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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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truth
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Re: Nhc is missing up tonight big time(A big rant) [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30043 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:08 AM

matt go to bed and take your xanax or zoloft dude

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Matt033
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Re: Nhc is missing up tonight big time(A big rant) [Re: truth]
      #30044 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:11 AM

I don't take that trash!

First of all how in the world can 93L which was 3 times the size of Lisa. Which was distorying Lisa. Be lisa? I'm kind of sick of people bashing me in trolling me just to make fun. I think it is utter bull crap! Then we got Ivan(It think I spelled it out fairly well?)



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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: Nhc is missing up tonight big time(A big rant) [Re: truth]
      #30045 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:17 AM

I enjoy your arguement, and I certainly agree with your comments about Lisa/93L. As for Ivan, I know that local mets have been talking about "the remnants of Ivan" circling back down to Florida for several days now. Maybe the NHC didn't want to muddy the waters for the less hurricane-savvy members of the viewing public.

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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Ricreig
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Nhc is missing up tonight big time(A big rant) [Re: truth]
      #30046 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:18 AM

Quote:



End of Rant!

(Is this all right to have here)


Matt,

Your burr under the saddle is showing. Personally, I don't quite understand the reason to be so upset so as to cause your language to degenerate almost to street level. Your opinion is most certainly welcome and you have a right to it, but the members of this forum have nothing to do with the how and why the NHC named the GOM version of Ivan as it did. The NHC is made up of people, like yourself and they, being human, can and do make mistakes and can be inconsistant. Unless their action or inaction directly impacts your life, fortune or well being, I fail to see why it is necessary to be so agitated. Passionate about your convicitions is one thing, ranting and shouting in anger is entirely another.

By the way, if you'd register, members of this formum might be able to PM you and explain their viewpoints, support or not and why. Your statistics in the first part of your message were most enlightening and a good summary of Ivan....until the attacks on the NHC that is. I personally think that attacks on members of this forum, or any entity such as the NHC, are simply inappropriate. We all get AFU at times, but we shouldn't berate others when they do it, so it seems to me.

Please join us, register and keep the level of discussion a bit higher than the dust of the streets as much as possible. OK?

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Nhc is missing up tonight big time(A big rant) [Re: truth]
      #30047 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:18 AM

Good points. As far as it being here I would say probably okay. It's up to Ed and the moderators.
Apparently NHC/TPC has been having some in house bashing going on over Ivan II. They even mentioned "animated discussion" in one of the latest Ivan II discussion's. I'm sure they have conferenced with the WMO. World Meteorological Organization, and are playing by the rules.
Hurricane Mitch-'98, did somewhat of a loop over the Yucatan, and came right back across FL as a Tropical Storm.
Under the circumstances-many, many storms this year. I would cut NHC some slack. They usually have more time between storms, and don't have near as many storms beating on their door. They make go back and regroup, eat crow, or have a party after the season is over.
As long as they give us enough warning to Get Out..
We've all learned that the 'canes are unpredictable. There is better forecasting than there was in 1969. But pinning down the precise point or within 65 miles is almost impossible. As we saw with Ivan I. He was dead set on Mobile, and made a right hook at the last hour.
Plan out your routes. More than one route. Know where you are going to stay/stop. Keep your papers and valuables ready to go. Good luck, and here's hoping and praying that no one needs it.


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Basic questions [Re: danielw]
      #30048 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:25 AM

Can someone tell me what TUTT and SSTS stand for? I keep seeing these and just can't figure out the acronyms.

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Not again... [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30049 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:27 AM

Quote:

These "wait and see" scenarios are starting to really stress me out.!




Yup, but as mere humans, what can we do about it? Nada! So, do the best you can to redirect your reaction to the situation into constructive activities and thoughts. Hard to do, easy to say, but it is the only thing a human can do to make it better. I am stressed as much as anyone, and I admit it, but I try to counter that stress by participating in this forum, learning as much as I can about the forces at work, and maybe most importantly, preparing and executing a plan of action that will give me the best opportunity not only to survive, but to minimize my own property loss. Beyond that, I try and see the humor in the situation, you know, comic relief. It really does help me and I would suspect others such as yourself. I worry about the things I can do something about and do my darndness to avoid worrying about the things I cannot affect.

