MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
I guess the question is, do and Jeanne want to go on a blind date? (blind, because neither one has an eye right now)
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MO stormspotter
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Quote:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
can some one translate that link into plain english???
I guess the question is, do and Jeanne want to go on a blind date? (blind, because neither one has an eye right now)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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I am by no mean an expert but then how do you define it! Anyway, I think Jeanne will reform it's just going to take some time, just because something looks ragged and bent out of shape one day doen't mean it will stay like that. Almost every model develops the storm and the shear ahead of it will back down, so it will re-enter a favorable eviorment. All this stuff about the LLC, it can form a new LLC. Lets hope for the worst, so we can get better than it; that's what I always say! (only kidding)
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Brad
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That looks like an error--I'm pretty sure that's the same language from the 11 am Spanish one, but I can't find the 11 to check. (I did look at it at 11, though, so I think it's the same one.)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Jeanne down to 50kts, 1000mb but now off the coast into water near 20.2N and 71.5W
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MO stormspotter
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can someone translate that disucussion in to plain English?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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guess hurricane center is just ahead of me,,1002mb and 45Kt winds =50mph.
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Rasvar
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OK, that makes more sense. Someone screwed up and sent out the 16A in Spanish with the 16 data. It had all the wording right for a 16A though.
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Jim
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Brad
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and 20.1/71.6 Scott--a little different than what you posted, but not important. So it's only about .5 degree south of projected track.
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MrSpock
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Sorry, this is an example of why Vulcans don't tell jokes....
The minors out the circulation as it drifts it southward offshore.
The ETA emerges off of the Mid-Atlantic coast and actually re-organizes it as it moves south, then southwest.
The reason the model shows for doing this, is that now both models are strengthening a trof in the N.E. U.S.
IF the ETA's scenario is correct, what would likely happen is Jeanne would have to move around it. I believe Clarke gave that scenario earlier. The ETA actually has both systems interact, but the problem is, it loses Jeanne, and its reflection of it is probably not accurate.
Here is a link that loops the images so you can see the progression.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
At this point, it is my opinion that the remnants of are at least likely to move off of the coast, since this has been the trend. What happens after that is unknown.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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yep, i actually had a diff sat view of the 20.2 and 71.5 kinda odd that is .1 n and east of them. Its not ne. Anyways sat is probably off a tad.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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I think that the ETA is correct also as I think I metioned in a earlier post. The ETA has Jeanne doing loops and all sorts of weird stuff but I think that could happen if they get close enough. Also, some models have backtracking and back into the Gulf, there must be some errors there.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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The ETA may have a better handle on now than it did while in the Carib. since it is over land, and probably has better initializations. Let's just say I am glad I don't have to forecast this one.
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Brad
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Scrott: Or the is off a bit--your position might be more accurate. Pretty tough to pinpoint within .1 degree. I was just pointing out that the pegged it differently, in case anyone thought you were giving the 's position; I didn't mean to imply you were wrong.
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Brad
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And I also didn't mean to call you "ScRott"
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LI Phil
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Models...
Obviously they've got a good handle on Jeanne.
More models...
and an even better handle on .
DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?
Sorry.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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recon shows pressure now at 1004mb.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?
Yes, but it's a secret.
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rd522525
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Are you still leaning towards your early am post?
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MO stormspotter
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You know, we really could use 's rain here in Missouri.... 
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