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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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tropix
Unregistered




Re: Allison in Katy [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #30625 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:07 PM

all i know is that is some heavy ass rain around beaumont
looks nw ish


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dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
Re: Crow Munching Forecast [Re: Bioman]
      #30626 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:07 PM

In Santa Rosa and Escambia counties, it'll be 14 days Friday with no end in sight. The counties are talking to the commissioner to see what to do about a shortened academic calendar. Even the local colleges University of West Florida and Pensacola Junior College are closed until further notice.

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
West Movement [Re: dwlobo]
      #30627 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:07 PM

I have to make this brief because I have to put Thing 1 and Thing 2 to bed....but it's definitely moving towards the west again.

I learned a lot from Ivan and I have no reason to doubt their landfall prediction.

You know it's bad when you make it on the show "ON THE RECORD" with Greta van Susteran...and JB is her first guest.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30628 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:07 PM

I thought this kind of captured most Floridians view of the storms this year. Thought about posting as a question, but not sure how many Phish Phans out there.

Squirming Coil

I saw Satan on the beach
trying to catch a ray
He wasn't quite the speed of light
and the squirming coil
it got away....

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Crow Munching Forecast [Re: COgal]
      #30629 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:10 PM

COGAL - If you want a free service to receive weather alerts and many other features, try www.my-cast.com. They have a great radar too, that updates regularly. Try it out it is free. Sorry do not want to plug another site, but since it is free, I am hoping its ok..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: scottsvb]
      #30630 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:10 PM

Also just to let everyone know that the 18Z GFS run with the Ukmet 12Z dont have the right data into it in recognizing the strength of the ridge to the NW,,, just as stewart said. So even though the GFS model shows a landfall just north of WPB and hugging the coast,,,a stronger ridge in the data should bring it onshore by at least LakeOkeb. Also dont rely on the tropical model suites,,,they are run offs of the GFS and change from run to run. So with the GFS 18Z it will reflect in the current OZ runs of the BAMM, BAMD,Lbar. So I would just right them off.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Scott... [Re: scottsvb]
      #30631 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:11 PM

>>> Im back online to post tonight for the next few hours, any questions you all have let me know. If you want to know my prediction or reasons for whats going on then look at the last thread and I think it was page 8?

Scottsvb, do you want me to repost it here?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Scott... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30632 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:11 PM

sure why not.LOL

Gimme about 30 seconds...

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 23 2004 10:12 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30633 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:12 PM

Where is Cantore? He can stay at my house.

BTW...I called the Chamber of Commerce in Port St. Joe's to ask them about the storm....she didn't have a clue.

The trip is off.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30634 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:14 PM

I think Cantore is out shaving his head.. readying himself for the next close up.. LOL..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: Fletch]
      #30635 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:15 PM

In the spirit of the night:

Jeanne picks her target.
She hides her choice from our view.
She is no lady.

--------------------
Jim


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Scottsvb's forecast...I think this was posted around 3:00 pm today [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30636 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:15 PM

Scott posted this about 10 hours ago...

"First off you cant go by the exact points that the NHC has listed as their track. For example many have noticed the 25.6N for the next 36 hours but we know most of the time storms will wobble along the axis. If I was the NHC I would of gone 25.8 then 25.9 then keep it there a extra 6 hrs then move it up again another.1 or .2 even by 48hrs. So what Im saying it will be near 26.2N in 48hrs from now. Thing is over the last 12 hrs the mid level flow around the strong ridge still way off to the NW was losing its reach on Jeanne. Now with a light steering flow she wobbled to the wnw over the last few hours. She will though start to feel the ridge more as it moves southeast from Penns- the midatlantic states over the next 24hrs so this will change the current 280-285dg track back to a almost due west track of 270-275dg. Some of the models show this on the mid level flow pattern.
She will run over cooler SSTs this afternoon halting any intensification but later this evening into tonight she should start to strengthn slightly with the night time durational affects. It could be close to a Cat 3 by morning. After rolling thru the bahamas and very close to Nassau, By late Friday night into the morning Sat she should lose the due west course but its unsure of it will be truley WNW at 295dg or more 280-285 during the day Saturday. Anyways, none the less, a moderate strengthning affect should happen when she encounters the warm gulf stream waters. These waters were only partially affected by Frances plus Frances was a few weeks ago so the waters had time to recover up to 28-29c. Shear will begin though and could hamper any great intensification before landfall. Landfall is tough to pinpoint due to it being 66hrs out from now and the shape of the florida coastline. Right now as hard as it is Im going to say it will make landfall around 115-125mph from Pompano beach-Jupiter inlet. This is my 50mile swath for 3 days out or so. It could reach Lake Ockechobee or NE part causing extreme conditions near south bay, belle glade, and even Cleweston area around the lake. Jeanne should slowly weaken and head NW and even NNW into southern Polk county thru there on Sunday afternoon (abouts) to west of Orlando. It could then move N or even NNE coming up close to Jacksonville. Anyways really after it gets to Lake Ockechobee really all bets are off right now as that is just after 72 hrs out. IM not 100% sure it wont just go WNW to Sarasota then NW near Clearwater and up to the Panhandle or by the lake go NNW between Orlando and the Cape and exiting just north of Daytona beach by late sunday night. So after the lake its still up in the air untill tomorrow. Anyways I gave my landfall spot. The ridge should hold strong into Saturday. Jeanne should gradually pick up some forward speed over the next 6-12 hrs and continue and turn more due west also in that time period. Hurricane watches should be posted I would feel as early as 11pm tonight to give alittle more time for the high population areas along the florida east coast.Oh btw landfall times around between 10pm saturday night and 4am sunday morning,,that could be revised."

