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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan [Re: Bloodstar]
      #29121 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:22 PM

I sure hope not considering I just learned what one was from this board. I sure picked a bad time to learn about hurricanes. Watching Jeanne start a new eye after the other one seperated off is freaking me out! I thought it was done for and then she has a baby?

Whats up with that?!



Edited by Kent (Sat Sep 18 2004 06:24 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Is JB on TV tonight? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29122 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:23 PM

Whoa, then what was I watching. I most be going crazy or maybe they where repeating it? BACK TO JEANNE!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Back After A DEEP and NEEDED Sleep [Re: Rasvar]
      #29123 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:25 PM

Yes, though I did say -can- go wrong. Jacksonville is huge, in terms of both geography and population of course. With its own power plants, it's a completely different scenario for JEA. LWU on the other hand has to buy their juice from FPL just like everybody else (at discount of course), then mark it up to cover their own lower-volume maintenance and infrastructure.

Larger cities, which can afford their own plants and operate at high volume, are in a much better situation to handle their own utilities than small cities and towns like Lake Worth or Kissimmee.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan [Re: Bloodstar]
      #29125 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:28 PM

I don't know if there will be enough left of Ivan for that, but the GFS still insists on keeping a little piece separate from Jeanne, which looks like a drunken sailor trying to walk on his ship.
Earlier, when I saw a sat pic of Jeanne, it did look like it had some cold-core characteristics, then it spit out its center. I was suprised by the 5 pm discussion, but obviously, they know what they saw.
If it sits and spins out there as long as they think, it might be hard-pressed to get real strong as it churns up cooler water beneath it. Forecasting that type of track should be done with a larger eraser though.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan [Re: MrSpock]
      #29126 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:36 PM

A light small spinner would not stir up the water very much would it? I mean wouldn't it take at least a CAT 1 to make the water turn up 200 ft or more from under the surface?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
loops [Re: MrSpock]
      #29127 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:37 PM

Could this be the loop that the models were seeing? Remember I am a total novice.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Helen


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan [Re: MrSpock]
      #29128 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:38 PM

I noticed that too, it's center wasn't located in the area of deep convection, and it looked as though it had a lower cloud deck, made out of more stratus clouds. Also it had a comma shape to it too. Well right now it looks like it's back to a tropical system, and I think Karl could have some affect of Jeanne too, depending on when it recurves. Clark could explain the transtion to extra-tropical and the characteristics much better as he is studying it.

Clark could explain it better because he is meterologist, not a student in high school!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 18 2004 06:42 PM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #29129 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:40 PM

Good point, that is true, but if it did strengthen and sit still, it would end up being self-destructive intesification probably.
If it wants to spin in the same spot as a 55 kt Trop. Storm, I don't think any of us would mind.

Also, I don't know the state of temps out there (I haven't looked) to see if it is stirred up from prior storms or not.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Ivan bloody Ivan [Re: MrSpock]
      #29130 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:41 PM

Frances prob stirred up some water in that area, maybe that's limting the potential for cyclongenesis.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for & My Story.... after sleep [Re: LI Phil]
      #29131 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:48 PM

I made a post sometime ago but have been asked about the tornado incident in PCB/PC..... I was on the computer on this site...NWS, my level III radar running(feeling quite like a little weatherman at this point) and Ch 7 WJHG on behind me. JK and crew were on at the top & bottom of the hour w/ updates on Ivan. I had a few hooks as it appeared on my radar so I was ready to send a severe wx report to Tally, I figured a severe T'storm shortly.... well about then JK is alarmed by his VIPIR radar and has Greg M. pan around w/ the tower cam.... I think everyone knows the rest.... I did manage to click off my report to Tally of a tornado... ran to the living room where my wife was watching JK... I got her into the safe room (yes, I really had one ready) grabbed my camera, and yes, stepped outside. I have seen a few tornados from a good distance but I have never seen anything like this. It was huge and I am sure it passed right over or near us but had lifted back up. There was a fair amount of debris floating in the air but I kept dropping the damn camera. I got one pic but it is not very good and at this point I decided to get inside. I wanted to share this with you all but I had lost internet during the event.... sort of spooky...the last radar loop I had was 4:05pm CDT. So anyway we spent the rest of the night w/ my good buddy JK and crew as he/they went on to do a truly fantastic job and I know he saved some lives that night. About it that I can think of.

Coop...BTW no NOAA radio after that, tornado got it. WJHG was the Wx radio....still is.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Jenny Morates
Unregistered




Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: HanKFranK]
      #29132 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:52 PM

i am seared and why are this hurricanes are comeing?


