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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Redbird]
      #30242 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:27 PM

Ft Lauderdale? My eyesight must be bad, I see it near Jupiter to Orlando to Jacksonville. OLD AGE AT 34 I guess.

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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Ivan [Re: SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL]
      #30243 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:27 PM

I think I'm going to turn my attention to Jeanne and hope that somehow she stays clear of Florida. Ivan is pretty much a dud now. I don't think there will be much with him even where he does make landfall. I know that is good news, but we did need a little bit of rain here. I would much rather have this than another Allison,though. All you in Florida stay safe!!!

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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale 26.43N 80.33W
Who to blame? [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #30244 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:36 PM

Homestead Florida:
Four children and their father were killed in a house fire last night. They were all trapped in a bedroom. Their mother was in the hospital after giving birth to a baby girl. Hurricane shutters were to blame for the deaths.

Which one of these f-ing storms gets to claim them? I seriously feel like we are gonna lose it soon. Too much heartache.

I can't even process Haiti right now.

This has all just been to much.


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: scottsvb]
      #30245 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:40 PM

Scottsvb, are you looking at the 6z GFS run. 12Z is definitely further west, but its hard to tell if its near Miami or WPB or Stuart since its hard to figure where exactly the center is.....north side of the "L" or the middle. Check the run you're looking at.

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Who to blame? [Re: Kent]
      #30246 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:41 PM

Been watching the sat loops lately, and the WV loop is of particular interest to me. It appears that Jeanne is getting stretched out a little. You can clearly see the high building down almost right on top of her, and part of the convection surrounding her heads back east, and another part gets pulled up to the NW towards the SC/GA border. The high even seems to building down just in front of her a bit, and it will be interesting to see exactly how far south it can get.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Sunday & Monday [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #30247 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:42 PM

yeah i was looking at the 12Z run. Looks to me like Jupiter but yeah your right it dont matter cause its 72 hrs out and models will change alittle each run.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
What AgentB said... [Re: AgentB]
      #30248 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:45 PM

Jeanne WV

Not exactly sure what she's doing...if she's undergoing an ERC, that can't be good...because ERC's usually only take place in MAJOR canes...

scott...what do you make of the loop?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Who to blame? [Re: Kent]
      #30249 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:46 PM

Here's a link to the story about the family in Homestead,FL.
http://www.nbc6.net/news/3754058/detail.html


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #30250 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:46 PM

Oh, Lois...I do NOT like the look of that loop.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: well if the high builds in to the nnw of her some [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30251 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:50 PM

THURSDAY POST

HERE'S Ivan....THERE'S JEANNE...STORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST..

As we told you yesterday, the system in the Gulf did indeed become a tropical storm and the question this morning is..will Ivan become a hurricane prior to landfall. The answer is maybe. Ok, it will be close. If the storm continues to move west towards Galveston, then it has the chance to develop. In any case, winds will start to pick along the upper Texas coast and the Louisiana coast with gusts 50-60 mph. The other concern today will be the heavy rain and flooding. Through this afternoon, the band of convection moving up the back side of Ivan will eventually move into New Orleans. I can see several inches of rain, perhaps more, across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The next area for heavy rain will over Houston tonight. At this time, the convection around the center is sparse, but give it time and we should se thunderstorms developing in and around the center.




This guy will not give up! He is suppose to do a report on Jeanne later. I can only imagine what he'll say about her.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: What AgentB said... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30252 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:52 PM

Here's the NW Atlantic WV loop that shows the "big picture" regarding the high pressure building in and Jeanne getting "stretched out".

NW Atlantic WV Loop

--------------------
Check the Surf


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MO Stormspotter
Unregistered




Re: What AgentB said... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30253 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:57 PM

Please define ERC

(Yep I am still learning...)


Thanks


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: What AgentB said... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30254 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:59 PM

Wow...if that high comes down any further, I think we're looking at Steve H's scenario. Over Lake Okeechobee? Yikes...wonder how warm the water is there. Since it's not that far inland, *if* it does go across it, we're also looking at the possibility about her still being a 'cane as she crosses the peninsula.
There should be a law.......
Where are they showing the second landfall in Florida...wait, let me guess: the Panhandle?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Thunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: What AgentB said... [Re: MO Stormspotter]
      #30255 - Thu Sep 23 2004 12:59 PM

"Please define ERC

(Yep I am still learning...)"




Eye replacement cycle...Right? I'm still learning too.

Edited by Thunder (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:01 PM)


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from Gainesville
Unregistered




Re: What AgentB said... [Re: Thunder]
      #30256 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:02 PM

I think it's actually EYEWALL replacement cycle. Essentially the same thing, I guess...

Actually the eye and the eyewall are quite different...a lot of us WISH they'd undergo an Eye replacement!

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:07 PM)


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Thunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 29
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: What AgentB said... [Re: from Gainesville]
      #30257 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:03 PM

Quote:

I think it's actually EYEWALL replacement cycle. Essentially the same thing, I guess...




Right you are!
I didn't think you Gators were that bright... I stand corrected!

Thanks,
T

Edited by Thunder (Thu Sep 23 2004 01:05 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: What AgentB said... [Re: from Gainesville]
      #30258 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:04 PM

It's Eyewall Replacement Cycle

Here's a great link explaining it in much better terms than I ever could.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re:Noon visible shots [Re: Thunder]
      #30259 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:07 PM

Here's some shots of Ivan,jr and Jeanne.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES16402004267JwNxGQ.jpg

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES165520042673IadrR.jpg


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: What AgentB said... [Re: from Gainesville]
      #30260 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:08 PM

Yes, it would be "eyewall replacement cycle" which basically happens when a storm is trying to get herself back together. If you look at the visibles, she isn't looking all that ragged to me. She may be going through a "strengthening stage", much like Ivan did on several 100 occasions.
Recon will better be able to tell us where the "eyewall" is and if there is a pressure drop, etc.
I sure hope people are paying attention to their local media, or they might be in for a big surprise.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: What AgentB said... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30261 - Thu Sep 23 2004 01:13 PM

The one thing on that WV loop that has caught my eye over and over again is where the storms leaving Jeanne heading west have gone. For quite a while they have followed a channel of sorts to the NW and up towards SC. Obviously the high is still building in so that "channel" will move. However, I'm still wondering if she will even get moved along by the edge of that ridge because it looks like it's trying to setup right in front of her. One thing I have taken some note of is that this high pressure was pretty strong, and all the models this year seem to have had trouble factoring the strength of the ridges into their forecast paths.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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