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ivan III [Re: scottsvb]
      #30637 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:17 PM

Since Ivan seems to be a Miami Hurricane fan, there is a remote possibility of him going back into the GOM. The Hurricanes are currently whipping the University of Houston 31-13, at Reliant Stadium in Houston. If we can get the Miami team to stay in Houston for a week we may be able to put Ivan down for good. 0.02
This just in:RMK AF980 4609A Ivan OB 07 FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER OVER LAND. FREQUENT LIGHTNING

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2004 10:20 PM)


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sthorne
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Re: Crow Munching Forecast [Re: dani]
      #30638 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:18 PM

Saint Lucie was due to open again Sept. 27 after being closed since Sept. 2 due to damage to 3/4 of the schools in the county. Guess that will change now, hope the other 1/4 make it thorough.

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AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
Hurricane Preparedness Guide [Re: Fletch]
      #30639 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:19 PM

We're in the middle of the hurricane season. Any minute now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points.

(1) There is no need to panic.
(2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that "the big one" will hit us. Based on our insurance industry experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

STEP 1:
Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.

STEP 2:
Put these supplies into your car.

STEP 3:
Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.
Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida.

We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:

HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE
If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:

(1) It is reasonably well-built, and
(2) It is located in Wisconsin

Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an
insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss.

SHUTTERS
Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:
* Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap.
* Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.
* Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.
* Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.

* Hurricane Proofing your property: As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc.

You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately). Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.

EVACUATION ROUTE
If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area).

The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.

HURRICANE SUPPLIES
If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of cat food. In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:
* 23 flashlights: At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.
* Bleach: (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)
* A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)
* A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Andrew; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)
* $35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.

Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck, and remember: Its great living in Paradise.

--------------------
Lake Placid - 27.3N 81.3W


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #30640 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:19 PM

Stephanie Abrams will be in WPB tomorrow, so the good news is that JIm Cantore will be somewhere else. Farther north? Max Mayfield said watches for the Florida east coast tomorrow at 5 or 11 am.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30641 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:21 PM

yeah 36hours for watches , 24 for warnings. Personally I feel watches should be 48 hrs. Thats double the warning time which I feel is needed cause a watch is just that,,a watch. Anyways giving people 12 hours is kinda not much time.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #30642 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:21 PM

I now find myself rolling my mouse pointer off of Jim Cantores name expecting a pop up map with his route on it.

Mike, can you take care of that?

--------------------
Jim


Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 23 2004 10:23 PM)


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30643 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:22 PM

Just for some cute info, which no one in particular cares about:

1) According to the superintendent of Polk County schools, the Florida Department of Education has said "NO" to the idea of allowing schools to add minutes to the existing days to make up lost time. (This is per official media release by PCSB).

2) Polk (along with other districts) will only have to make up 6 days missed [so far] - 3 were excused on order of the Governor.

3) The FCAT test has been preliminarily postponed for 1 week to give school districts that lost time a chance to "catch up".

4) Yours truly wrote a letter to the Lakeland Ledger editors that was printed on Sept. 17, asking for the FCAT to be canceled, or at least to be made unofficial this year. Maybe someone in Tallahassee read it. :-) The ironic part is, I start teaching a new group of 110 students on Tuesday (Jeanne willing), in Grade 10 Algebra 1B - all FCAT students. (I didn't know that was my assignment until after the letter was sent in to the paper...)

Life goes on, doesn't it? Let's hope Jeanne rolls away north and then northeast, and goes to sleep with the fishes. (Which reminds me, my wife and I kept cracking up when Frances was about to come on shore, the professional met on Channel 8 - not Jerve, the other guy - kept saying "The east coast is going to get whacked". I was wondering how much of The Sopranos he was watching before he went on air....)

--------------------
Londovir


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Cantore on TWC now... [Re: Rasvar]
      #30644 - Thu Sep 23 2004 10:22 PM

Well I guess I better try Stephanie Abrams name!!

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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