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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
      #3005 - Wed Sep 11 2002 05:08 AM

8PM Update
Tropical Depression #9 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. More will come tomorrow...

Original Update

Gustav, now a pure tropical system, is turning away from North Carolina, as projected earlier, and may chance have a run at hurricane status before moving out to die in the North Atlantic.

Elsewhere, the Gulf of Mexico has an area that will have to survive shear soon to form, and if it does it won't be anytime soon.

Last year at this time there were no storms bearing down either, but for Washington, DC and New York, NY... and the country and western world as a whole, an attack on us the likes not seen since Pearl Harbor occurred. I myself was stricken by a bacterial form of strep throat at the time... sitting very ill and feverish in a doctors office in south Orlando watching TV waiting... watching before, during, and after it happened intently.

The day was surreal for me, as I'm sure it was for many others. Already feeling rotten, this made it worse until the desire for those to survive and live on and more importantly fight back occurred. Even though I was extremely ill, I managed to overcome it for the day, and it wasn't even on my mind. The confusion and thought that what is next crept in and was more alert than ever before. Before I went home I sat in the deli planet trying to eat, watching the television for news, as was everyone else.

The many lives lost and brave new heroes that came to light will never be forgotten by our generation. I hope and pray nothing similiar happens ever again, but the price of our freedom in the United States is eternally having to be vigilant and ready to preserve it. Together with some our stronger allies such as Great Britain, Australia and others I believe it will remain so.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Edited by MikeC (Wed Sep 11 2002 08:47 PM)


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
      #3006 - Wed Sep 11 2002 06:04 AM

On 9-11 last year we had a different type of storm. The impact was felt everywhere. Today, as we look back and remember I want to thank all the brave men and women who serve to keep us safe, and may GOD continue to comfort the victims families.

Thank you CFHC for the opportunity to reflect.
9-11-01 WE WILL NEVER FORGET....


--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
      #3008 - Wed Sep 11 2002 08:46 AM

God Bless America. God Bless Our Children.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
      #3009 - Wed Sep 11 2002 10:43 AM

Area of disturbed weather in the Central GOM looking better organized, but no rotation. Most NWS sites have disregarded AVN solution...I wouldn't be that brave. Let's see how it unfolds this afternoon. Wave in the East Atlantic looks good, and the UKMET puts a TS near NE Puerto Rico at 120 hours. Definitely potential there. Quiet this morning around town: 9/11. Let's continue to enjoy the quiet before the storm. Cheers!! Steve H.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
9/11
      #3010 - Wed Sep 11 2002 11:17 AM

rememberance is great, but all i care about now is killing the rest of al qaida and stepping on iraq like an insect. well.. this is the time of year al qaida usually tries something.. sure hope we've crippled enough of them. iraq.. well, could have fixed that problem years ago. u.s. has its back up now, so its either comply with our demands or fight.. that will be 2003. anyone who cared about their country would comply, and saddam never would, so really we will be doing the iraqis a favor and giving them a chance at something other than dictatorship. then again, they seem to like being sacraficed in his power schemes like human pawns. allah akhbar, lets go get martyred, i guess. my question: regular or extra crispy? tropics.. bastardi's ideas this morning about the gulf actually agree with what i thought up last night.. sort of. it's heavy rain and maybe a hybrid system for florida (which may then stairstep up the east coast).. or something that emerges from the marginal environment west gulf and fights its way out.
gustav is now a hurricane, first of the season. awkward that it has a pressure of 975mb and only 75mph winds.. it never did get a classic tropical structure or pressure/wind profile. paying a visit to newfoundland tomrorrow.
old TD 7.. drifting wnw near 26/59. i continue to mention it because it continues to exist, though not in an overt fashion. gustav is injecting moisture ahead of this small low.. which will either be swept up or allowed to make another shot at it.
waves.. 45w has had its energy displaced well north thanks to shear, and has the unenviable task of crossing 1000 miles or so of upper westerlies in a not so moist environment. on the other hand, models still track the wave as far as the bahamas in five days. have to see how well it holds.
30w wave.. broad, well defined rotation, but not much convection. more ridging to play under than the one before it. some models like this one (especially ukmet). more convection would make this an invest.. and deepen it. how far it can go before the westerlies on the supercharged TUTT start hitting it.. cant say. if it develops slowly it may keep a more southerly track and be a worry to the islands.. quick development and it gets shunted north and slashed. i favor the first option, as most models are saying so.
may.. may not.. get one this week behind gustav. hard to call.
HF 1511z11september


