Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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That would be very helpful as those in Orlando and the coastal regions need bottom line facts in order to make some hard decisions. I hate the idea of possibly having to split again so soon but will if it keeps us safe.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Have you ever been in the city Redbird? There's a food cart every 20 feet, literally. Some places are known for their good food but only a LIer would know where that is unless you don't visit the city often. I'd be skeptical to get food from a food cart, who know's what they put in them!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
If whatever is behind Lisa swallows her whole, it should be named Hannibal (screw the fact that we already had Hermine) not Matthew.
Hannibal the Cannibal  Sounds right anyhow....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
That would be very helpful as those in Orlando and the coastal regions need bottom line facts in order to make some hard decisions. I hate the idea of possibly having to split again so soon but will if it keeps us safe.
Well, FACTS may be a bit strong of a word in that it is just a forecast and more than 3 days into the future at that, and we all know how accurate this years forecasts have been. Still, it would be nice to make some initial, tenative plans based upon the information his maps provide us. As his maps are *based* upon official forecasts and not his own speculation, they are very valuable as they depict the *current* thinking of the official forecasts.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Okay general info would be helpful and I meant to communicate that.............just a little frazzled right now like the rest of us in this tired leaky boat. Phil usually hooks us up with good 411..................after he grabs a bite to eat, we should see it.
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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We've been talking alot about Jeanne's effect on Haiti, so I thought some of you might find this interesting... and hopefully not too OT...
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&am...deforestation_3
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Allison
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
25.9N 70.8W 74 X X X 74 FT PIERCE FL X X 1 8 9
26.1N 72.2W 37 4 X X 41 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 8 8
26.5N 74.1W 1 19 2 1 23 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 6 6
MWCG 193N 814W X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4
MUGM 200N 751W X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3
If it doesn't turn, it looks like somewhere between Ft Pierce and Daytona are prime candidates for a landfall. Pray for a turn ... no make that a reverse loop ... out to sea.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I've remarked on this before, but why does insist on running "Storm Stories" when we have weather concerns? And another thing that pisses me off is they keep showing that ridiculous video from 1991 where, facing a F0 (Fujita scale) tornado, a bunch of folks seek refuge under a bridge. THIS IS THE WORST PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER during a tornado; anything stronger and we wouldn't have that video, they'd be dead.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i was trying to figure out where did she go? that was a very quick die out... lisa?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Henry Margusity's Column
POSTED: 8:05 p.m. September 22, 2004
The thoughts expressed in this column represent Henry Margusity's personal speculation. While they are considered in formulating Accuweather forecasts, the opinions of many other Accuweather meteorologists are also considered.
This discussion is updated only the days that Henry is available, usually Monday-Friday. Check the date above and come back often!
8pm Update
I would pay anything to hear the debate at the on why they decided to call the storm again. Hello, not a good move. On the other side of the coin, a great move. Why, now people will take the storm seriously along the Texas coast when they face a possible hurricane in 36 hours. Just watch what happens folks as the storm explodes prior to landfall.
More tomorrow on this fun filled weather pattern
I guess everyone at Accuweather has to try and be like JB. There is only one JB.
No way this guy will be right!
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Look at the latest model runs from Weather Underground. All but one now show a Florida landfall
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html
I just took down all the plywood from my house yesterday (that's how confident I was about Jeanne...ugh!) I'm beginning to regret that decision 
--Lou
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
I've remarked on this before, but why does insist on running "Storm Stories" when we have weather concerns?
Absolutely! At the very least, they could break in during commercials and provide updates.... maybe "Local on the 8's" at the bottom of the hour or something....
Quote:
And another thing that pisses me off is they keep showing that ridiculous video from 1991 where, facing a F0 (Fujita scale) tornado, a bunch of folks seek refuge under a bridge. THIS IS THE WORST PLACE TO SEEK SHELTER during a tornado; anything stronger and we wouldn't have that video, they'd be dead.
LOL... I agree... it's like showing video of people playing golf in a thunderstorm... or something equally ridiculous....
Nevertheless, I must say that I am fascinated by that video every time I see it....
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Allison
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Look at the latest model runs from Weather Underground. All but one now show a Florida landfall
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html
I just took down all the plywood from my house yesterday (that's how confident I was about Jeanne...ugh!) I'm beginning to regret that decision
--Lou
Yes Lou, and if you'd wash your car, it would only rain. But no, you *had* to take down the plywood, didn't you? 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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CentralFlorida
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: Port Richey FL
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rec i got tired of putting up the plywood and taking them off every weedend since I've just kept the plywood up. Hurricane season a little half over Im staying boarded lol.
kinda dark in here someone turn on the light.
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Survived Charley, Jeanne, Frances, Ivan and my Wife
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Yeah recmod, I was going to take down the hurricane panels on MOnday but I thought...I better wait a few more days to see what Jeanne does. Hopefully we won't need them. Also, I must say Joe Bastardi did a pretty good job on both and Jeanne...I know a lot of people thought he was insane when he said would back down the coast and go into the Gulf and reform. He also said Jeanne would make landfall...initially he said it would go into the Gulf which may not be right on, but MUCH closer than a lot of others. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I know my attention is on right now but what kind of games is the BAMM trying to play concerning Jeanne? Come on, it has it taking a track right over Florida and out into the gulf but then has it turn right back around and go over the same place again. This is not funny. It is insane. I pray that does not happen.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
Waiting for Jeanne to commit to her forecast track and will update the map.
Somehow, I don't think she will commit. How about a map showing the windfield between the closest currently forecast locations to give us inlanders and coastal people who've already seen more than enough some indication of what *might* happen if the forecast verifies. Otherwise, me thinks that because it probably won't commit, none of your most valuable maps will have been rendered. I actually used one of your maps at my (college) school to convince the dean to let our students off so they could either flee or find shelter....twice now in fact.
The greatest concern in rendering these maps is in providing meaningful information. When the forecast path is in question, folks can be startled very easily when you start showing them street names.
Once (if) Jeanne decides to turn due west or NNW, we'll crank up the map programs and update with each advisory.
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Why, now people will take the storm seriously along the Texas coast when they face a possible hurricane in 36 hours. Just watch what happens folks as the storm explodes prior to landfall.
No way this guy will be right!
Please tell me you're knockin' on wood right now... 
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Allison
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Thanks Skeet..................we appreciate this a lot!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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We won't have 5 named storms in the basin.
The death knell has sounded for Lisa. It wasn't her big brother Karl that did her in, it's her kid brother TD 14/Matthew that has done it. I imagine advisories will be dropped after 11pm -- or at the latest, 5am, barring any redevelopment.
In any case, 4 is quite a feat -- and one you don't see all that often. And -- time for me to eat a bit of crow on this one. But, with an upper low to it's south, I don't think it's got too much strengthening before it makes landfall. Hopefully it'll get caught up in that broad trough in the west and never bother anyone again after this.
Karl's behaving nicely, like all storms should this time of year. And Jeanne -- she's not behaving so nicely, like every other storm this year. Models are coming into agreement on a Florida landfall again -- there's a storm that took a path like this into Florida about 20-25yr ago, but I don't recall the name -- but we'll see how long that holds. Thankfully she's more akin in areal expanse to than or , but it's not good news that we are even talking about another landfall. I'd love to see forecast track error verification once this one's done.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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