, which is well offshore.
The is doing the same thing as 12Z, leaving a little piece behind, but taking most of it into the North Atlantic, then getting Jeanne trapped well offshore before it finally moves N.E and out to sea.
In other words, both are consistent with their earlier runs, which don't agree with one another.
Ask me next week what happened, I might be able to tell you.
Edited by MrSpock (Fri Sep 17 2004 07:16 PM)
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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OrlandoDan, that's the track I was referring to. I am soooo confused............... 
I did take my plywood down yesterday, but I did leave them on the ground by the windows. I don't know if I'm coming or going.
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The latest vortex message has flight level winds up to 49 knots...using the 90% rule...doesn't that translate to a 45knot tropical strom...????????????
751
URNT12 KNHC 172210
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/2210Z
B. 20 DEG 08 MIN N
71 DEG 47 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 041 DEG 45 NM
F. 108 DEG 49 KT
G. 041 DEG 045 NM
H. EXTRAP 1000 MB
I. 23 C/ 461 M
J. 24 C/ 459 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0511A JEANNE OB 19
MAX FL WIND 49 KT MAX FL WIND 49 KT N QUAD 2131Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I too have done the exact same. The plywood is leaning up against the house. It was way too depressing with it all up. Whatever, I will keep my eye on jeanne. I fear tornadoes on the N/NE sideof the storm even if it is a CAT 1 at landfall. Who knows. I will watch, listen, and read this board to stay informed.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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yep, and if you watch the IR loop convection continues to fire off to the East of the center... but she looks to be fighting some shear from the SW, and still awful close to land...I think her development might cap off soon unless she can get some distance from the island, and the shear also lets up somewhat...
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Jeanne sure is strengthening...even more impressive on the WV loops...wonder what the models will say tomorrow?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Remeber when we had a false alarm with Earl, almsot everyone thought it was going to develop and would makes its way over to Florida but that never happened. Maybe Jeanne could do just that and get out of our way. This one is one doozy of a forecast, hopefully it will just disetergrate into the air from which it came from.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I have been lurking on this site for years, but only registered recently. I have learned a great deal from the experts on this board. I prefer to listen to figure out what will happen to Jeanne. I place a great deal of confidence in the , but not 5 days out. I don't place any confidence in anything 5 days out for that matter.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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You got that right near Jeanne, that should provide some shear for that storm, you can see that LLC and the clouds being connected with the indicating the prevailing atmospheric flow near there. Until that dies down, that shear is going to be present, it might premantly impair the storm of cyclogenesis, yeah!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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GaGirl
Unregistered
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O.K. We have really been lucky here on the Ga coast. (about 100 yrs. worth of good luck) This morning it looked like Jeanne might pay us a visit, but now it looks like our Ga luck is still in place. Personally I think she's about run her last race. As for , even with the models gone haywire, he's history too in my opinion. I guess we will all see soon enough. Just to let you all know: I have really enjoyed this sight and it has been very helpful, not only to me, but hundreds of OTHER lurkers out there. Just thought I'd put my two cents in!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Sorry Spock - must have been Agent or someone else I had you confused with. I read 2 threads (hundreds of posts) with only one browser open so that's the error here.
-------------------------------------------------
For the question about Joe B, he is what he is. He's a master of pattern recognition and is a very dedicated tropical forecaster. His columns and videos are worth my $15 a month during tropical season. I got hooked on his take when all that used to be free (pre-2003 season).
FWIW, his current thinking is that Jeanne comes N or NNW slowly for the next few days, stalls, gets forced back WSW and either crosses over or S of FL. He thinks (assuming survival) that it makes Cat 2ish status there. gets out south of Jersey and creates gales to its north as it comes back down the coast (watch for potential development if the center - still intact - gets out over water). Ultimately backs SW into the Central Gulf and changes the windflow patterns. Jeanne, meanwhile, makes her hit (or brushby) and then heads round about toward New Orleans ala Andrew, Betsy, & 1947. I don't think he expects Jeanne backing until 5-6 days out, so the threat is really after next weekend.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Dawn
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: St. Petersburg FL
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This is the first Friday in a month I come from work and go to the grocery store and actually walk the aisle and shop without worry if it will spoil.
This month has been hell, I work for a major Home Improvement Store, I order Paint and Hardware, since Charlie I can not get back in stock, I have had grown men cry when I did not have something they needed or wanted, I was so stressed this last month till today I went to the grocery store and was not in a hurry or surrounded by a crowd buying any all things that were not nailed down.
All I really wanted to say is Jeanee can do what she wants this weekend, I am going to relax, check with you all over the weekend, then if needed go back into stress and why do they (the company) think I do not need this or that product and send me things I don't need.
Will take down plywood all the way around the house when the weather is looking good for more than 2 weeks. My husband and I were talking and agreed that it has been really guiet in Central Florida for many years, me being a native and him here since 1972, we both agreed and so did John Wilson on WTVT13 that the next 25 years are going to be active, we have been lucky and will continue to be so if people will not wait till the last minute.
Plan, buy, save and do not return. You may need it next weekend.
Sorry If I went off base, but you all are great, have been a source of well versed post with knowledge I wish I had but learning.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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No problem...
A lot of tornadoes in the D.C. metro area, and in the watches. One warning mentioned 2 were on the ground, and what roads to avoid. 100 miles east, and it is dry.
If it comes off of the Jersey coast I may get into some of that action.
Look at all of the warnings out there as of 8:21 on the link
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/
This is a post with an expiration date I guess.
Edited by MrSpock (Fri Sep 17 2004 08:24 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Hope you guys if the D.C area are okay, Tornado outbreak occuring, reports of 3 tornados in the area. Watch out Mr. Spock these things are coming for you.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Fri Sep 17 2004 09:20 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I was surprised that did what they did with the forecast. With as much confusion that was out there, it almost seems like it might have been best to keep the prior forecast in place until things settle out. I doubt what they changed to will verify any more then what they had before.
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Jim
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Jeanne is showing a little westward drift during the last several IR loops... SW shear is pounding her but she's doing her best to fight it off... very determined this gal is..... if this shear were to let up, she'd take off.... her LLC is quite healthy at the moment...
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Hi Everybody,
Been away for a while also was in the GOM wasn't fun but that is life, I hate to being this up but still have connections with US Navy after 30yrs , some of their models for Navy eyes only shows Jeanne could be going to LA/TX as a Cat3 hit in 7 to 9 days. Old saying never say never.
Dave
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I agree with you Rasavar, it's not a wise idea to change a forecast admist much confusion. They should stick to one forecast until the remmants of make more sense to were they're going. Looks like they will first head out to sea following the trough, then they will get caught up in the ridge and move southwest, then have a fujihawara affect with Jeanne, proprelling her to the Carolinas. As Ed said, the north track of the hurricane is very dubious.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Fri Sep 17 2004 10:32 PM)
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