Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
Fantastic Kent, Thanks a million!!
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
and its raining here..
a bit windy too..
think jeanne is intensifying..
my brother finally took down his shutters... prob will get jeanne tomorrow night (lol) and well...
ivan is visible but not a storm but does have weather and changes the air flow of the way
karl isnt going wnw .. agree with guppie on this one, worried on too much talk about models and am getting sick to death of hearing about the models (something I NEVER thought I would say EVER when I used to beg SNONUT to talk more about models...who knew) and jeanne isnt going north if you ask me tho maybe a short term illusion..
and im sick of cones and five day forecasts
you know what i would like?
some old time forecasting, talk and beginning to enjoy what i call the "outlaw forecasters" who arent afraid to say what they see, take a chance, go out on a limb and will add Norcross to that because he said on Friday in the afternoon that the track was all "supposition" and he said sarcastically "im sure they have lots of reasons why they think jeanne will do this" so add norcross to the list
respect but think they are stonewalling it on this one and hoping it plays out the way they want and a door opens out of a bad situation and it races off... which to me is a gamble more than anything else
if it was just bastardi screaming into the wind or someone here online ... or (shrugging shoulders) the tooth fairy well fine but its EVERYONE and NWS everywhere seem to be just writing what they think
maybe its time to rething the situation
bobbi
ps... not real excited about whats on Accuweather, if anyone has any good suggestions what to look at that i cant get elsewhere please pm me so i can check it out, thank u
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
I have been seening the UKMET model in particular mainly because it is the outlier for now at least and I always like to see what's causing it to be an outlier. Apparently the system that will be bringing snow to the rockies will lift up into Canada, and trigger a secondary system to form south of it when it's in Canada, this system combined with the snow producer will erode the ridge from the north allowing Jeanne to skim the east coast. Also, most of the models have really been making the Azores high strong, were talking like omega block strong, 1045 mbs, I wonder how that will affect the tracks of these storms. I too tried right now to look into it, have to see tom.
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Well, I happen to like for a number of reasons, not the least of which is their modeling suite...that probably wouldn't interest you.
Also, the "hires graphics" section, which is where I have grabbed a number of attachments recently.
They also have Henry Margusity, the severe weather expert, who also happens to know a bunch about hurricanes.
Then there's Joe B and his videos...just ask steve, worth my $.52/day just for his commentary.
They also have a "severe weather" section which is most helpful when t-storms threaten.
They used to give you free access to something known as "Radar Plus" which, in addition to some awesome graphics, has a "future weather predictor" tool, which lets you graphically see what the weather will be three hours from now. ie..when t-storms approach, it will "anticipate" the weather from now up to three hours into the future, on a radar loop. The free trial was pretty cool, but I'm not paying any more than I already am.
What else...you can download forecasts to your PDA...15 day forecasts (worthless, but at least they try)...historical data...what was the weather in your area 3 years ago today...it will tell you...2 billion different types of radar/sat...
I use it mostly for JB and the model suites, but there is a bunch of stuff...just click away and explore. I find something new every day.
EDIT: Just noticed this, but I think it's a nice touch that all NFL teams are wearing a "40" on their helmets!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sun Sep 19 2004 08:50 PM)
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
latest recon shows a 994 mb.... previous recon was 996 mb
max fl winds now at 61K.... previous recon was 46K
lat is 24.71 n... previous recon lat was 24.37 w....
long 72.06n... previous recon long was 72.33 w....
that's up north .34 degrees and over east .27 degrees since last recon....
appears to be slowly strengthening.... and drifting basically to the NE
On 's remnants... anyone looking at that system as it stands right now with absolutely no convection at all and can predict it to be anything of any significant is not a scientist but a psychic.... but stranger things have happened I guess...
|
Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
|
|
yes Bobbie, ghost of showing in Melbourne NWS discussion and short term forcast now. If you look at Melbourne radar can see a rain band moving sw towards the Cape area. Fun with Jeanne. Oh, and take a look at IR floater top left and see moisture of remnant entering picture.
I get feeling Jeanne not trending NNE but maybe instead NNW. Maybe She wants to go play with . Hey if remnants can move around bottom of big High, could Jeanne possibly do the same? Just a thought.
Hurric
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
Wow, so does Tally....just looked.
