Redbird1
Unregistered
|
|
Ed for what it is worth............this is the only place where I can get a lot of useful information all in one shot. Keep up the great work to the moderators and the other posters.
|
Redbird1
Unregistered
|
|
Frank it is great to see you made it safely.
I had a rotten feeling about Jeanne on Friday night even after reading that it supposedly was going to be a minimal problem. Had one of those way frightening dreams about Jeanne and today pull this site up and she is making a u turn towards Florida. Reminds of me a cockroach I was trying to kill in the garage that no matter how badly it was wounded, it kept creeping a long and going in circles. I took a much needed break yesterday from watching storm tracks. Again so glad you are okay.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
thanks redbird, me and my two bassets weathered the storm just fine, I think they slept through the whole thing..... and I really appreciate your concern,, and also the great information that I got from the board during my "to evacuate, or not to evacuate" ordeal.... it was just fantastic support
we along the MS coast was VERY fortunate..... had continued on that NNW course, we would be experiencing the devastation along our coast.... was a tremendous storm, one for the records for sure.... I am still trying to get the official storm surge.... I have heard unofficial reports ranging from 15-30 feet.... that's a tremendous amount of surge... my best guess would be in the lower to mid 20's, but the wave heights also added to the tremendous damage... this storm surge was not typical for a Cat 3 storm..
as for Jeanne who knows what she is going to do, latest model runs are a little disturbing, but we have plenty of time to monitor her progress.... I'd hate to see a repeat of the Betsy track from 65, but its still way to early to tell.... but just having her where she is and all the unknowns in itself must be most stressing to the floridians who have taken way more hits than they deserve .... maybe she'll just fade away and die off... now wouldn't that be great for all....
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
15-20 storm surge, wasn't Camille's like 26 feet. Wow, your dogs slept through that, my dog hides himself deep in a closet when it's lighting, I sometimes have trouble finding him. Glad that your okay, your a great poster.
Today's model run's are quite disturbing for Florida at least. They have that ridge building around it and then there's a weakness and it's goes right to it's target Florida. Anytime you have a ridge build around a storm the ridge helps the outflow but usually makes the storm suck up some dry air. This is very simliar to that track of Betsy and some too, once that ridge breaks these storms zoom out of there so be prepared for an unexpected hit.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
Karl looks very impressive on sat, very strong convection almost everywhere, does anyone think it has a shot at CAT 5, I think it does.
Jeanne looks like she's trying to close the circulation but covection seems to be firing up on the east vector of the storm, maybe we'll have another LLC form there. Today it looks like it will do some strengthing. It will continue to follow that trough out to sea until the ridge builds.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
For those who are concerned about us in Florida. We appreciate your thoughts and prayers. I would like to comment that although this has been a terrible hurricane season for Florida from hits, the good side of this is that people are now aware that it can happen, WILL happen, has happened and CAN happen again. It is unfortunate that it took this kind of a wake up call for people to realize the truth. The good in all of this is people are staying prepared. A lot of people in my area, Inland, have decided to leave their cane preps up until the season is over. They have taken down just a few boards to let the light in and that is all. It is refreshing to see bottled water in crates sitting in the store in appropriate places so that this will not be a start from scratch event if indeed we do have to do it again. I just checked the pix and Jeanne is starting to resemble a tropical entity again.I noticed some kids beginning to prepare for halloween, I wonder if more kids will come dressed as hurricanes, than political figures this year....scary!  Some one I was talking to yesterday commented that there was not one single area of Florida that had not been directly effected by a hurricane this year, even if the damage was not overly terrible. I lost a total of 4 shingles, and some dead branches(small ones) and raked and mulched a lot of green leaves. I was very lucky. In answer to some one's question as to whether Florida has a bull's eye on it this year. I am thinking that the answer is yes. and crossed each other's path and drew his own., We only need one more different path directly across Central Florida to have all possible landfalls covered this year. 3 times is the charm. Let's hope that karl does not get a taste for orange juice.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
|
|
Keith, I looked at the model spread, and almost all take it well out to sea. Which ones were threatening Fla.?
|
DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
|
|
That is an awesome site, thank you very much
Keith: Anytime you have a ridge build around a storm the ridge helps the outflow but usually makes the storm suck up some dry air. This is very simliar to that track of Betsy and some too, once that ridge breaks these storms zoom out of there so be prepared for an unexpected hit
Dear God you know how to scare the c*%p outta me. Do you really see the potential for this happening and what do we watch for to fore see, (as much as this crazy weather will allow), this happening. I am ending my summer term next week and have finals Mon - Thurs. I can not miss anymore time from school or I will lose my 4.0.