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
      #3011 - Wed Sep 11 2002 12:40 PM

NWS Melbourne, FL gives Kudos to the AVN for it's call, which put all the other models to shame concerning the return of moisture across the peninsula and the upper/mid/surface features it called for. Now will they give credibility to it's deepening of the Low pressure area?? Here's NWS Miami:

IF THE LOW OVER THE GULF STARTS TO REALLY DEVELOP LIKE THE AVN IS
SAYING THEN WE COULD THEN POSSIBILITY SEE MORE RAINFALL THEN WHAT WE
ARE FORECASTING FOR OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BUT I AM
WAITING ON NHC DISCUSSION BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANCES TO THE ZONES TO
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

Guess it's wait and see if pressures fall and one develops. Cheers!! Steve H.


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
      #3012 - Wed Sep 11 2002 12:55 PM

with most of south fla under a flood watch because of this "system" looks like the NHC would investigate this today instead of tomorrow.

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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
Plan For Tomorrow
      #3014 - Wed Sep 11 2002 01:40 PM

116
NOUS42 KNHC 111430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI,FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 11 SEP 2002
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z SEP TO 13/1100Z SEP 2002
TCPOD NUMBER.....02-112

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 12/1500Z A. 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 12/1300Z C. 12/1730Z
D. 26.0N 85.0W D. NA
E. 12/1400Z TO 12/2100Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 13/0300,0900Z D. 27.0N 84.0W
B. AFXXX 03GGA CYCLONE E. 13/0200Z T0 13/0930Z
C. 13/0100Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....BEGIN 6-HRLY

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Tony
Unregistered




Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
      #3015 - Wed Sep 11 2002 01:49 PM

Miami NWS AFD 1:01 pm
Advises AVN/NOGAPS/MM5/ and Canadian Models develop Gulf Low, move it east and then northeast to somehwere over North Florida/Panhandle.
Tony


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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
      #3016 - Wed Sep 11 2002 01:52 PM

Just reading the NHC text on Gustav and read the following: "...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES."

What does "BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS " mean?

A quick note about 9/11. I was driving into work today @8:40 am. I knew that a moment of silence would be observed at 8:46am. Now, having spent some time in Israel (did a military stint there in the early 80's) the Israeli's observe a moment of silence as follows: The warning sirens go off, and EVERYBODY stops what they are doing and stands at attention. I mean EVERYTHING and EVERYONE stops. Even on the highways !! Cars, buses, trucks come to a complete stop, everybody gets out and stands at attention. This is (was) an amazing site. I was not sure that anybody would do that here, but I passed a Church which had the American flag and our state flag (GA) flying at half mast. I pulled in, got out and observed a moment of silence. About 5 or 6 other cars pulled in and joined me. This is the America that I know; we stand together through good and bad. Time to turn the gun barrels around !!! G-d bless the USA….


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Plan For Tomorrow
      #3017 - Wed Sep 11 2002 02:19 PM

Rad am I reading this wrong or isn't that at 10 am tomorrow they are going out? It looks like they would want to take a look see today. Of course i could be making a hurricane out of a thunderstorm. LOL
Just noticed the tornado warning for South Fla. Looks like they are in for a few rough days of rough weather.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
gustav/gulf
      #3018 - Wed Sep 11 2002 02:28 PM

gustav has dropped to 969mb last recon.. plane called back 91kt winds but in the message body it mentions 100kt ones. the surface mid latitude low developing over the gulf of maine is probably giving gustav that baroclinic strengthening kick, right before they start to merge. that will probably happen tonight.
gulf.. surface winds are showing what is probably a closed low (open west if anything) developing in the central gulf. NRL has gone so far as to tag it invest 98L.. the 19th of the year. lots of intense convection SE of the possible surface system. lowest wind/pressure i found was 1009mb/25kt. since the NHC has found the term subtropical storm suitable for tropical systems that dont have all the classic features, could get a subtrop here within 24hrs, my thinking goes. of course there is major subsidence intrusion to the north and westerly shear.. so also very possibly just an elongated trough with very heavy rain on the east side. recon wont be there until whatever is going to happen has already happened.
HF 1822z11september