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A STRONG VORT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF CURRENTLY EAST OF FLORIDA GETTING TRAPPED
UNDER THE RIDGE AND CROSSING THE PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EMERGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY MORNING. THE AND ETA BOTH
CLOSE OFF A WEAK LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND SHOW THE FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD SKIRTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND MONDAY AND OVER THE
REMAINING FLORIDA ZONES ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT POPS
SOUTHEAST BIG BEND ON MONDAY AND EXTEND WESTWARD ON TUESDAY. WHAT IS
LEFT OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER
THE ENSUING STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR POPS OVER
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FLORIDA ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
I think Joe B hacked into the /NWS website and posted that  . Joe called it a 1 in 1,000 shot in his update. I gotta ask him for his powerball (our multi-state lottery) numbers...
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
with all due respect to the little men in the flying machines ... are we working with the same center? if there is a center that is moving nne it has no convection and the center visible on all 3 sats has moved west of due north not east
sorry that its not in agreement with the last forecast but... not that hard to see
just as was easy enough to see earlier w/o recon info that she strengthened
thanks phil will look at model suite and hi resolution part
agree bastardi is worth giving up a coke a day to watch during peak of the season
if that is a front sweeping thru central florida causing rain which melboune NWS has talked about, and believe JAX too then why is it moving like a backdoor cold front
lot of good questions here for possible solutions to temporary questions
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
Just wondering, the light convection off the coast of Fl east of Daytona Beach, with absolutely no organization whatever, is that the remnants of ??? Heck, I thought it was more north perhaps off the coast of Ga or something... the radar loop shows the rain band heading towards the sw to the Orlando area....
I think the Bear Watch in Texas is making more sense to me than all of this.... wonder when Texas will post a Bear Warning... now that could be serious...
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Phil:
Most of the local weather channels have been calling for this from last night, nothing new here, also had the forecast for the same conditions for St. Pete from yesterday.
Dave
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Bear Watch: bear conditions could be possible within the warning area within 36 hours
Bear Warning: bear conditions can be expected within the warning area within 24 hours
Bare Naked Ladies: lame "rock" group
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
Well I can tell you this LIPhil.... we get a Bear Warning in MS and the plywood is going back up... don't want no hungry arse bears breaking though my windows eating my bassets... they'd look like some king size vienna sausages to a hungry bear....
I'm still trying to figure out what they meant by that... Bear Watch.... strange
I guess since Tx has not had any tropical weather to speak of this year... they are going to shift their emphasis to bears... and I didn't even think they had bears in Texas....
Shawn???
|
Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
|
|
The lotto numbers were are ready called for today at least!
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Post deleted by LI Phil
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
oh i see, im sorry
we were looking in different areas, no wonder you couldnt see the ghost of
i was going by NWS and wv...where moisture trail has been zooming sw for the last day.
not a believer in organized regeneration.. just think thats too wierd but can watch a vapor trail and see its evidence on radar
now i understand
lost on the bear thing but its ok... somethings i dont need to know
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
only you could find that LIPhil, must still be on that Yankee win high .... Dallas Bears.... too funny....
the pres of the Dallas Bears looks as big as a bear
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
A friend was here and was so blown away by what Norcross said they wrote bits and pieces down. Told me if others hadnt seen it they'd have thought they were dreaming as he rarely outright goes against . But being a Miamian when Norcross says something I give it more weight than something online or by a forecaster I dont know as well.
Said pointing to the track of "whole bunch of supposition"
He said the whole tropical picture was going to get "complicated and strange"
Called Jeanne tenacious and worth watching.
pointed to the track for the next five days and said "for some reason they seem to believe their forecast makes sense"
then he went into this long drawn out explanation of how 's remants would end up off the coast of florida and would move sw across the state and depending on if 's remnants do something more than rain.. it could steal jeanne's chance or jeanne could negate or they could both go west but I dont have the exact quotes here because my friend stopped writing and stared with their mouth wide open in shock
as much as i trust many here, as much as i trust ... when norcross questions they on air... there has to be a very good reason, its not like him
now 2 days later i can see why he said what he did
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
this is the Houston AFD posted this afternoon... look at the last line....
DISCUSSION...
DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN. WE SHOULD SEE A CLEAR EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS RUNNING AT TO MAY BE A JUST TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ALL QUIET WXWISE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. THEREAFTER PROGS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/POPS FROM THE EAST (VIA THE REMNANTS OF ) A-ROUND THE BASE OF THE STRONG RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VLY.
GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATING THAT WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRENGTHENING OF THIS RATHER PERSISTENT STORM. WILL GO WITH 30% POPS STARTING WED ON
THROUGH SAT. BEAR WATCH WILL LIKELY BE POSTED.
no kidding, this is what was written... posted by Shawn from Tx himself....
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
Anyone else notice how Karl is still moving West?
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
