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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ugh [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30221 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 AM

The current track brings her right along the coast where you are. I would stay vigilant with this storm especially.

Kyle

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Liz L.]
      #30222 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:52 AM

Lois,

Catch the 12Z NOGAPS HERE!

Phil,

You got that part wrong. Ivan would possibly loop SW down through Texas and emerge into the southern Gulf. He's worried about the Southern Gulf anyway, but notes that that if it's Ivan, it's a "pre-existing spin" and parallels thereafter with Opal are real (though almost unimanginable).

WX2,

What, we've had 5 (essentially) Florida landfalls already this year? Bonnie, Charlie, Frances x 2, Ivan (though technically a Baldwin Co., Alabama landfall, damage was at least as bad and in some cases worse in Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties, FL.

Should Jeanne make it to the Peninsula, then possibly Ivan Part III, it would really be an unprecidented year for your people.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
JB [Re: Steve]
      #30224 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:55 AM

Sorry Steve, I goofed...a little...here's what he said:

"But then the potential argument is, would it be Ivan? The question would be answered easily if I knew it would do what I fear, which is simply march along the Texas coast, then turn southeastward early next week into the Gulf near 25 and 92.5 by Tuesday. Then it would start northeastward. In the ultimate irony, it would head back toward where it hit in the first place. "

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Steering Currents [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30225 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:57 AM

I normally would PM you, but you're not registered, so I can't.

Quote:

So, Colleen...out of curiosity, what are your predictions for the Scott Peterson trial?




GUILTY. The jury is now laughing at Geragross (sp mistake intentional) when he does his cross; 7 weeks ago they were laughing with him.
Not a good sign for Mr. Liar Liar Pants On Fire.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: JB [Re: LI Phil]
      #30226 - Thu Sep 23 2004 11:58 AM

No problem Phil.

Bobbi,

Unfortunately the loop at NOGAPS isn't working yet, so you have to step them yourself from the FNMOC site right here.

What is very interesting is the NOGAPS is now going with a double Florida landfall scenario (making it #6 and #7 on the year). I think it may be a bit far west, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30227 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:02 PM

Skeet I notice you do not have Jeanne making a landfall. Is that right for me to assume on your forecast? Your site is awesome.

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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL 28.92N 81.22W
Re: Climatology Out the window this year [Re: LoisCane]
      #30228 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:02 PM

Is the high on the nnw side good or bad? Help me out.

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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lois
Unregistered




well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #30229 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:09 PM

she wont go very far north in her westward progress which would make it harder to miss the state

opens ups doors for other possibilities too

also could keep her out there longer which could in time enhance her strength and bring her in stronger..

storms cant go where the high builds in
that is my question on this current scenario

that is what worries me
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


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lois
Unregistered




ps [Re: lois]
      #30230 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:11 PM

since beginning of the loop dry air/high pressure has eaten up all of north carolina and moving down to gobble up south carolina

if storm was moving fast now.. could see where forecast works well

but she isnt moving too fast and if the high creeps further down the coast line.. worried about NOGAPS scenario not being so far fetched and dont see how GFDL verifies


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Redbird]
      #30231 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:14 PM

>>> Skeet I notice you do not have Jeanne making a landfall. Is that right for me to assume on your forecast? Your site is awesome.

Actually, Skeeter is using NHC coords to make his awesome maps, and unless I'm mistaken, it's showing 2 landfalls...however, hurricanes don't move in the straight line shown, so it's more likely at the moment that it's just one landfall, then riding up the coast inland. This forecast path will change with each new model run, so use the map for guidance and preparation only...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some [Re: lois]
      #30232 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 PM

All 3 models,,,,,Nogaps, GFS, and CMC have landfall in florida now. GFS does still take it NW but this time just alittle more w then last run making landfall near Jupiter,fl then NW near Orlando then N. NOGAPS takes her into Ft Lauderdale across to Ft Myers and the CMC is alittle north with landfall near Vero Beach across the state to Tampa. Havent seen the Ukmet yet and also the GFDL. All so far make landfall in 66-72hrs. I expect hurricane watches will go up for Bahamas this evening at 5pm and 5am on Friday morning from Dade (should be Broward county) north to around Flager beach. Not sure though how far north but they might have a long strech due to possilbe turn NW near the coast or over the state.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: LI Phil]
      #30233 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:16 PM

I have been lurking for a few months and I finally registered today. I am 26.2N and I am getting worried. I have supplies and I filled my tank this am. My prayers to all of us!
26.2N 80.1W


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: JB [Re: Steve]
      #30234 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:19 PM

The CMC is calling for a double FL hit too. Oh boy!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Redbird]
      #30235 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:19 PM

Quote:

Skeet I notice you do not have Jeanne making a landfall. Is that right for me to assume on your forecast? Your site is awesome.




We have the precision down to about 100 meters on these maps, based on NHC coordinates.

Personally, I think it will track left, just like all of the prior storms this year. Seems to be a huge "right bias" to the models and NHC guidance. Novice observation - spotting trends is easier than predicting them ;-)


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30236 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:20 PM

Thanks for the tip..............................it helps

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30237 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:21 PM

12Z GFS shows her coming in near FT. Lauderdale, over Lake Okeechobee, towards Tampa and it ends there at 84 hours. Waiting for more frames.

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COgal
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30238 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:21 PM

I would rather not have Jeanne coming anywhere near Florida but if she INSISTS on riding the coast like this I can only be thankful that most of the time the NE quad doesn't cover land.
Thank you Skeetobite for such informative maps!


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: COgal]
      #30239 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:23 PM

Yeah those of us right on the coast would feel it way before you if she came in closer though...........northeast quad going right over titusville............not comforting.

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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 33
Loc: Deerfield Beach
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #30240 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:23 PM

Scott,
That would out me in the NE quadrant I am north of Lauderdale and South of Boca. Looks like I'll be evacuating tomorrow. I live on the beach.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Climatology Says.... [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30241 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:26 PM

Quote:

At the end of the last thread, Ed in VA posted that climatology shows that in September, cat 1 and 2 storms never hit FL from this position. True, but what if she is a cat 3 ?




Climatalogically speaking, the section of the Gulf Coast that was hit by Ivan does not get hit by storms that strong. Among other items, this is not a climatalogically normal season.

--------------------
Jim


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