AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Well it looks like with the movement and building of the ridge to the north and west of Jeanne a turn off the coast of Florida is all but eliminated. Now it will depend on how far south it builds and how long it stays there. I can see Jeanne tracking southwestward a bit as she approaches the coast due to that ridge. Also, the models have had a tough time forecasting the placement and strength of these highs all season. Undercalling them for the most part. Looks like this will be no different.
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Check the Surf
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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quick question.. if Jeanne stays on a west track thru Florida towards Tampa, do you forsee that our area will have winds higher than tropical force? Best I read right now, the most we might see over here is 75 mph winds no matter where she goes in. Is that about right based on the current forcast?
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Well, if it is my time for a storm then so be it! Here is the 18Z :
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_850_060m.gif
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Where did you get crow pie from, I've never heard that before? Anyway Jeanne looks very strong, the distinct eye with the very strong outflow band, Hugo had that feature. At least we have some agreement with the model's for the general path, as opposed to every model going to a different place. The strong shear forecasted to come about never did because the shear forecasted model was initialized with data which is having some problems this year but then again there's always next year. So the shear really won't have to much of an affect if any at all and will prob recurve before hitting Florida but does it really matter because you'll be in the ring of hurricane force winds so the damage is done.
Ivan's back from the dead and has some banding and eye features but not a very good . The convection is sparse and cloud cover is poor but still causing some very heavy rain. The steering current is collasping and will most likely pull down south after it hits into the Texas/La border but that I'm not to sure because the strength of the ridge is uncertain. That's about it folks; everyone has been doing an great job, keep it up!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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sunshinemamax2
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Kissimmee, FL
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Okay, I give in, I'll post. Been lurking since (completely fascinated by it since it did quite a number on our neighborhood and I hadn't seen a hurricane since Bob in '91 up in LI at the time) and as each storm forms and does it's strange thing this season I'm just watching in awe and coming back here day after day to read up on all of the fantastic posts.  I will probably continue to lurk, but considering it looks like we may be affected (yet again!) by Jeanne AND we're driving to TX for a wedding at the beginning of the week, I'm watching everything very closely right now & felt the need to post and give a thumbs up to everyone here.
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- 2005 Season ends on Emmeline's 1st birthday!
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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It looks like has come up a little more north and east of where it was suppose to. The approaching front may be having a slight effect on him but it won't be much as the high pressure behind it is quickly building in from what the local mets are saying. Now the high pressure is what is forecasted to start sending back to the SW in time.
Here is my question.
Is it possible that the high starts to push him back SW from the farther east location? If that were to happen than he would go maybe south of Galveston and back out into the water. I know it's a stupid question but I thought of it from just looking at the latest radar which looks like he is moving more north than forecasted.
By the way, he does look like he is actually building more storms around the center as he is getting further inland.
P.S.
Please be gentle in your response...lol
Edited by SoonerShawn (Thu Sep 23 2004 06:57 PM)
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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
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Gas lines are starting to get crowded. Banks were really lining up at drive thrus. Lot of people headed out to the turnpike and Home Depot as well. WalMart is just a mob scene here in Fort Pierce. I can't believe we are getting this again.
On another note, is it just wishful thinking on my part or does the GEOS satellite that shows the hurricane path look as though it's headed more NW than anything else? It certainly doesn't seem to be following the west forecast track.
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Tropicbird
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: near Homestead, FL
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OK, this storm seems a little more dicey for deep southern FL-the TV mets aren't as positive it's definently going N of us than they were with , especially since there seems this season to be a trend of highs building in stronger than the models predict. My question: is there any chance that this storm will bomb out and get stronger than a Cat 3? Not that a 3 is anything to sneeze at, but a 4 would be so much worse.
I tried ignoring Jeanne all week but she wouldn't go away...
PS. this board rules!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I just checked the water temps for Lake Okeechobee and it's in the low '80's. If Jeanne makes landfall and goes across Lake Okeechobee, the inland counties may get a bigger wallop than what we're looking at right now. I don't like that scenario at all. Not that I like any of them, but this one worries me more than the others.
You know what's weird about this whole thing? It's almost as if we've gotten used to being a target. I mean, how many hurricanes that land as a Cat III does it take to make it feel "normal"?
Also, talked to my brother's girlfriend who works at (she's a product manager for Notify!) and she said that she knows that someone from her area (internet services) is headed to Florida, and from she has learned in the last couple of weeks since she started there is that when one of those people go, it's a sure bet that an OCM is not far behind.... 