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for & My Story.... after sleep [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #29133 - Sat Sep 18 2004 06:53 PM

THAT had to be scary. The closest I came was when on vacation, and strangely, the storm moved ssw along the Jersey coast due to an upper low out there (June, 1994).
I saw the funnel, reported it, but it never touched down. It was about 1 block north of me, but elevated of course. When it moved over the colder ocean, it dissipated.
Then, we got one heck of storm. It was odd, because the storm moved backwards, we saw the funnel first, not last.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: HanKFranK]
      #29134 - Sat Sep 18 2004 07:03 PM

Lets try to refocus a little. Two current themes need to be dropped. The Accuweather discussion has centered on personalities rather than the storms that are out there. What may seem irresponsible to some could be critical planning information to others. If the forecast seems bad to you, talk about the forecast, but not the individual who made it. I too brief Emergency Management personnel and my outlook on Jeanne has gone down the tubes (more than once). They know that, but they still ask me to keep trying.

Comments on power companies are a real stretch for the Main Page. If you have some usefull information regarding electric service that would be of benefit to others, put it in the Disaster Forum where it more appropriately belongs.

Mike and John are not available and I'm still hauling debris and briefing management on Jeanne - both difficult tasks. LI Phil and HanKFranK have done a great job in the interim and Storm Cooper is getting his baptism under fire - my thanks to all of them.

On Jeanne: Under westerly shear, the low level circulation center moved westward away from the primary convection this morning and this center, still quite strong, is now in the process of completing a cyclonic loop. It is also beginning to capture convection again - and that could create an interesting dilemma since NHC has identified a new center further to the east and north of the primary swirl. The 'new' center has probably been there all along - originally embedded in the main feeder band southeast of Puerto Rico. In other words Jeanne has always been a binary system - something that 'meteorology' is not yet willing to accept, but they do happen - and quite often. New concepts in any science sometimes take a long time to gain acceptance - and Meteorology is certainly one of the newer sciences, so we still have a lot to learn. Where will Jeanne go and how strong will she get? Nobody really knows for sure (myself included). Upper air patterns would suggest a slow movement to the north followed by an anticyclonic block and a turn to the west. How far north and how soon the turn is anybodys best guess - yours included. Recon has identified the new center at 22.2N 72.1W, 1002mb, 42kts at flight level. Original center is at 23.8N 73.9W at 21Z. 1004mb.

Karl is well on his way to becoming the fifth major hurricane of the season. The system behind Karl should become TD 13 later tonight.

For the moment, comments regarding the well-being of the CFHC family along the northern Gulf are fine - because we are one. Jason Kelley and his family are okay and he did not suffer any damage to his home - and probably considers himself lucky.
Cheers,
ED


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for & My Story.... after sleep [Re: MrSpock]
      #29135 - Sat Sep 18 2004 07:05 PM

While were on this Tornado stories, I have been 30 feet away from one. One touched down in my high school football field while I was playing baseball with a few friends. I studpidly almost went right into it but then one of my friends pulled me away. It was weird it wasn't raining and there was only a couple lighting bolts, one of the bolts just happened when the tornado touched down right next to it. All I can remember is my ears popping when I got close to it and then it disapated. It was very amazing but this thing was a weak F1 not anything like what you guys experinced.

P.S Storm Stories tonight has a good episode about a tornado, and real live footage.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Sat Sep 18 2004 07:11 PM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: CFHC Family...who's unaccounted for & My Story.... after sleep [Re: MrSpock]
      #29136 - Sat Sep 18 2004 07:05 PM

No problem Spock. I'll usually used a dashed line or address whoever I'm talking to in a specific portion of a post. You're right, it's a little tougher in text.
----------------------------------
Looks like some of Ivan's remains are showing up on that WV loop moving southward and getting into the upper right corner of that loop.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #29137 - Sat Sep 18 2004 07:13 PM

Thanks Ed, that was an excellent analysis of Jeanne. The binary tropical system theory seems very interesting. Do you know of any literature, or any internet sources, that elaborate on the subject?


- Here's a closeup of the smaller circulation and the area just to the east. It does appear to be completing some sort of rotation or circular-type movement.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

Edited by ShaggyDude (Sat Sep 18 2004 07:16 PM)


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #29138 - Sat Sep 18 2004 07:39 PM

Does that mean Jeanne is a twin? Could the two systems break apart and become two storms? Or is that why she can't gain strength because there has been this other force taking away from her main eye?


Did the mountains in the DR have anything to do with it?
Kinda like what happens with twins in reproduction? ie when one cell splits, half of its DNA stays and half goes to the new cell but they turn out to be identical later?

It seems possible to me that storms could have mutating eye's like cells can have mutating genes.

OK stop laughing....

I'm serious!


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Kent]
      #29139 - Sat Sep 18 2004 07:49 PM

Here is a complicated discussion on it
ams.confex.com/ams/last2000/24Hurricanes/abstracts/12783.htm
I couldn't really find anything else. All that came up was about binary interaction.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #29140 - Sat Sep 18 2004 07:54 PM

Can you repost that link...the one you provided isn't a link...I copied & pasted adding "www" to the beginning and that didn't work either. Thanks!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne [Re: Keith234]
      #29141 - Sat Sep 18 2004 07:55 PM

Thanks, Keith.
Phil, I just put it in my address bar, and all you need to add is the 'http://' to make it work. Likewise, i've found the search quite bleak as of yet.

Thanks shaggy dude! Scoobie out!

Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 18 2004 07:57 PM)


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