Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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The 11pm discussion is one of the strangest I've ever read.
Basicly saying they don't know where the storm is going.
Luckily, Jeanne is a much weakened entity and I doubt she will develop much unless the shear lessens its grip.
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Im sorry to hear about all that, especially the child. Im glad youre o.k.! We have property in waynesville N.C and are very concerned with everything up there. IMO thats gods country!
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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The new ETA is out to 72 hours, and is coming into better agreement with the . It is shearing out the main part of , while leaving a little behind over the coastal waters but it does not deepen it like the last 2 runs. It also brings Jeanne up the east side of whatever is left, similar to the .
Now that this agrees with the 18Z , I hope that doesn't change radically. Actually, if the maintains continuity, a little more confidence in a forecast is possible. Either way, the ETA now doesn't threaten the US with much if anything, but of course, one's guard cannot be let down. I think these last few weeks have definitely taught us that.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Until Jeanne re-establishes some kind of true identiity, I am unsure any forecast model will grasp her very well. I agree with not making any real changes to the forecast. Maybe tomorrow afternoon the situation will become a little more stable. With the system moving at such a slow speed, there is no urgency to force a forecast towards any particular situation. I doubt there will be a major change by the 5:00am advisory. Maybe the 11:00am will give some insight. I would not be at all surprised to see a return to a similar forecast that we had this afternoon before her encounter with the mountains.
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Jim
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I agree Rasvar...too much going on to make a forecast or a guess. I am very skeptical of her chances.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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It is not always obvious, but if you read between the lines on the discussions (and on rare occassions it is not even subtle) It is clear that the different forecasters at the do not always agree with each other. So do not expect that as they go from shift to shift over time that they will keep a consistent forecast, and sometimes they even make comments dissing the previous forecast.
They are not machines, they are human beings and they do not always agree. Hurricane forecasting is subjective, so we can't expect anything else. They do a fantastic job given the circumstances.
Everyone wants a perfect answer, they want to know absolultely what will happen to them. That is not reality. Hurricanes will go where they go and if we are lucky we can guess where they might go ahead of time. Expecting anything else is foolish.
Bill
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Wish I had something to add, but Jeanne is a pathetic looking storm right now. All of the convection is sheared off to the east of the center, which is just hugging the north coast of Haiti. Neither the shear nor the landmass are helping it get any better organized, and I tend to think that the lower pressure & upgrading of the storm is more likely due to a convective burst than anything. I only give it fair odds of surviving long-term, but if it does then there is good potential for it to strengthen...or it could pull a Bonnie. I really don't know.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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darthaggie
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
For the question about Joe B, he is what he is.
FWIW, his current thinking is that Jeanne comes N or NNW slowly for the next few days, stalls, gets forced back WSW and either crosses over or S of FL. He thinks (assuming survival) that it makes Cat 2ish status there. gets out south of Jersey and creates gales to its north as it comes back down the coast (watch for potential development if the center - still intact - gets out over water). Ultimately backs SW into the Central Gulf and changes the windflow patterns. Jeanne, meanwhile, makes her hit (or brushby) and then heads round about toward New Orleans ala Andrew, Betsy, & 1947. I don't think he expects Jeanne backing until 5-6 days out, so the threat is really after next weekend.
Huh? *boggle* What you've related makes zero (nada, zilch) sense to me.
Ivan's already caught up in the westerlies. When the dry air gets to him (go look at the water vapor imagery, you'll see what I mean), that will complete his conversion to an system. The door to Florida will be closed by the ridge that will build in behind 's departure. Jeanne will either die in place, or lift out to the northeast, on 's coat tails.
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Kent
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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GENERATORS MUST BE OPERATED OUTSIDE!!!
FATALITIES CAN OCCUR IF USED INDOORS!!!
Please remind everyone to use generators outside only. A couple died in Palm Beach and 4 children were hospitalized due to carbon monoxide poisoning after Hurricane Francis. They were all using a generator inside.
and sadly Three elderly women died today in Montgomery, AL from carbon monoxide poisoning while using a generator during a power outage due to
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I never said that they need to keep a consistency from shift to shift. My contention is that to keep making wild changes to the forecast when the models are as chaotic as they have been the last 12 hours does not really serve a useful purpose. I understand there are a lot of differing personalities and ideas. Some that I agree with and others that I don't. There are certain forecasters that I think are slow to change a forecast when warrented. Others seem to be willing to change if they even slightly disagree with it.
I, personally, do not think that wild changes do any good for public confidence in the forecast. Some people do not think that should be a worry of the forecasters. I am not one of those. I will grant that the change that was made was probably the only one that would have seemed reasonable to me. I still think it will not help confidence if the forecast resumes something similar to Friday morning.
It is really a nit pick more then anything.
PS. FWIW, I am not sure that Jeanne will even be a viable tropical entity this time tomorrow. That would pretty much render worrying about future forecast positions moot.
Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 18 2004 12:49 AM)
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Actually I agreee with you, the should have an view of things all the time. But for whatever reason, that is not how it is set up. This is my perspective, and it is very possible I am wrong, but I've nerer seen anything that supports anything else.
Bill
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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Quote:
Can somebody please post a primer of sorts regarding the most commonly used acronyms (i.e. S, LLC, etc)
The Meteorological Service of Canada has a nice Glossary . Others may have a better source for you.
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From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
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Kent
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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A quote from Max Mayfield:
"I don't remember this happening before in such a short period of time," National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield told reporters, "and the season is only half-over."
It might be a generation before hurricane weather slips back into a quiet phase, he and other experts say.
"The hurricane threat is much greater than it was in the 1970s through early 1990s," said federal meteorologist Stan Goldenberg, who flew around Hurricane in research aircraft as it approached Mobile, Ala. "It could last another 10 to 40 years."
Can anyone please explain this one?
Here is the article:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-917hurricanecycle,0,4485692.story?coll=sfla-news-sfla
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>What you've related makes zero (nada, zilch) sense to me.
It's going to take a little bit of time (if it verifies, it will happen late Saturday night or early Sunday morning). Either a piece of the upper energy (low pressure mirroring a trof split), or the whole system is going to get pushed back southward, then Southwestward. There is model support for both ideas. Then again, you can find model support for about 10 other scenarios too. But we're going to have to watch. The 12Z UKMet from Friday kind of showed the scenario at 500 mb.
UK Met 500mb Vorticity
It might not make sense to you, but if you researched the different possibilities (and granted, I don't go around interpreting the 200/500/700mb charts every day), you would have seen the potential for what the UK Met is doing (or was at 12Z).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I have to say I did not expect this strong of a fight from her. We may have an upset in the making. She might be able to get the convenction wrapped around and start looking better by this evening. So many scenarios. Interesting comments in the 5:00am discussion about the convection pulling the center north. Seems to be what is happening. Still think it may be around the 11:00PM advisory before the models go from a first graders connect the dots to some semblence of readability. Read JB's comments about Jeanne looping and then coming back wsw later in the period. Not sure what to make of that. Seems a bit crazy; but crazy seems to be the norm this season. Who knows?
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Jim
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Glad to see ya back Old Sailor... wondering what happened to ya... Joe Bastardi also forecasted a very similar type track to what you are saying the navy has forecasted for Jeanne (I think his was closer to the New Orleans area)
Gosh, I hope the Navy does NOT rely upon Accuweather for it's forecasts!!!! 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Hate to ask this, but can anyone summarize JB's high protein induced ideas this morning? I mean the last thing I heard was that both entities turn WSW and end up in the GOM. How anyone could say that with a straight face is beyond me, but this has been an unusual season. BTW, Jeanne is looking much better in the last few hours; and she is moving. Cheers!!
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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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My husband and I had a big laugh this morning when we looked at 's forecast for Jeanne: with it's big "circle of uncertainty" it looked like the tongue-in-cheek forecast that made yesterday!
Skeetobite's forecast can be found on page 8 of this current thread.
And for comparison...HRC's 5-day forecast map
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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JB has had a really good taste of the limelight recently. I don't think his forecasts are any different they have ever been. He is basing everything he says on weather patterns. Now having said this: The experts are now saying that the weather patterns are changing big time. This means the collective meterological pundits do not now have a good set of data to predict what will happen next. That has been obvious this year. But, on the other hand the data has never been scrutinized to the degree that is now capable, by the viewing media (internet) I have had two friends become obsessed with weather watching this season when I used to get laughed out of the building for talking about weather. This is going to have to be a time where every one stops expecting answers and starts looking and studying because this has not occurred in anyone's life time (last 120 years at least) The records are poor at best and the fisherman's tales make up a lot of what we believed about the weather prior to the invention of research. To come on this site or any other, and pitch a fit because the or any other meterological science based industry can not guess right, is shear idiocy. Any ones observations are valid at this point. Go outside and look into the sky. If you see a cloud, you have made a scientific observation. Enjoy this opportunity as much as possible to be at the ground level of new research about new (to us) weather patterns. The guessing game has never been as exciting as it is now. Don't bash any one!!! No one has the correct answer for sure. Mourn for lost people, don't blame. IT is no one's fault on this mortal plane. There,, I have gotten 300 posts out of my system.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I'm just going to do a short overview on some of the main models and their trends.
ETA-has pushing off the mid-atlantic states and then diving SE to S later on. There is a tilted trough in the west and a high ampltidu ridge in the east. Then by Sunday the movement becomes NE as the ridge digs down.
GFDL- has Jeanne by 26.5N , 57 W by Thursday far away from land.
GFS- has s remmants coming back down to Florida and crossing the Florida peninsula and then back into the GOM. Also, the has Jeanne doinng flips and the next two storms recurving!
NOGAPS- also has Jeanne doing a flip, then heading in the direction of Florida.
The overall trend of the models is now east of the forecast, will they put a flip in their forecast. This is one forecast for the , they have a lot of variables with this one.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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