MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11PM Update
The threat to Florida from Jeanne has increased tonight as the models are starting to shift further west and not show a northerly turn. Unfortunately, this means the Florida East coast from West Palm up to Jacksonville (and maybe further southward) needs to be watching Jeanne a lot closer. The rest of the southeast coast north of Florida also still needs to watch, as Jeanne has been performing poorly with the models.
9PM
Ivan to be a tropical storm at 11PM EDT advisory...
Karl is still spinning in the atlantic and Lisa is about dead due to what will probably be our next tropical depression behind kt.
Original Update
Amazingly, has reformed as a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico nearly a week after it landfalled in the Florida Panhandle / Alabama coast. Which iis up there on my amazing scale. This year is turning out to be the most interesting track years I have ever seen.
Do not focus on exact track of path
Thanks to
The regenerated is forecast to head toward the Texas coast as a minimal tropical storm. It's center is exposed now, so I think it will remain weak.
Jeanne is starting to make its move, and may be close to the US coastline later this weekend. It's prudent to watch now, especially in the Carolinasl, but as it nears the Bahamas it will be prudent that everyone along the east coast watches it. It seems to be getting stronger tonight.
Event Related Links
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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could this season get any weirder??
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Now you know that is tempting the fates to show us just how weird it can get. LOL
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Well, the forecast brings him right over my house in about 30 hours. I take a weak TS over a CAT 3 hurricane any day. We could really use the rain anyway.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I still think it is in terrible taste, even if meterologically correct, to give this storm the name ...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The problem is that the way is right now all the convection is to the north of the actual center. This means if it goes right over you there won't be much rain.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I was hoping they would change his name. -a/ a would be semi-appropriate.
I wouldn't wish for rain from this guy. He puts out an awful lot of rain in a hurry.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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I agree Phil. it will only remind and confuse people.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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However, there is reasoning....read Avilia's disco (which is forthcoming)...
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Jason Kelley
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Well, the forecast brings him right over my house in about 30 hours. I take a weak TS over a CAT 3 hurricane any day. We could really use the rain anyway.
If it stays on the current track, I'll be on the dry side...
I'm not trying to wishcast or anything, but I do hope I get some rain out of this.... 
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Allison
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I may go LOOPY pretty soon. Jeanne performing her loop and now has just completed the mother of all loops. What's next?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Don't ask! They resumed the numbering on the statements !!!
Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 22 2004 07:12 PM)
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Fruit Loops not just for breakfast anymore.............LOL
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I still think it is in terrible taste, even if meterologically correct, to give this storm the name ...
What does this do to your season numbers foreczst? It *is* a named storm, possibly TS, but it isn't a *new* named storm, or is ti?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I believe nothing changes, numbers wise...interesting point though. is still .
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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From Special Discussion No. 67 referenced by Jason...
after considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion of the
demise of ...in the midst of a low-pressure and surface frontal
system over the eastern United States...the National Hurricane
Center has decided to call the tropical cyclone now over the Gulf
of Mexico Tropical Depression . While debate will surely
continue here and elsewhere...this decision was based primarily on
the reasonable continuity observed in the analysis of the surface
and low-level circulation....
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html
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Allison
Edited by Allison (Wed Sep 22 2004 07:17 PM)
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I believe nothing changes, numbers wise...interesting point though. is still .
I was *hoping* you would tick the counter anyhow...We *Really* need to get this season over and the quicker your numbers are used up, the quicker the season will be over...or doesn't it work that way 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
I was *hoping* you would tick the counter anyhow...We *Really* need to get this season over and the quicker your numbers are used up, the quicker the season will be over...or doesn't it work that way
Of course it works that way...if you believe that you also believe that Yusuf Islam (first one to get that reference gets HUGE bonus points) will be admitted back into this country. Here's a hint...Moonshadow.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Of course it works that way...if you believe that you also believe that Yusuf Islam (first one to get that reference gets HUGE bonus points) will be admitted back into this country. Here's a hint...Moonshadow.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/09/22/plane.diverted.stevens/index.html
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Allison
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richg
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 10
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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I mostly just read the posts here but I can't resist a trivia question...the answer would be Cat Stevens!
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