SoonerShawn
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Doesn't that make it 50mph?
Edited by SoonerShawn (Thu Sep 23 2004 12:18 AM)
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LI Phil
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You gentlemen are just full of good news aren't you.
Anyone with a bunch of free time on their hands wanna do some research and find out if this is unprecedented? I gotta believe it is...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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It is 47kt flight level, which is > 50mph, however they adjust for it being flight level. There is a formula somewhere (don't have the link) to do the adjustment.
Bill
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LI Phil
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>>> Careful about the rabbit trap as it might also get the redbird who lives near the rabbit................
No, the rabbit voodoo hex dissipates otherwise healthy storms for no apparent reason. We need another one of those.
well, when i started referring to it first i meant it as a joke on the fact that rabbit almost always errs on the side of underdevelopment when there's something potentially wrong with a strengthening forecast.. but yeah, we could use one of those too. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 23 2004 12:26 AM)
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Redbird
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Hey would be cool if he could get the hex running on the quick as we down here are still smarting from . Now go get some of that delicious street food NYC is famous for.
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recmod
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Usually they estimate that surface winds are roughly 90% of Flight Level measurements. That would equate to 42 knots...likely rounded off to 40knots (ie 45mph)
--Lou
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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A system moving north and regenerating has never happened before anywhere, although there were three storms that went north and back south
1906
1946
Gordon, 1994
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Keith234
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Get some of that food and you might die of food posioning!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Look at http://images.ibsys.com/sh/images/weather/auto/at_ir_loop_640x480.gif
I swear that Lisa just disappeared from the scope. I thought there were 'blobs' there, Lisa and her snapping turtle friend. Now, I only see the turtle????
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
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>>> well, when i started referring to it first i meant it as a joke on the fact that rabbit almost always errs on the side of underdevelopment when there's something potentially wrong with a strengthening forecast.. but yeah, we could use one of those too. -HF
I'm sorry if I misunderstood you...I thought the hex was more sinister and had magical capabilities. Damn. Still, I like my definition better, but since it's your TM, gotta go with that 
def #2 is fine. don't suspect rabbit really is sacraficing chickens and spreading the blood on florida's east coast... did get through after all.
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 23 2004 12:58 AM)
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Redbird
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Loc: Central Florida
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You just have to know where to look..............some of us have great noses for safe food and in my case my beak.
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SkeetoBite
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Track and Streets combined. Extreme close up on street level.
Waiting for Jeanne to commit to her forecast track and will update the map.
Full size here: www.skeetobite.com/weather
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VADavid
Unregistered
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I suspect that Jeanne is becoming an Annular Hurricane. Annular hurricanes usually have an exceptionally well defined eye with a single donut of not very deep convection. They generate much stronger winds that the convention would suggest. Jeanne has weak but organized convection and a very well defined large eye.
It makes sense too, since Jeanne is under good environmental conditions and seems to be strengthening. The other thing about Annular Hurricanes is that they tend to be more resilient. However, Jeanne's convection could just be waning because of the dry air all around her.
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Redbird
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Loc: Central Florida
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It does look like a nasty giant snapping turtle................
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SoonerShawn
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Loc: Pearland,Tx
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It's not a big deal but I'm just curious. I thought they rounded up on the winds instead of down. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
they found spot winds at flight level at 47kt.. 90% reduction gives 42kt or 47-48mph. given the organization/pressure i'd go with 35 or 40kt winds. got a hunch the track will be trending more to the beaumont area. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:05 AM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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It's been a while since I have posted, as I have been extremely busy, but I feel like I am in the movie "Groundhog's Day". Wasn't it just a week or so ago something named was in the SAME SPOT as it is now?
Ivan does a big loop.
Jeanne is completing its loop. When was the last time 2 named systems in a row did a loop?
This year it seems like nothing can kill a storm. treks over land for days, brings down much cooler air in its wake, survives, and despite very strong shear, is now a TS again.
Jeanne died maybe twice over Hispaniola, spit out a center, looked for a bit, now, without deep convection, has a well-defined eye and is moving back towards the US.
Lisa-probably had no business surviving as long as it did considering it was a small blob of convection, and will probably be eaten by the thing behind it.
Karl-thanks for sparing us.
When that hurricane hit South America earlier this year, I had no idea that it was the start of one of the most unusual seasons I can remember.
As far as models-the has switched its normal bias from the left to the right, now the 18Z swings much back to the left. That may be true, but drastic changes on an off-hour run is reason normally for skepticism.
If I wanted to write a bizarre story for this season before it started, I don't think it could have been as strange as this one has.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I've been noticing that the models aren't really showing any amplitude in the jetstream after Jeanne gets out of the picture. That should create some type of build up between the jet stream fronts and the cycle will start again just in time for the next storm to be in the picture. Lisa seems to be getting asborbed by the very organized wave behind her, that looks like something from the link Ricreig posted.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
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If whatever is behind Lisa swallows her whole, it should be named Hannibal (screw the fact that we already had Hermine) not Matthew.
hello, clarice.... -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:02 AM)
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Ricreig
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Quote:
Waiting for Jeanne to commit to her forecast track and will update the map.
Somehow, I don't think she will commit. How about a map showing the windfield between the closest currently forecast locations to give us inlanders and coastal people who've already seen more than enough some indication of what *might* happen if the forecast verifies. Otherwise, me thinks that because it probably won't commit, none of your most valuable maps will have been rendered. I actually used one of your maps at my (college) school to convince the dean to let our students off so they could either flee or find shelter....twice now in fact.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Clark
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Annular hurricanes are more of the very intense storms that, in effect, relax the shear around them. Isabel was one -- it's at about that strength where you start to see these storms. may well have been another. Jeanne's not there, and probably won't get there. The donut is but one factor...and truth be told, Jeanne's just a run-of-the-mill hurricane.
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