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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: preparations [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #30143 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:09 AM

Quote:

In the latest sat, is she moving somewhat like wnw instead of w?


Hey guys and gals. As much as we'd all like to see Jeanne go somewhere, almost anywhere else but our own doorstep, Lets see what *trends* develop and not get too excited about every little wobble from frame to frame. A trend of several hours is real important, a 'trend' of a couple of frames of sat is pretty 'so what', if you get my drift? ... but don't give up hope, there *is* still time for good things to happen. We just don't want to get so absorbed in the trees that we forget the goal is to find the way out of the forrest.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Thu Sep 23 2004 10:10 AM)


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from Gainesville
Unregistered




eye split in two (briefly)? [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #30144 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:09 AM

in the latest IR frame, the eye appears to have a 'blue' line running down the middle, separating it into almost two equal halves. Otherwise, the storm looks healthy. I'm sure this is only a temporary state with the eye, but can anyone explain why it looks like that?

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: movement? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30145 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:12 AM

Quote:

After looking at the IR loop for the last 6 hours, it sure looks like the eye has obviously moved to the W, possibly to the WNW. Is this my imagination?


No, but it is really slow. Six hours is a slow trend to the West...actually, good news I think.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: preparations [Re: Ricreig]
      #30146 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:14 AM

I agree. We've seen wobbles from pretty much every storm this year, interesting to note, but nothing to make a big deal about. Not that there's anything wrong with that. (can I give bonus points?)

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
what dont people understand...from horses mouth [Re: Terra]
      #30147 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:15 AM

DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY
DRIFTING ERRATICALLY

means a lot of wobbles... as said worry about the whole forest not a tree or two

DRIFTING ERRATICALLY

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: movement? [Re: Ricreig]
      #30148 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:16 AM

Go to this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

click the handy dandy "Forecast Points" box

There will be another "BIG" forecast change either at
2:00pm or 5pm. My guess is 5pm.
I bet the change the landfall area to FL/GA area.


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: movement? [Re: cocoa Beach]
      #30149 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:19 AM

Quote:

Go to this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

click the handy dandy "Forecast Points" box

There will be another "BIG" forecast change either at
2:00pm or 5pm. My guess is 5pm.
I bet the change the landfall area to FL/GA area.





I would tend to agree with you. I think they will keep it the same at 11, then bump it right at 5.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
funny eye [Re: Fletch]
      #30150 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:21 AM

dry eye, dry air

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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anonymous
Unregistered




Re: movement? [Re: Fletch]
      #30151 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:22 AM

They are not going to shift the forecast to the right if the models are still showing an east or s. fla. landfall.

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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Ivan buoy reports.... [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #30152 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:22 AM


Check this out... this station is about 37 miles north of the center... looks like pressure may be going up in the area...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mrsl1

--------------------
Allison


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TROY
Unregistered




Re: movement? [Re: Fletch]
      #30153 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:24 AM

Didnt NHC mention that it would start to move west later this afternoon

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
around 75 [Re: TROY]
      #30154 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:24 AM

am i the only one who notices dry air filling in around 75?

and... same dry air is getting into jeanne

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: preparations [Re: Shalafi]
      #30155 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:25 AM

Quote:

t. (can I give bonus points?)


I don't know why not. We all share the responsibility of making this the best board around, and responsability should come authority to issue bonus points

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Re: funny eye [Re: LoisCane]
      #30156 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:26 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Yeah, Is it restructering?
or is it fizzling? The eye looks ragged for sure.


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: movement? [Re: cocoa Beach]
      #30158 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:26 AM

Interesting map, my dad liked this one during Frances

One thing I noticed is the huge dry rush coming down from the North, which to my unschooled eye is going to push this wobble back in line with the model / forecast consensus. And I agree, we'll know at five.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: preperations [Re: Ricreig]
      #30159 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:27 AM

How accurate can this be? Check this link out.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_500p_9panel.html

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: preparations [Re: Ricreig]
      #30160 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:27 AM

Woo hoo! And no one has taken me up on it? My points are worth Krispt Kremes..every point I give out I get to eat one..

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: movement? [Re: TROY]
      #30161 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:30 AM

I really doubt there is any adjustment at 11:00am, except to push back the times. While the longer it sits, the less the chance that she will make landfall on Florida, It may be a matter of having to wait for a true motion to begin before the situation will become clearer.

--------------------
Jim


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: movement? [Re: cocoa Beach]
      #30162 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:30 AM

Quote:

Go to this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

click the handy dandy "Forecast Points" box

There will be another "BIG" forecast change either at
2:00pm or 5pm. My guess is 5pm.
I bet the change the landfall area to FL/GA area.



Looks like at a minimum, their speed and timing is off. I hope this means an adjustment WAY EAST! Yes, I'm guilty of 'wishcasting', but away, not toward my location as is the case with 'true' wishcasting....

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: preperations [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #30163 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:35 AM

Quote:

How accurate can this be? Check this link out.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9panel/mrf_500p_9panel.html


To my untrained eyes, this is pretty much in line with the NHC forecast...they just make smaller dots

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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