schmoo
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 12
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This is a quote from a local met where I am. Does there seem any validity to it? I thought I read a post from Clark saying this didnt seem to be panning out.
Thanks from a newbie 
"Amazing as it may sound, the remants of may regenerate into a weak tropical storm and bring tropical storm conditions to the Louisiana coast by Wednesday or Thursday. This possibility has been discussed on various sites and the models (at least some of them) have clearly been tracking a 500mb center around the rebuilding ridge.
The eta clearing has a weak surface low moving from east to west across our coast on Wednesday evening.
This is the ghost of !!!! It will be completely wild, if this happens. Stay tuned! It shouldn't turn into a big deal, but a tropical storm is certainly possible.
And we definitely need the rain. The west winds blasting behind has parched us out completely!!!!"
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/12/images/eta_slp_072s.gif
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Kent
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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The Betsy/Jeanne correlation is a bit disconcerting because pretty much the whole coast of S. Fla. is one big barrier island. We live off Las Olas and A1A and every Dec. we are painfully reminded. When you're stuck on the east side of the bridges during the annual boatshow you tend to think about it. When Andrew came through we had to evacuate as we were told our entire house would be submerged. I just remember having very little time to look around and decide what to save.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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"It shouldn't turn into a big deal, but a tropical storm is certainly possible."
A tropical storm is a big deal, he's like saying he's going to be wrong.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Keith,
The part about moron was a quote from Joe! Did you read his afternoon update?
I'm a big JB fan, don't always agree with him, but I can't get enough of him.
Make sure you read things through before you start making accusations.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Oh sorry, didn't see the quotes.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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How long will it take for the model makers to initialize runs on the Recon report that was just entered?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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thanks phil.. found a great link on hurricanecity that has four weather maps for betsy which really do resemble the current set up
figures its not there now.. was the main reason i signed up for Accuweather this morning, to see it... figures
anyway thanks guppie and watching loops and football
thanks
as for bastardi.. there is always a method to his madness
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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You're welcome, bobbi
>>> as for bastardi.. there is always a method to his madness
I love it when he nails one no body else saw. He needs a few minor miracles for what he's been dispensing lately, but if he gets that call right...
Saw andy1tom was checking things out ("who's online") so we know he's OK.
Still concerned about the rick...but it seems everyone else is now accounted for...thanks to all for your concern!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I think we have a circukation going and if this continues or next depression.The rule of thumb is 10' between the center of the storm to the trof for the trof to have an effect.Eventially Karl will get pulled out but will this little system go N?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?
According to the discussion it has a 1008mb low with it. It sure is small compared to Karl. Should be a fish spinner.. 
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I like JB because he is not afraid to throw some ideas out there, but I would have to say that he is out to lunch on saying that Texas will see any tropical activity. Sometimes he can be really on to something but this is one of those times that he is not.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Let us know next thursday, ss!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Thanks Lonny been looking at since this morning.Yea it is small but if it stays weak in Karl's path and it should would probably track more W or WNW.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The UKMET is scaring me, it's suggesting the high will erode and retrograde, allowing the storm to ride up the coast starting from NC and upwards. Scary, but I would love to take this storm away from Florida, they don't need it. Let's see how it trends in the upcoming days.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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TD 13 just gave me a flashback of Isabel. Every year we have a CV system hit the Carolinas could this one be it? It's starting in the simliar area but since it's so close to Karl, that should limit it's development. I'll be watching this one. I'm dead tired, going to sleep. 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I have a Question. Is there anyway that Jeanne could wrap that left over energy into her own circulation since is not a circulation center any more but just some left over clouds. Then those models of bringing Jeanne across Florida into Texas would make sense only the storm would be a combination of and Jean making it Jevan?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Looks like my original 5 day track forecast is still holding... Watch out JB!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I thought I was seeing something different than the official forecast was saying but I figured I was not smart enough to say it. But It does look like your forecast when you get a good water Vapor loop. BTW I love your maps they are so neat and simple to read.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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And for my next trick, I'll make a tropical storm appear out of thin air!
I'm sorry, but that's what JB is getting at if he thinks is going to amount to anything again. There's nothing left of it out there! There's some wind along a tightened pressure gradient and a small piece of vorticity, but nothing at the surface. The main storm has long gone off into the Atlantic.
I wish I knew what he was seeing, both with and Jeanne...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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A 500mb reflection isn't anything at the surface. With proximity to land as well as quite a bit of dry air engulfing what is there...I see it as highly unlikely. Whatever is along the base of the ridge may kick up the winds a tad, but even that isn't going to be much.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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