Try to convert your stress and frustration into something positive. *Finding* that positive substitute is both challanging and believe it or not, reduces the stress by diverting your attention to positive actions and thoughts.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Basic questions [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30050 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:28 AM

TUTT-Tropical upper tropospheric trough-i think that's right
SSTs- Sea Surface temperatures


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Nhc is missing up tonight big time(A big rant) [Re: truth]
      #30051 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:38 AM

I must respectfully disagree.

The storm that is now Ivan can be traced back to the remnants of Ivan. The energy from the storm split off into two pieces -- one that raced northeastward into the Atlantic, and another that dove south and westward, dragging down a lot of dry air with it. The surface circulation may not have remained with this piece of energy, but that is not one of the qualifications to reclassify a storm with the same name; after all, it happens all of the time with depressions and storms that weaken to waves and then regenerate, and happened just this year with TD 2/Bonnie. Regardless, the energy associated with Ivan rode around the ridge of high pressure, acquired tropical characteristics once again, and redeveloped into Ivan. It is similar to Mitch of 1998 -- another storm which, after making landfall, split into two distinct pieces of energy, one of which came through the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm (again named Mitch) and the other of which skirted the coast of Mexico on the Pacific side and never developed. They are not breaking their own climatology; they are, in fact, going with precedent.

The 11pm discussion clearly states what happened with Lisa and 93L and an analysis of the satellite imagery serves to back this up. The convection associated with Lisa died off, while the low-level center stalled, moved slightly east, and began to redevelop convection along the periphery of the old 93L. A QuikSCAT scatterometer pass earlier today showed two distinct centers, both of about the same size and magnitude, connected by a trough extending ESE out of Lisa. It has become apparent during the evening that Lisa's circulation won out, but that the convective energy associated with the other wave (93L) was drawn into the Lisa circulation after it's own convective energy was dissipated due to shearing effects. Plus, Lisa gradually grew in scope throughout the day and was not the 3 times smaller that you claim than 93L. The two systems merely interacted and the circulation from Lisa won out -- that's why it's still Lisa and not Matthew or Nicole or anything else.

NHC is doing a fine job, IMO, and especially considering they only had one lead forecaster to handle operations this evening.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: Not again... [Re: Ricreig]
      #30052 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:38 AM

We've actually done a pretty good job of keeping our chin up and finding humor in all this. Especially while not not having power for 10 days! Me, my mom, my dad, two cats and a dog. Lots of QT with the family! Plus, I know all of my neighbors and how they like their campstove coffee. And Jeanne has been a huge joke around here the last week. Heck, I've been preparing for my first day back at school for 2 weeks! That oughtta be some class! But tonight when I saw the 11pm update and logged on to read the board here, I laughed at a lot of the comments while my eyes teared up. Just a little PTSD rearing its ugly head.

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Basic questions [Re: danielw]
      #30053 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:46 AM

Quote:

TUTT-Tropical upper tropospheric trough-i think that's right
SSTs- Sea Surface temperatures


I think you are right, but how does it affect our stormy weather? I think that is the unasked question. I'm not all that sure myself, but I'll try and see how close I can get:

SSTs This is the temperature of the ocean water. As troppical storms are heat driven, it seems that the more heat in the ocean (Water Temps) the more 'fuel' available for the storm. Somewhere about 80 degrees F seems to be the 'magic' number for the right fuel/air ration to start the engine. Higher temps mean more fuel and potentially stronger storms.

TUTT: Lets see, T)ropical - having to do with the tropics as opposed to the mid latitudes where we in the US mostly live.
U)pper - having to do with the top or highest levels more than down an the bottom of the ocean of air we tend to live in.
T)ropospheric - having to do with the troposphere, the air where we live, where the weather is and residing just below the Stratosphere...the first few miles of the atmosphere above sea level and last but not least:
T)rough - a lower than normal pressure for the upper regions of our troposphere.

What does the TUTT have to do with storms? Frankly I'm not totally sure, but I do know that storms require high pressures at high altitudes or it can't breathe and if it can't breathe, the engine won't start or stay running. Like stuffing a bananna into the tailpipe of a car....tends to limit perfommenc or even kill the engine. So, I would suspect a strong TUTT might inhibit storm genesis or limit activity somewhat while in the tropics.