(pulling hair)
--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
Keith, I think the official surge for Camille was around 25 to 26 feet, with some area's claiming a little unofficial higher...
I had 22 feet at my house.... and I was 25 miles east of the center of the storm... Jeanne does look a little better on the vis sat pix at the moment..
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
I got to stop using Accuweather.com for the models, they didn't update them. I'll be editing that post. Thanks
Edit: Looked at the new model runs, your right Mr. Spock most of them have it going out to see, the I think is one of them. I wouldn't trust that one but it may be right. The UKMET has the ridge building over Jeanne and the simliar situation that I said.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Sun Sep 19 2004 10:55 AM)
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
That could happen, but when I looked at the models the website didn't update them, I was seeing model runs from yesterday afternoon. But yes that could happen, the models are going to constantly change, so don't be surprised if one model run points at Bremuda and the next has it going into the GOM.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Hey Frank,
Our newspaper this morning says the surge was an estimated 30 feet. Not sure where they got that from though. I don't think it could be higher than Camille which was 26 feet.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
I read a report out of the Pensacola area that the waves in escambia bay were 35 feet. I don't know if that is a storm surge or just wind effects, but that is a bay!! for gosh sakes..ioui
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
|
|
Thank you for this site -- I sincerely wish I had found it before .
I have a question about Jeanne & the loop that she might make. At the expected location of that loop, would crossing over her own track make a difference in her strength? And would it be a different result if a loop happened in the GOM?
|
leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
|
|
New forecast / discussion is up for Jeanne, it pretty much echoes what we can see on sat (more organized circulation, but no substantial central convection yet). They're still stumped on this one
--------------------
[witty phrase here]
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Frank you were 25 miles east of the center you said? I thought you lived in Ms?
|
clueless
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Okay I know that you all have explained how this loop will happen, but I don't get it - could you explain it in little words so that I am sure to understand. Here is what I don't get
1. Why in the world would it go in a loop at all.
2. How come the loop is the forecast when none of the models from which I think I understand the forecasted track to come show anything like a loop.
3. Someone just said that despite the loop the storm won't come to FL even though it is pointed straight at us - Ubby says it looks like it is getting off the turnpike and heading on vacation. What will turn it before it gets to us.
I kind of understand the general nature of troughs and fronts - troughs pull a storm and fronts push and turn it - I think - but beyond that I am clueless (hence the handle)
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Richie storm surge was about 12 ft ( abouts) but with the wave action of up to 18 ft,, that would make it 30 ft.
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Quote:
Thank you for this site -- I sincerely wish I had found it before .
I have a question about Jeanne & the loop that she might make. At the expected location of that loop, would crossing over her own track make a difference in her strength? And would it be a different result if a loop happened in the GOM?
Welcome aboard, I hope the healing is beginning in Punta Gorda.
Jeanne probably isn't generating a whole lot of upwelling, with her current low strength. The upwelling is normally only a factor for the very strong storms, which I don't think Jeanne would be expected to attain. There is some residual from cooler water from , but that is fading as time goes by.
So, no, I doubt it would effect Jeanne's strength, but I wouldn't expect Jeanne to be much more than a Cat 2.
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
|
StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Quote:
15-20 storm surge, wasn't Camille's like 26 feet. Wow, your dogs slept through that, my dog hides himself deep in a closet when it's lighting, I sometimes have trouble finding him. Glad that your okay, your a great poster.
Today's model run's are quite disturbing for Florida at least. They have that ridge building around it and then there's a weakness and it's goes right to it's target Florida. Anytime you have a ridge build around a storm the ridge helps the outflow but usually makes the storm suck up some dry air. This is very simliar to that track of Betsy and some too, once that ridge breaks these storms zoom out of there so be prepared for an unexpected hit.
LOL. Sorry, Keith laughing with you not at you. You sound like my management. Can we plan our unscheduled events for the next six month?
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
