Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
|
|
Quote:
>>> Maybe if you all start sucking in reeeaaalllyy hard up there in Long Island you could stop Jeanne from going any further south.
We up here ON Long Island have been sucking for a really long time!
From those of us who hate the Islanders, Rangers, Yankees and Jets: WE KNOW
Sorry couldn't let that one go. Used to live in N Jersey
--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher
|
AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
|
|
As of 5pm Jeanne was located at 26.1N/69.0W A good move to the SW from the 11AM position. Now it depends on what the ridge to the northwest of her does. Most of the models have shifted westward due to them forecasting the ridge to move slower than had been anticipated. However, like we have seen all season many times the models have had trouble forecasting the strength and movement of the troughs and ridges. Once again it's a wait and see type of approach.
--------------------
Check the Surf
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
What about the Knicks?
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
|
|
Quote:
Is 94L the "son of in the gulf?"
All of these storms are getting me dizzy....
Yup... in case you're looking for it, here is the website where you can find info on the various invests (94L, etc.):
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Mike beat me to it... 
Several months ago, someone (HankFrank?) posted a very good explanation about the invest numbers... if I find it, I'll send it your way...
--------------------
Allison
Edited by Allison (Wed Sep 22 2004 04:59 PM)
|
Kent
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
|
|
Well suck harder darn it!!! She's back to 26.1....smack dab even with me and pretty darn close to WXMANRITCHIE.....!
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Recon is consistantly reporting flight level winds at or above 33kts. Last 2 reports were 39kts and 33 kts respectively.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
>>> Well suck harder darn it!!!
BTW, I responded to your PM...
This one is definitely going in a future "GEMS" comedy bit!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
This is a little misleading regarding staying offshore throughout the period. While that may be true, it looks like a NC landfall not long after 120 hrs.
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
|
|
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...
RUNNING LATE SO WILL BE BRIEF. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
REMNANTS OF . A RECON IS ENROUTE BUT DELAYED AND SHOULD BE
WITHIN THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
BEEN SHOWING A FLAREUP OF CONVECTION PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE GRADIENT FLOW AND A DEFINITE MID-LEVEL
SWIRL AROUND 26.6N 88.9W WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTH AND WEST SIDE. HURRICANE CENTER HAS ADVISED THAT IF SITUATION
PROMPTS AN UPGRADE OR DESIGNATION...IT WOULD BE NAMED !
|
Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
|
|
do you really think that she is going to make that sharp turn after day 3 or so to the NW-NNW?
--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Wed Sep 22 2004 05:01 PM)
|
Kent
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
|
|
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT.
Why does that sound so familiar? Uuuummm lets see? I just know I have read that before...maybe along about Aug 31 ya think!? 
|
Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
|
|
By contrast, here's what Houston/Galveston has to say....
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...
WE SHALL RAISE THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS
PASS TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. THIS WILL OUT AT 4 PM CDT. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL. WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR SCA CRITERIA AS PER BUOYS 019 AND
035. WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS...GALVESTON BAY...
WITH CAUTION FOR MATAGORDA BAY. DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF
CWFA. MAIN LIFT SHOULD BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS TROUGH LINE MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER LATER ON
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH BUT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN AS MOISTURE
POOLING CONTINUE OVER SW ZONES AND SOUTHWARD TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EXTENDED
PORTION OF CWFHGX AND ZFPHGX.
---
They refer to it only as a "disturbance"...
For yet another take on the situation, the AFD from Corpus Christi has a pretty good discussion posted. It's a little long, so I'll just post the link:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP&version=0
--------------------
Allison
|
rd522525
Unregistered
|
|
Is there going to be a 5"00 advisory? as of yet its a 4:00.
|
Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
Yeah gawd ouch I can almost hear the wind now!
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
My post at 3:11 as to the center of 94L
"center at 26.55 N and 88.9 W.... quite evident to me on the vis loop, exposed broad center has no convection, which is all north and east of the center"
New Orleans 3:30 AFD at 3:30
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN SHOWING A FLAREUP OF CONVECTION PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE....
DEFINITE MID-LEVEL SWIRL AROUND 26.6N 88.9W WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE.
It probably moved .5 degrees during the time difference... hehe
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Frank, you're on a roll these days...tell us more about Jeanne.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
|
|
All of these NWS offices are waiting on the to do their thing thats why some of the AFD's are so late. The is waiting on recon which was late getting out so expect some special discusions later. Recon was just about to the center a short time ago so it's just a matter of time and I would be very surprised if it is not upgraded to a least a depression. So far FL winds have been between 30 and 40 knots and I'm sure there are some higher gusts in the heavier convection north of the center so upgrade to TS is not out of the question., you know how antsy the gets with a system that is close to land.
|
teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
|
|
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH HAS BEEN
DETERMINED BY THE National Hurricane Center TO BE THE REMNANT OF
IVAN...MAY BE REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH
GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST. IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE... CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE SYSTEM...DETERMINES THAT A CYCLONE HAS REFORMED...ADVISORIES ON
IVAN WILL BE REINITIATED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND
OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.
|
SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
|
|
but they still haven't found a closed circulation. It will not be classified until they do and I don't think that will happen tonight.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
I got my hat on Phil.... get to Jean tonight... want a hint... look at the Canadian runs...
Per the at 5:00 Yo Shawn
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH HAS BEEN
DETERMINED BY THE National Hurricane Center TO BE THE REMNANT OF
IVAN...MAY BE REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH
GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST. IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE... CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE SYSTEM...DETERMINES THAT A CYCLONE HAS REFORMED...ADVISORIES ON
IVAN WILL BE REINITIATED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND
OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
