Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/850_su_loop.shtml
I can't wait until the other model runs come in later tonight. Hmm.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'll give you BOTH bonus points!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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troy
Unregistered
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weird...yesterday on Fox 35 in Orlando during one of the morning weather updates a person from was on the phone with Jim Van Fleet and that person mentioned it woulnt be named if it reformed
I guess they did further research analysis and changed their mind...how cruel it would be if was headed right at tha Panhandle area again though
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troy
Unregistered
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Peace Train///Hurricane Train...coinicidence?
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Does this suggest that they think jeanne is coming to fl? pardon my lack of meteorology smarts, im still learning!
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Don't know yet....wait until the 11pm and 5am discussions...they should provide more light on this "trend" or the reasons for it. Also, wait until tonight's model runs to see if they agree with the shift.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html
More models...closer to Florida....and similar to . Ugh.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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on the news arcticle, look at the name of the correspondant!!
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Oh boy are we in for a ride....................to those that just got power back...............not a good deal at all.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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I wouldnt trust the models if I were any of you when it comes to Jeanne, because they at one point had the storm offshore of FL moving north towards GA, and had it at another point hitting Daytona Beach on a westward track after moving NNW
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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oh dear...
Well... IF the posted earlier was right then...would possibly put pressure on to turn back and follow the stronger Jeanne.. right?
Then again notice that Lisa/td whatever if its still there is no where to be seen on the ..
Hey its just a new run.. can change..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the first flick was scary enough that they decided to make a sequel.. don't worry though, sequels are rarely as impressive as the first go around.
as the title suggests, we have four named systems present and soon to be five. 93L has been evolving more slowly than i anticipated, but it is having it's way with lisa and i'm expecting it to win out. lisa may or may not dissipate.. i'd err on the side of may, based on the proximity/cyclonic envelope of the two systems. 93L has likely been a depression for 24-36hr now, but is still hesitant to officially recognize the system.. it's intertwined fate with lisa has yet to come clear.
so anyhow, karl is fishspinning like a champ, lisa is meandering due to weak ridging and doing the fujiwhara waltz, 93L is developing, is taking aim on the north texas coast, and... then there's jeanne.
modeling with jeanne keeps trending west, west, more west. the consensus is now almost evenly split on whether to move the storm ashore on the florida east coast.. and almost all modeling has it sideswiping far enough west to get the carolinas. centered around monday somebody in the southeast will probably take it in the teeth from jeanne. if it gets florida we're looking at 2/3, further north 1/2. there is a chance that it rakes the entire east coast next week.
last note on .. SSTs in the north gulf probably won't support a significant system, and shear should only relax enough for to baby-step back to tropical storm status.. but note the slow movement once it gets inland.. if you know anything about storms decelerating in the mid latitudes with a ridge building back to the north, you might reason that it could drift back into the gulf.. just a veiled threat, not a certainty.
another cape verde system has a shot at developing over the weekend/early next week.. but the door is about to swing shut for significant development east of 45w. with all the high amplitude features in the mid latitudes showing up in the globals over the coming week or two.. the potential for caribbean action may start to come into play. is tanking, so the potential should be taken seriously.
alas, the 2004 hurricane season.. the gift that keeps on giving.
HF 2345z22september
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wow...I shudder when I continue to read updated death-tolls from Jeanne's lashing of Haiti. Here is an excerpt from the latest Reuters article:
The death toll rose to 1,008 in the Artibonite region around the northern coastal city of Gonaives and 72 in Haiti's Northwest province, said Dr. Carl Murat Cantave, a government official.
Another 1,000 people were missing and the final death count was likely to hit 2,000, he said.
Here's the entirte article:
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml...storyID=6309716
With Jeanne now threatening to landfall in the SE USA, the chances increase for a name retirement (sad as it may sound that the death toll in Haiti isn't sometimes enough to retire a name)
--Lou
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> (sad as it may sound that the death toll in Haiti isn't sometimes enough to retire a name)
Sometimes it's not enough to even give a system a TD status! dropped the ball with that late may system which killed more than 3,000!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Execellent breakdown of the tropics as I always say HF. Lisa will be asborbed my the massive wave behind it I think and enter the carribbean then develop, why not CAT 3 nothing seems to be holding back these hurricanes? Jeanne's has become more ragged and a opening is starting to spin around the eye, maybe an . The eye was very clear this afternoon as the called it a measely CAT 1 but that's old news already. The pressure has risen up ~10 milibars from the morning.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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312
URNT12 KNHC 222335
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2247Z
B. 25 DEG 49 MIN N
69 DEG 00 MIN W
C. NA
D. 70 KT
E. 358 DEG 21 NM
F. 089 DEG 81 KT
G. 358 DEG 21 NM
H. EXTRAP 966 MB
I. 14 C/ 2216 M
J. 17 C/ 2373 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/NA
0. 1/ 1 NM
P. NOAA2 WXWXA JEANNE OB 01
MAX FLT WND 93 KTS W QUAD 2157Z, SLP EXTRAPOLATED FORM 7,000FT
Recon reports Jeanne is down to 25.8N, 69.0W....which is a due southward drift from the 5pm advisory. This continued southward motion is quickly throwing the forecast track out the window. The projection never had Jeanne getting below 25.9N. In my opinion, every increment south of the projected path that the hurricane travels increases the likelihood of an eventual track further west. 
Central pressure down another mb and flight winds of 93knots indicate she is holding her own at 100mph. It does seem that her IR presentation is a bit weaker....convection seems to have waned and the eye is growing in size.
--Lou
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> In my opinion, every increment south of the projected path that the hurricane travels increases the likelihood of an eventual track further west.
We gotta get the Varmint to perform a patented Rabbit Voodoo Hex [tm HF] on her.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at THIS latest Vortex message on :
866
URNT12 KNHC 222340
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2340Z
B. 27 DEG 02 MIN N
89 DEG 27 MIN W
C. NA
D. 30 KT
E. 314 DEG 052 NM
F. 031 DEG 36 KT
G. 314 DEG 034 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 24 C/ 256 M
J. 26 C/ 247 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. .1/5 NM
P. AF963 4409A INVEST OB 15
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NW QUAD 2257Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Doesn't that equate to a 45mph Tropical Storm???
--Lou
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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TROPICAL STORM UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2004
AN AIR FORCE PLANE IN JUST MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 10 PM CDT...0300Z SCHEDULED ADVISORY.
FORECASTER AVILA
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Jason Kelley
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Central Florida
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Careful about the rabbit trap as it might also get the redbird who lives near the rabbit................
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