Wouldn't you hate to be Jeb Bush right now? Egads. This storm even took HIM by surprise, as the reporters were the ones that told him Jeanne was heading our way. So, where's his "weather guru", Ben Nelson? He wasn't giving Jeb a "heads up" on Jeanne? As The Donald would say,
"YOU'RE FIRED." 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Shawn...at this point, I wouldn't rule ANYTHING out. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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The 12Z UKMET, , and all match Phil's crow forecast unfortunately... The water vapor loop is fascinating, Jeanne hasn't quite been knocked south yet even as the ridge intensifies around her northern quadrant. Going to be quite a weekend :-/
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[witty phrase here]
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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When Phil's right, he's right bigtime...................and he wanted to be wrong as in this case more harm will come of this track.
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I just looked at the new model runs and they are not projecting that SW track anymore. They now have the front picking up and sending him NE. That actually seems more realistic than the SW track anyway.
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COgal
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
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Yes, I would have to agree with this. I can only take so much playing go fish with my daughter, getting mauled by the dogs and scratched up by the cats! It's amazing when you are bored you get on the floor and let the animals attack you! Was actually thinking about taking up drinking and smoking just so I could have something else to do besides play little kid games. Was thinking too that it might make it all the more interesting!  I could also not take having my hair and makeup done a dozen times in a 10 hour period. It took 3 days to get the rats out of my teased up hair. Also, I hate hurricanes because they make me "fat". After I bought all the supplies and goodies someone had to eat them when it was all said and done. I never ate so much chocolate in my life.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm gonna go out on a limb here (and I'll bring my crow with me) but I think at 11pm we will see an ohsosubtle shift to the west and south and exiting the state near Cedar Key.
I guess the only good thing I can say is that we haven't had a truckload of rain here lately. Anything to be positive, right?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Cathy
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Florida Native - Bartow (Polk ...
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How to measure experience:
"Category III" used to give me goose bumps - now I get cold chills up my spine & nausea!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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LOL...put the coffee cup down and back slowly away from the caffiene......... 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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This is getting ridiculous. I was so lucky with , , and . I wonder if Jeanne will be the one to change my real estate value? Its a logical thought hopefully not a prophetic one that those of us who escaped unscathed the last two times would be the ones to pay big time this time around. Those canes have a nasty way of making little pockets of major destruction away from the core of the storm....
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Allison
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Is it possible that the high starts to push him back SW from the farther east location? If that were to happen than he would go maybe south of Galveston and back out into the water. I know it's a stupid question but I thought of it from just looking at the latest radar which looks like he is moving more north than forecasted.
Good question... I'll take a shot at it.... (usual disclaimers apply)...
I think will still stay over land... If he keeps moving N/NW, he'll just get farther north into LA before the high moves him SW and into east Texas.
Quote:
By the way, he does look like he is actually building more storms around the center as he is getting further inland.
I noticed that too... I think it's because that part of the storm is still over water... It could also be additional energy coming off the ULL in the Bay of Campeche.
I wonder if that little sliver of dry-ish air to our west will keep most of 's rain away from the Houston area.... though we should still see rain from the front...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
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Allison
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Quote:
Wouldn't you hate to be Jeb Bush right now? Egads. This storm even took HIM by surprise, as the reporters were the ones that told him Jeanne was heading our way. So, where's his "weather guru", Ben Nelson? He wasn't giving Jeb a "heads up" on Jeanne? As The Donald would say,
"YOU'RE FIRED."
Colleen Thanks, I really needed that laugh. I can almost see his eyebrows shooting up in surprise.
I just got in from the grocery store, filling the gaps in the supplies, preparing, preparing. The Publix was a flippin nightmare! A "normal" Thursday night is never like this, not a basket left to use, it's bring your own from the parking lot and every check out lane was manned and running with people standing 4-6 deep in line. They are already almost out of ice, no dried milk to speak of and the chef boyardee shelf (kids will eat this cold! uk) is empty. The one buzz I heard from several guys from Patrick AFB was they were expecting a hit between them and the Cape. NASA has already sent folks home to take care of business and have begun to lock it down. The trucks have been picking up all the left over limbs and trees having been told to work until the sun goes down.
All of this "feel" like a hurricane is coming. (rolling eyes)
Hang on everyone, here we go again.
God Speed 
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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