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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: scottsvb]
      #29270 - Sun Sep 19 2004 12:12 PM

Quote:

Clueless,,,the models have been showing a loop. Also there is a strong ridge building now over the eastern U.S. Circulation around this ridge is clockwise so since the remenents are on the east side it will go south then sw then w ,,,just like clock work.




Computer models? I thought the forecaster was trying to sign the tracking map.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #29271 - Sun Sep 19 2004 12:14 PM

It just matters on how much of a jog w she gets before her loop. Models are showing the ridge will hang more over the eastern U.S. instead of off the coast so then they want to move her eventually slowly out to sea. I think she will hang around 70w then move back after a brief loop. Hard to tell the dark side is, isnt it???? Like Yoda would say!

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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #29272 - Sun Sep 19 2004 12:17 PM

Quote:

Scottsvb,

Look at this WV Loop, what do you think that ridge will do to Jeanne's current northward movement?



\
Short term it may nudge it NNE or NE until the ridge flattens out some, but I think it is already stalling it. Could eventually start a slow SW or WSW movement. I think we are all in the same boat as the NHC, meaning, we have no idea.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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poetdi
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 14
Loc: Maitland, FL
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: clueless]
      #29273 - Sun Sep 19 2004 12:18 PM

I'm a clueless newbie too - picked a heck of a time to learn about hurricanes - guess living in Central Florida gives one a false sense of security - or should I say GAVE us a false sense - no more! At any rate, I watched Steve Lyons about an hour ago and he showed the remnants of Ivan flowing down the east coast and Jeanne out there - my question is will Ivan's remnants have anything to do with Jeanne's path? I know there are lots of other factors involved (thanks for this site, again, so we can all learn!) - but will Ivan still affect Jeanne?

Poetdi


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: scottsvb]
      #29274 - Sun Sep 19 2004 12:18 PM

Thanks,

I'm still skeptical she will ever be a threat to the US, but I'm not even going to attempt to predict where she's going.

Ivan? Have we heard from his remnants lately?

Karl...why can't they all behave like him? Beautiful CAT IV to spin the fish!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Sun Sep 19 2004 12:27 PM)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #29275 - Sun Sep 19 2004 12:30 PM

Quote:

Thanks,

I'm still skeptical she will ever be a threat to the US, but I'm not even going to attempt to predict where she's going.

Ivan? Have we heard from his remnants lately?

Karl...why can't they all behave like him? Beautiful CAT IV to spin the fish!




With the way this season has gone, I won't relax on Karl until he starts that NW - NNW turn.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #29276 - Sun Sep 19 2004 12:44 PM

I can assure you that Karl isn't going to be a threat to the US. That TUTT is very strong and there gives me no reason to believe that the TUTT would weaken that much that it would allow Karl to go on his NW course, I'm 75% sure.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: Fletch]
      #29277 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:01 PM

Fletch,

You're absolutely right, with the way this season is going! Still, Karl is behaving textbook...Jeanne, on the other hand, makes forecasting Ivan look like child's play...

Loopy she is...loopy.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Karl's Affect on Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #29278 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:05 PM

I can't help but notice that the models are showing the remnants of Ivan breaking through that Azores ridge in the Atlantic and then Karl following through. Now why don't the models show Jeanne following Karl and the remnants of Ivan to that big low by Greenland, wouldn't Jeanne get handed off from one upper air feature to the other?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: LI Phil]
      #29279 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:11 PM

Quote:

Fletch,

You're absolutely right, with the way this season is going! Still, Karl is behaving textbook...Jeanne, on the other hand, makes forecasting Ivan look like child's play...

Loopy she is...loopy.




Should have been named Sybil!!

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #29280 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:24 PM

It depends on how long Jeanne sits over that loop as well as how deep the warm waters are in that part of the ocean. A day or two won't make a huge difference, but longer than that will. A shallowewr depth of the warm waters would lead to a lesser amount of time before the storm begins to be negatively affected by upwelling of colder waters.

For an example of what can happen in the Gulf with a looping storm, see Roxanne of 1995. That storm hung around there for nearly a week, able to maintain itself for awhile but eventually weakened and moved into Mexico. The NHC preliminary report on the storm is available here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995roxanne.html

--------------------
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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: clueless]
      #29281 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:29 PM

A storm may wobble in a loop on its own accord when steering currents are weak, or may traverse a loop when the steering currents are forecasted to change. For instance, say Jeanne begins to travel north and then northeast as a trough picks it up. But, the trough then moves away without completely picking up Jeanne and a ridge builds in over the storm. This would tend to shift the storm back west, but may result in a loop to do so -- due to the prior movement and speed of the storm (think momentum), it can't simply stop on a dime and turn west.

And really, there's no one out there who can definitively say this storm will not affect Florida -- or any landmass out there, for that matter.

As an aside, when the models offer wildly diverging options -- think of the tracks spreading out in a pattern like a spider -- the course of least regret is to forecast a slow motion through the forecast period. This pattern usually happens when none (or few) of the models are getting a good handle on the storm -- and with a weak storm trying to reform like Jeanne, this certainly qualifies.