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
looks like...
      #3019 - Wed Sep 11 2002 02:52 PM

think the bastardi column has now been locked off to the general public. oh well, great while it lasted.
HF 1847z11september


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Joe's still up...
      #3020 - Wed Sep 11 2002 03:07 PM

He put up a post today. Accuweather fades in and out from time to time. I think he's live until the end of September.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re:Just looked at it...
      #3021 - Wed Sep 11 2002 03:12 PM

site is a little slow though.

Houstontracker


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Gustav at 100 kts!
      #3022 - Wed Sep 11 2002 03:18 PM

According to the recon data on the NHC site, the latest Vortex Message shows estimated surface winds at 100 kts / 115 mph. This would make Gustav a Category 3 / Major Hurricane. Will be interesting to see what the 5pm Advisory package says about his strength!

As for the GOM, it certainly looks to be trying to develop, but i think NHC should be in there today not tomoroow! Although, if surface obs / satellite / radar show anything they might surprise us with perhaps a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement...

Rich B

StormWarn2000

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
GOMEX INVEST and 9/11 rememberence
      #3023 - Wed Sep 11 2002 03:20 PM

9/11: It is really hard to believe that a year has already passed since this has happened. Now is a the time to remember the lives lost...firefighters, police, civilians. These people along with the WTC is now gone but will never be forgotten. Going into unsafe buildings to get people out...that's what I call bravery. Our police/firefighters/military deserve a prayer from everybody. Things of changed a lot since that terrible day 1 year ago. I'll always remember when I was in my first hour class when our teacher rushed in and turned the TV on. With a frantic look on her face she said, "The World Trade Center has been bombed." I will remember that for the rest of my life.

GOMEX (98L): Definitely something forming out there and will probably come in the direction of Florida. Don't know how strong this will get...don't even know if it will be tropical in nature. I'm thinking LOTS of heavy rain from this at the least. If it is a subtropical storm could do lots of damage without being strong...SS's are just different than TC's in nature, especially winds and windfields. Anyway, Florida is due for some strong weather by the end of this week unless INVEST 98L just falls apart. Certainly don't expect that...but given the way things have been this year I'd be inclined to expect the unexpected.
Strange that Gabrielle was happening around this time last year...situation kind of similar in nature to 98L.

GOD BLESS AMERICA
We remeber those lost on 9/11.

Kevin


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: GOMEX INVEST and 9/11 rememberence
      #3024 - Wed Sep 11 2002 03:27 PM

Winds 38mph and gust to 46mph with pressure down to 29.76. Somethings going on. At buoy#42003

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: GOMEX INVEST and 9/11 rememberence
      #3025 - Wed Sep 11 2002 03:38 PM

still kinda divergent on then evolution of a low SW of Florida. PoPs will be high throughout the 3 day period with easing off the southern zones late friday into saturday. Evolution of a low sw of florida may happen, but dry air on the west side and upper level winds not all toofavorable for a strong system to develop as does AVN/NOGAPS. Im disregarding ETA/NGM solutions of keeping a low in sw gulf. Mid level dry air is already grinding into the area. Future track of low should bring it alittle further east then most forcast. Certainty is very low in exact location. Currently Tampa-panama city in line with Cedar Key. Strength is even more uncertain. UkMet is nonexistant and should be ruled out but Avn is overdone. Right now thinking is that NOGAPS solution and GFDL is best with a weak - moderate TS moving ene then NE to NE gulf over next 48 hours and onshore later Friday night. Intensity though is very uncertain, but mositure in pops of 3-5 inches north fla, 1-4 central, and 2 and under southern expected over next 48-72 hours. Ill post more later on updates and on my personal site. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter

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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: GOMEX INVEST and 9/11 rememberence
      #3026 - Wed Sep 11 2002 03:46 PM

Gulf looks better and better as time goes on. Not sure if NHC will jump this to TD at 5pm, but this is certainly something to watch. Either way FL is going to get some heavy rains over next couple of days.

GOD BLESS AMERICA! (9/11)


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