rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Interesting that Accuweather still holds true to the track- Jeanne will pass thru central florida and on to the gulf- then panhandle?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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LI Phil....that is the best laugh I have had in days....Thanks
Does anybody really know?
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Check this out...from the horse's mouth...
"FRIDAY AFTERNOON POST: BIGGEST TROPICAL CHALLENGE OF SEASON STARES FORECASTERS IN THE FACE...AT LEAST I THINK SO.
I dont think I have ever seen anything like this... a forecast so fraught with uncertainties."
And here I thought it was just me...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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yes
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AdmittedHacker
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MrSpock... is that even feasible? re-emerging into the Atlantic in the D.C. area and turning southwest.... coming back down the coast toward Florida seems highly unlikely.... but if so, would the water temps support intensification back to T.S. or (God forbid) hurricane status?
How much more abuse can we take in Florida...?
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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As you said, probably highly unlikely. If it were to move in that direction, wouldn't it possibly have Jeanne to deal with?
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Where is it? That was my first impression about an hour ago when I went looking for it then...now however I see the IR-4 showing a convective burst near the reported center but we have a 2mb increase in pressure? Survival is an issue.
as for models nobody can find it initiaizations are all over the place so they are useless now.
The convection moving NW in the gulf of Panama caught my eye...
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doug
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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it is possible, and the gulf stream is out there. I can't see this becoming major issue again, as I think it is hard for storms moving that way after being ripped up over land to regenerate. After it goes east of Hatteras, the water is warm.
I wouldn't worry about that scenario now though, as it will be tough to verify. In fact, it could actually spare Fla. from Jeanne, and may not affect it again either. Too many possibilites.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yet that is EXACTLY what JB is opining in the midday...to wit...
"So the call is for to get to the coast tomorrow night and start south, hugging the coast all the way to Florida Monday morning then cutting west southwest into the gulf. Just what is left of it will have to be determined at another date, but folks north of the center on the coast as it pushes south should not be surprised when northeast gales develop as the high pushes it down, for a 12-24 hour period, and that goes all the way to the Carolinas by Monday, after starting in Jersey tomorrow."
I think the man is nuts right now, and who can blame him with all the crazy s--- us weather nuts have been thru the past six weeks...can that canadian high be that strong? If so, gimme some of that canadian high  knowwhaI'msayin?
TGIF das all I can say...
I dare anyone to lay out a forecast for either of these two puppies right now...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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Looking more like an open wave. Hope I'm right. Most systems don't fair well in those mountains. To me it's 50/50 that a recon will not find an LLC and at 5pm, call it an open wave. 
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Kdubs
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Considering the fact that we have 3 active systems right now and I'm sure there will be plenty more this season, when posting a thought or forecast about a specific system, please reference which system it is. Makes it easier for slow people like me to catch up with the conversation.
Thanks everyone
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South Orlando 
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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LI Phil... thanks! I'm gonna quit worrying for now. They obviously have absolutely NO IDEA where or Jeanne will end up. I'm going to wait until the model summary stops looking like a box of fireworks exploded... then I'll start paying attention again.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Clark,
You left out an important option. backs SW from VA through Louisiana and emerges into the western gulf changing the flow. Here's an encapsulation of JB's comments from today. Personally, I'm not sold on the low level swirl. It looks like a Pacific hurricane that degenerated days ago. Can it come back? Maybe. Will it come back? Maybe (see comments below).
Spock,
You're falling into the same trap the is with the right bias of all the models. I'd give < 15% shot at the Carolinas.
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For Clark:
Now I live here and don't want people thinking I'm wishcasting anything my way. I wouldn't even make that call just due to impartiality that is sorely lacking on every hurricane fan site. I don't even agree with Joe that the setup will verify. My way of thinking would be IF Jeanne was to cross FL or the Straits, it would be slow but not make it as far west as here. That's a 8-10 day out opinion. Jeanne could easily be long gone by then anyway. But he draws some interesting LA parallels, so I figured I'd throw out a legal synopsis for anyone interested:
1) (Previous Idea) - Similar H20 temperature profile & neutral-slightly negative to his analog 2002.
2) Galveston record high (last set in 2002, Isidore shows up a week later)
3) He likes a cross between 1947 and Betsy for a track at this point.
4) His pulse idea of the increments of 3-6 degrees west with each landfall as the SW Atlantic High backs to its summer crescendo.
5) Models have been north and right biased all year in their early phases. Corrections would be farther west, but even if gets north of 30 and hit N FL, the circulation would back SW. Joe doesn't see it getting above 27, and the turn to the west (painfully slow) is not for another 5 or 6 days.
6) He likes Jeanne at Cat 2 or 3 when it turns west (which means look out in C&S FL).
7) Accomplished via weakening and splitting (as I wondered yesterday if that was why the models showed the loop-d-loop) and backing 's upper feature dives SW (trof split) into the Gulf. The eastern ridge is powerful. 's upper remains change the windflow in the Western Gulf. The ridge in the SW builds and bridges NE overtop of the mid-Altantic States (similar pattern from the 3 storms named in the title).
8) Said pattern argues for storms (when there) to move west into the central Gulf.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Can't fall into a trap when you don't have a forecast. Just simply spitting out model data.
Edit for comment:
Yesterday when I blasted accu. I stated that I felt the threat area was from Fla. to the Carolinas. That is a generalization, not a forecast.
Edited by MrSpock (Fri Sep 17 2004 07:04 PM)
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newbie
Unregistered
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so, in basic easy terms...is Jeanne finished? If not, then when will they know?
worried in Florida
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> so, in basic easy terms...is Jeanne finished? If not, then when will they know?
Heh....who wants to take a shot at this one...I'm not touching it.
EDIT: BTW, wunderground just added something called "storm history/verification" to their tropical suites...check it out!
Ivan
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 17 2004 07:08 PM)
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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LI Phil
Here's what happened with the Jeanne models. They called me and some of the other newbies and asked us to feed the models... 
Seems the poor guys are exhausted!
At least you veteren weather guys know how we feel now. Its a perfect depiction of what the newbies are thinking!
As much as I love the and regard them as the ultimate experts I gotta say your post gave me the best laugh I've had in awhile.
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Mooshie-SC
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
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So is South Carolina officially out of the woods now when it comes to Jeanne?
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
I dare anyone to lay out a forecast for either of these two puppies right now...
Then with the gauntlet thrown - I shall step up and swag myself some forecasts 
Ivan. This mess will exit the US off the Carolinas, spin up a bit then move on in a few days while strengthening just enough to freak everyone out - it will then become extra-tropical and go bye-bye to wreak havok in the UK.
Jeanne - poor, tired girl will start strengthening but never fully recovers. look for landfall in SE (sorry guys) Florida as a barely-holding-onto-life Cat 1 middle of the week.
Karl - yeah - the fish may never recover from him
I guess all that remains is to post this. Anyone have any crow recipies handy - you know, just in case? 
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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LET ME TAKE A SHOT AT HER....!!!
SHE IS DEAD.. A DEAD DUCK!
how's that for a wanna be weather woman
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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