--------------------
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Wxman Richie, Scott, Terri [Re: LI Phil]
      #29282 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:30 PM

Wxman RIchie, I also read reports of a 30 foot storm surge and heard them mention this high of a surge on TV reports as well, yet to be confirmed IMO.... but trust me, it was tremendous... I guess it doesn't matter if its 20 feet or so, if you have 10-20 foot waves added to it.... still catastrophic, no question about it, from what I've seen on TV, the damage inflicted by Ivan's surge is eerily similar to what I remember from Camille.... it just didn't do the wind damage that Camille did....

Scott, the eye of Camille went into western coastal cities of Bay St. Louis and the Pass Christian areas ... that is approximately 25 miles west of my house, thus I was in the right/east quad of Camille... I'm in the central part of the MS coast.... Biloxi, a wonderful place to live on the beach...

Terri, thanks for the prayers... this is a great web site... I just got home from mass, everyone was counting their blessing along the coast in MS... we dodge a 44 magnum bullet with this one... I almost feel guilty because we went unscathed, and poor eastern AL and the FL panhandle has been devastated...

some of the stories coming out of the panhandle for those who rode out the storm are unbelievable... still 14 or so unaccounted for at the moment


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: Heather]
      #29283 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:37 PM

Other factors have to be considered as well -- is there enough organization to the activity? Are upper-level conditions favorable for regeneration (low shear)? What about sea-surface temperatures? Is there dry air in the mid-levels to inhibit strengthening? And, ofr storms exiting off of the coast, how much of the remnant storm is left that can reorganize again? There are more factors, so these are just a sample.

With Ivan, there is a preponderance of dry air in the region (resulting in some very nice weather in the southeast, I might add!) and upper-level conditions are not particularly favorable for redevelopment. Plus, the remnant circulation isn't in great shape and water temperatures off of the Delmarva, where it exited land, are not particularly high (warm, yes, but marginally sufficient).

It's a moot point, though, as the remnant storm is exiting off to the northeast into the maritimes as an extratropical system. I think we've seen the last of Ivan, thankfully.

As another aside, the high building in behind Ivan is giving those up and won the eastern seaboard a taste of winter -- somewhat of a cold-air damming event. The cloud cover isn't there, thankfully, but temperatures are chilly for this time of year into the Carolinas. Later in winter, if something like this set up (a bit further to the east and stronger, though)...it'd be downright cold all the way to the Gulf coast, with highs struggling to reach 50 even here in north Florida on occasion.

But back to hurricane season...

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
And if you thought Dynagel was crazy [Re: Frank P]
      #29284 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:39 PM

Check this out:
A cool idea how to stop hurricanes-
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/accent/epaper/2004/09/19/a1d_ron_col_0919.html

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Just don't get Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #29285 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:39 PM

The right side of hurricanes does tend to develop more than the left-hand side. It's not always a factor of the forward motion contributing to higher wind speeds on the right hand side of the motion. Gulf storms take this to an extreme -- often times, most of the convection and heavy rains are found on the north and east sides of the storm. Ivan is not an exception.

The fine-mesh mesoscale models are relatively new entities and are still being developed and worked on as time progresses. They are used moreso for research purposes - such as modeling convection - than for track and intensity forecasting (though that may be where we are headed down the line).

--------------------
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #29286 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:43 PM

cool, literally.... now what would happen if you set up these louvers to draw the cool water to the surface, and then the hurricance changed directions... outside the envelope of the louver setup.... but sure as hell beats the idea of dropping a nuclear bomb into one, which has to be the dumbest idea of all time...

fact is hurricanes will be around long after all of us are gone... and we don't want to fool around with mother nature...

Edited by Frank P (Sun Sep 19 2004 01:45 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #29287 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:44 PM

Well, it's indented...not really indentured, unless it's in the services of someone else or is actually indenting something!

I digress.

Georgia can get a storm hit from a storm not directly pointed at it, but any hit on the state is rare. Plus, ultimately, a storm making landfall somewhere has to be pointed at that place at some given point in time. In any case, while rare, there are cases where a storm paralleled the Florida coast and turned NW into Georgia, as well as cases where the storm traveled directly into Georgia.

The coastline is so small and shaped in such a peculiar manner as to make landfalls there rare, however.

--------------------
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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Karl's Affect on Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #29288 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:48 PM

Because the remnants of Ivan are too far to the north and the trough not expected to dive far enough south to have a significant (note how I didn't say no) impact on the future track of the storm.

The system to pick up Karl is already in place there -- an upper-low to its west -- though it may become enhanced just slightly by the remnant trough from Ivan departing the eastern seaboard. Or, the trough from Ivan may ride up and over the ridge (almost a Rex block-type of pattern)...it remains to be seen. Bottom line though, Karl is one for the fishes.

--------------------
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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: And if you thought Dynagel was crazy [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #29289 - Sun Sep 19 2004 01:49 PM

I don't think people should be trying to stop hurricanes, they are a natural process and should not be tampered by man. That being said, towing icebergs to lower the temp of the water is not a good idea, first of all that could upset the whole currents in the ocean, changing the prevailing wind currents and who knows what else, this would also kill the fish and oceanic wildlife. If we are going to try and destroy a hurricane why don't we consider the side affects. This is one topic I strongly disagree with!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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