Jeanne Watch - FLHurricane.com

Phil, I'm not directing this AT you, just TO you. I told my boss early last week that I felt this would happen. I am not at all sure that the westward movement forecast to begin within the next 12-24 hours will, in fact, after 72 or so hours begin a turn to the NW...at least not in time to avoid Florida. Models are now tending much more westard and a few suggest a Fla landfall. This far into the future, models are not a very good guide nor are forecasts for that matter. I think that Scottvb in his forecast recently posted, seems to agree with this 'feeling' I've expressed, so with regard to the forecast that it will turn NW 'in time' to avoid another Florida landfall:

I'm not betting on it. Overall confidence in forecasts beyond 2 days is very low this year and in some cases, confidence in forecasts beyond 6 hours is suspect. In the case of , while forecasts 3 days into the future said landfall near Punta Gorda, by 36 hours, it had shifted to W of Tampa, then by about 24 hrs said Tampa area or slightly north. By noon on the landfall date, it was still pointing at Tampa. By 6 hours, it was obvious to all but the official forecasters that it was 50-60 miles off or more and within a few hours had already hit an hour or so south of the forecast.

Please don't tell me to expect it to turn in time to avoid Florida, hope, yes, expect, definitely not. I'm darned tired of packing, moving my valuables, thankfully being able to return, only to have to do it again and yet again and possibly yet a 4th time. I was lucky that my mobile home suffered little damage unlike 10 of my neighbors that lost it all with . It was dented and bruised by their roofs and awnings and other debris, but it survived. Yes, I did move my stuff out of my mobile home 3 times so far and twice was hit either directly (Charley) or in the NE quadrant of another (Frances). was a 'certain hit' for Florida and as a CAT-IV at the time, no matter where it hit in Florida (other than the panhandle) meant packing my valuables once again. You don't want to wait till it starts raining.

Well this time, I never unpacked but moving a trunk load at a time is exhausting for an old man like me. I had my 62nd birthday Sept 4 when arrived in the area.

IF this sounds like berating the forecasters, I assure you it is NOT. The state of the forecasting 'art' is just such that this season has dictated not only 3 (4 maybe) good reasons for me to evacuate my mobile home and the forecast accuracy has been such that I would have been a fool not to as the Orlando area at some point was directly affected by 2 storms or was forecast to be affected directly by another (Ivan) and possibly yet another. I am fortunate that 's initial forecasts showing paths through or near Orlando proved inaccurate, but I hate the fact that it spared me at the expense of my friends north and west of here.

We'll see what happens, but for the moment, stuff stays packed and hopefully time remains to move it to safer quarters will remain when the path of this storm *finally* is identified accurately enough to make the evacuation decision timely.

Someone asked me why don't I evacuate and leave my stuff so it can be replaced by insurance. Have you ever tried to get hurricane insurance on a mobile home? I could replace most of my stuff for the price of the premium... No thank you. I can't think of anything more of a scam than insurance. Its getting so bad that even if you can afford the premium, the deductables approximate the average loss for all but those suffering full destruction of their home. My boss, who gave me refuge during my evacuations, had a tree fall on his house. The tree belonged to a neighbor so his insurance wouldn't pay for removal, The neighbors insurance wouldn't pay because it fell onto her neighbors property, not her own. The damage to his house didn't exceed the new deductables for hurricane damage. So, the policy was worth zero, nada. Of course, had the whole house been demolished, *then* he would have gotten something, but not a new house...with co-insurance and deductables, maybe 75% coverage remained. Yeah, it's a racket. Yeah, I'm bitter and I wasn't even the one to suffer the loss. My loss was only days lost from work, the gas used to transport my stuff and enough anxioty to shorten my few remaining years of life by God onlyl knows how much! Doctors say stress kills....If it does, I'm on borrowed time.

Maybe Jeanne will do it? Take my remaining time, I mean....Just venting, but I think a lot of my fellow Floridians feel much the same way...both about getting hit again and about wishing it on our neighbors to the north.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

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