Fletch
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
94L
Where would you even estimate the "center" to be...
I think the center is still exposed south of the convection. It's difficult to tell, but I think its still WNW or maybe a tad NW. I would guess 290-295. I think the shear may give the hint of the North movement. I could be wrong.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Reading through the comments, I'm really hoping that Jeanne doesn't make tracks for Central florida. I've said all along I didn't believe it would.
The comments on insurance are probably best for another forum but it's all part of the aftermath of a storm when peoples lives are affected and their stress levels go through the roof. My thoughts are the insurance is a necessity and that you should have money in the bank to cover your deductable. That isn't always possible. Remember you have rights and sometimes have to fight the insurance companies to force them to do the right thing.
Well, if Jeanne does come, at least the plywood is close at hand.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Just looked at the recent buoy data in the Gulf. Max winds in the area are around 21-25kt. Pressures remain fairly high. Wind directions suggest the circulation is close to being closed.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> The comments on insurance are probably best for another forum but it's all part of the aftermath of a storm when peoples lives are affected and their stress levels go through the roof.
There are a lot of comments better suited to another forum (including many by yours truly), but I've decided to let everything go...I can't imagine what it's like down in Florida as well as the other areas devastated by the 2004 season storms...as long as you don't engage in a personal attack or curse, feel free to post away on whatever suits you (but at least try to make it related to the hurricane season). Stress levels must be at an all time high, and I'm sure many are already suffering post traumatic stress syndrome...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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(GOM SST / Buoy wind readings)
Really no indication of closed rotation there, but that's far from the best way to gauge. It's not nearly as visibly rotational as it was looking this morning, but if you look at the 248nm New Orleans NEXRAD, you can almost see some circulation in the cloudmass that's approaching (moving NW I might add) the Louisiana coast.
Really not sure what to make of Jr here. Bear watches all around.
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[witty phrase here]
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Grasshopper
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Tarpon Springs, FL
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You guys have a great site here. Thanks.
I have found your site invaluable through the last few storms. Keep up the good work!
Matt
Edited by Grasshopper (Wed Sep 22 2004 07:10 PM)
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Redbird1
Unregistered
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LI Phil............Mike sent me my password and that won't work either.......now I don't know what to do now.
Looks like it's fixed now.
Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 22 2004 07:34 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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at 26.55 N and 88.9 W.... quite evident to me on the vis loop, exposed broad center has no convection, which is all north and east of the center, and getting the crap sheared out of it, southern half of the system remains convection free... not a well developed storm at the moment.. it appears to be moving slowly off to the NW....
use this link, click animination, and zoom high....
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Loc: Osceola County
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Wow, sure enough there it is.
Nice link, thanks.
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[witty phrase here]
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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So pretty much what I said earlier... will not be classified any time soon.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Long range radar out of NO also shows the present movement of 94L to the NW or perhaps NNW..... could be a temporary relocation of center, I doubt it, per the radar loop a part of this system is now moving to the NW or even NNW currently...
maybe it will split again, part to the NW and another part to the west... its like is giving birth to triplets.... hehe...
then another will form, and will have remnants all over the frigging place.... its like a dang bad Steven King novel...
get a grip FP... system looks like a only rainmaker for southern La at the moment....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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94L does not make a very impressive picture at the moment relative to developing... then again that's OK too.... I'm still getting flashbacks of Camille every time I look at pictures of the florida panhandle...
BTW, Latest run of the NOGAP takes Jeanne to central florida...like they need it....
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...prp&tau=084
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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I am really concerned about Jeanne. Should I be? Could it just be cane jitters????
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC
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Someone posted a link to the wv loop that you could have the forecast track on it. Does anyone have that link? Thanks. Unfortunately we have a big bullseye on top of us right now, hoping the Cape Fear River doesn't open her mouth and invite Jeanne to come on in.  
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My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
I am really concerned about Jeanne. Should I be? Could it just be cane jitters????
Those kind of jitters are reserved for Gators and Seminoles.
With the ridge building the way it is, I am also concerned about Jeanne.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Conditions at 42041 as of
(1:50 pm CDT)
1850 GMT on 09/22/2004: Unit of Measure: EnglishMetric Time Zone: Station Local TimeGreenwich Mean Time [GMT]British Summer Time [GMT+1]Eastern Greenland [GMT-1]Azores [GMT-2]Western Greenland [GMT-3]Atlantic Standard [GMT-4]US/Eastern StandardUS/Central StandardUS/Mountain StandardUS/Pacific StandardAlaska Standard [GMT-9]Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10]Samoa Standard [GMT-11]International Date Line West [GMT-12]Western European [GMT+0]Central European [GMT+1]Eastern European [GMT+2]Moscow [GMT+3]USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4]USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5]USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6]USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7]China Coast [GMT+8]Japan Standard [GMT+9]Guam Standard [GMT+10]GMT+11International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
pressure tendency(ptdy):- 0.09 in (falling rapidly)
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.2 °F
This kind of paints a different picture!
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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This is off of the Lake Charles AFD...
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
.SYNOPSIS...
A dome of HIGH pressure will be found over the Ohio Valley ridging
southwest across Louisiana. An inverted trough (or wave-in-the-
easterlies) continues to propagate west along the southern periphery
of the HIGH. The inverted trough will enter the coastal waters
tonight; and exit the coastal waters Friday evening.
Note, at press the National Hurricane Center is contemplating naming
this inverted trough; contingent upon the findings of the aircraft.
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Doesn't sound like they think 94L should be classified as a tropical cyclone...
Thoughts, anyone?
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Allison
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Not those kind of canes, those are my boys!!!!! lol 
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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sure you should be concerned, mostly because of all the grief that the poor state of Florida has gone thought this year, but models are models, they change every run... monitor the situation and then if you get threatened again, take the necessary actions that you need to take to save your possessions, but most importantly, your life… there probably is just as great a probability that you will not get affected as you will get affected, at the moment… if you stay tuned to this web site, at least it will never just sneak up on ya… that’s for sure
Bottom line always listen to what your local emergency agencies are telling you to do...
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Someone posted a link to the wv loop that you could have the forecast track on it. Does anyone have that link?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
I think it only works with the floaters...after you select your storm, check the box in the upper right hand part of the screen which says "Forecast Points." This will overlay the predicted course with the storm.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
in the above example, I clicked floater 1 WV loop.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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