Now, will a real met or someone who *really* knows tell us the real reason why these are important.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: TS Ivan [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30054 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:52 AM

Based on satellite loop ending at 0315, and buoy reports.
At 0315Z-(1115pm EDT), the center"swirl" of Ivan was located at the SW corner of convection, and was exposed. The "swirl" is best seen using IR channel 2.
Buoy 42041 has reported a wind shift, between 0350-0450Z, Wind was 260deg at 6kts and is now 170deg at 21 gusting to 25kts. Wave height was reported as 16.4ft at 0450Z.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:53 AM)


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Ricreig
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Not again... [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30055 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:55 AM

Quote:

We've actually done a pretty good job of keeping our chin up and finding humor in all this. Especially while not not having power for 10 days! Me, my mom, my dad, two cats and a dog. Lots of QT with the family! Plus, I know all of my neighbors and how they like their campstove coffee. And Jeanne has been a huge joke around here the last week. Heck, I've been preparing for my first day back at school for 2 weeks! That oughtta be some class! But tonight when I saw the 11pm update and logged on to read the board here, I laughed at a lot of the comments while my eyes teared up. Just a little PTSD rearing its ugly head.


Sounds to me like you are already doing the right things. You are doing right by keeping a bad situation in perspective. I only went 8 days and 5 days respectively without power, but I know how much I miss the essential Air Conditioning. But, I couldn't do anything about it, so I soaked in a cool tub of water....Didn't help much but I convince myself that it did <grin>. In the FWIW department, I really don't think you will be affected too much by Jeanne, but to be sure, keep closely posted in case I'm wrong.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
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Re: Basic questions [Re: Ricreig]
      #30056 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:55 AM

Thanks Richard, you did a much better job explaining that. Ever thought about teaching?
I found this on HRD's website.
A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. For a more detailed discussion on TUTTs see the article by Fitzpatrick et al. (1995).
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:59 AM)


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: Basic questions [Re: Ricreig]
      #30057 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:58 AM

OK, that makes sense. But if a TUTT means lower than normal pressures aloft, then does it differ significantly from an upper level low (ULL)? Sorry, I took meteorology once a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away...

--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Basic questions [Re: danielw]
      #30058 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:00 AM

Quote:

Thanks Richard, you did a much better job explaining that. Ever thought about teaching?


You nut! You know that I *am* a teacher. From RADAR repair in the USAF (where I might have met you after Camille) to instructor pilot, to teaching at High-Tech Institute here in Orlando.....

Actually, I was guessing at the reasons why they are important to tropical weather, but I hope to be at least somewhere close. I really am interested in confirmation or re-education. One thinng I can be sure of, this board and it's' members are collectively more than able to clear things up. From Scottvb to Clark and the rest, we have a wealth of knowledge ready to be tapped.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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questionation
Unregistered




Re: Nhc is missing up tonight big time(A big rant) [Re: Clark]
      #30059 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:01 AM

One question, What happens is both pieces of energy redevelop into Ts's? Would we have Ivan#1, Ivan#2.

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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Not again... [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30060 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:03 AM

I feel your pain cjzydeco. I live in Fort Pierce and I don't look forward to another bad storm hitting here again. This is just nerve wracking to watch this scenario take shape. My heart just sank when I saw the models for Jeanne shift to Florida once again.

St. Lucie County has not issued any kind of evacuation as of yet, though I did hear the local news say it would be sometime Saturday night rather than Friday for landfall if there is such a thing. Kinda concerned because if all the schools got so seriously damaged, there isn't going to be a lot of shelters available since they are all SLC schools for the most part. Not sure why they don't use the fortress that is Fort Pierce Magnet School for the Arts. That building has probably been there for a long, long time and would seem to me to make a great shelter.

The biggest thing this time, since we know the house is stronger than we thought, is whether to stay or go to a shelter this time. Guess we'll have to see where she heads for. Oddly enough the damage we suffered to our car came from the shelter's roof that blew little pebbles into the back window and shattered it.

I know it sucks, but all we can do is hang tough and hope that whoever gets it is spared too much damage and lives.


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Ricreig
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Basic questions [Re: danielw]
      #30061 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:06 AM

Quote:

... TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere.


Well, I tried. Seems like I might have gotten it half right....not too bad for a guess, I guess

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
Re: Basic questions [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30062 - Thu Sep 23 2004 02:08 AM

Quote:

OK, that makes sense. But if a TUTT means lower than normal pressures aloft, then does it differ significantly from an upper level low (ULL)? Sorry, I took meteorology once a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away...


If I read the exerpt that Daniel found, it may have to do more with termperature than pressure. Read his reply to my post above and see if that makes any more sense.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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