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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2967
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
      #31111 - Fri Sep 24 2004 04:43 PM


Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen

Hurricane Warnings are now up for the same watch area as earlier for Jeanne, it appears Jeanne may skirt along the coast from south to north.



Now the strength... Jeanne has gotten better organized today and is poised to strengthen a bit. There is a chance that it will landfall as a category 3 storm. I already think it will be stronger than Frances at landfall, I'm just not sure how much so. NHC Forecaster Stacy Stewart mentions the fact that the sea surfance tempatures are 5 degrees cooler on the eastern side of the storm's eye than on the west edge of the eye as measured by the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. This is fairly significant as the water on the eastern edge has been upwelled from cooler, deeper waters by it meandering in that position previously. It has a greater chance to strengthen as it moves westward.

The track is dependant on a high off the Chesapeake and what happens to the ridge around it. The position of the ridge tomorrow is critical in determining how far west Jeanne will get.

Watches now are up north of that to Altamaha in Georgia. So a good section of coastal area may see hurricane force winds the next few days.

More to come shortly.

Event Related Links

You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
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Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
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Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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Some forecast models:
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DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MikeC]
      #31118 - Fri Sep 24 2004 04:52 PM

Thanks for the new thread...again

That 5:00 discussion will say it all...and guess who's writing it!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 24 2004 04:54 PM)


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: MikeC]
      #31120 - Fri Sep 24 2004 04:56 PM

***This issue has been resolved! Thanx so much for your advice and concern!***

Mods/Admin sorry to be off topic or in the wrong forum but it a bit urgent. My stepmom went out of town to a wedding leaving the handicap accessible car at the airport. I can't take my disabled dad anywhere in my truck so we're riding it out here. I need a generator for his medical equipment and I'm striking out everywhere, even the little shops. I'm desperate. From what I understand no one has had them for weeks.
I hadn't gotten one earlier because my sister has one and I figured we'd stay there as we did for Charley and Frances but I forgot that she'd have to leave the car at the airport. Any ideas? Again sorry for the off topic I'll be good today as opposed to last night.
Maybe any info should be PM'd to me so as not to clutter the board?

Thank you!

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



Edited by Shalafi (Fri Sep 24 2004 10:00 PM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: LI Phil]
      #31121 - Fri Sep 24 2004 04:56 PM

Well, one thing we can enjoy, safely, is the ULL sling-shotting Karl quickly to the north, and the ULL wrapping in behind him. That looks to be one strong extratropical system.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
ANYONE GOT A GENERATOR--IMPORTANT! [Re: Shalafi]
      #31122 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:00 PM

Mods/Admin sorry to be off topic or in the wrong forum but it a bit urgent. My stepmom went out of town to a wedding leaving the handicap accessible car at the airport. I can't take my disabled dad anywhere in my truck so we're riding it out here. I need a generator for his medical equipment and I'm striking out everywhere, even the little shops. I'm desperate. From what I understand no one has had them for weeks.

See the post above...urgent!!!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
5:00 Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #31123 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:04 PM

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt1.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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nandav1
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Shalafi]
      #31124 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:06 PM

Is there a Special Needs shelter you can contact? Or else contact your local Emergency management people..or even your local fire Dept.

You might also try the Deltona Hospital (can't remember it's name) or even Central Florida Regional in Sanford

(This isn't letting me log in.. I think I'm in a loop or something)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: 5:00 Discussion [Re: Ed in Va]
      #31126 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:09 PM

The 2 troubling things are, that it is starting to strengthen, and the farther west models are probably handling the high better. While I don't expect the track of the ETA to be "the one", it is worth paying attention to its details on the surrounding pattern. It is times like these I wish RAOBS were taken 4 times per day and fed into the models.
I expect the eye to become much better-defined tonight.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: 5:00 Discussion [Re: Ed in Va]
      #31127 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:09 PM

Hmmm...very interesting. Particularly this part:

Quote:

"The NOGAPS and GFDN models have been very consistent with this type of track the past 36 hours. This scenario is somewhat disconcerting because those are the only models that take the large high/ridge near the Delmarva southward to the Outer Banks of North Carolina before moving it to a position near Bermuda in 36 hours. The other models quickly weaken the high and move it southeastward. The exact location of the center of the high/ridge over the next 12-36 hours will determine how far west Jeanne will move before it begins to make the turn northward. Special 18Z upper-air data indicate the center the high has not weakened and has actually pushed southward and is now located just east of wallops islands in the southern Delmarva. This would suggest...at least in the short term...that the NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA solution is handling the steering pattern the best. As a result...no significant change was made to the previous forecast track."




--------------------
Check the Surf


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Mr. UnHappy
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Shalafi]
      #31128 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:09 PM

Brian, These guys had 'em when no one else did. Worth a call.


CALL US! (407) 834-2106 - Fax: (407) 834-4067
Outside of Florida: 1-800-249-5591

The UTTER GUYS - 10 Keyes Court - Sanford, FL 32773-6074


Really unhappy now that I'm in the bullseye.

Mr. U.


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: nandav1]
      #31129 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:10 PM

I'd have to actually get him to the special needs shelter which I can't do in my truck. He's had several strokes and his left side is pretty useless for moving and my truck is way too high for him to get in (he's over 350lbs). Then I doubt any shelter would have a bed he could use given his size.
Called emergency number and no one has any idea about who has generators, FEMA just says high call volume and disc the call. Strike on red cross as well.

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
NexSat [Re: Shalafi]
      #31130 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:15 PM

NexSat is a testbed program for the next generation of GOES satellite, using the Aqua-MODIS sensor (which is what will be on the new GOES)...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Shalafi]
      #31131 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:15 PM

There is a special needs shelter I believe at the Orange County County Convention Center. You maybe able to call the Orange County EOC, or possibly one in your area or a local hospital to assist. Generator supplies have not been replenished at the local home depots and Lowes

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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Mr. UnHappy]
      #31132 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:15 PM

Just called and they do have them, however I doubt I'll be able to sell a kidney to be able to afford them by the time Jeanne hits. I have no credit cards because I believe they are evil (not really I just have awful credit from my stupid teenage years). Thank you so much for the number I'm guessing this is going to be my story this cane....

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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LanceW
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Shalafi]
      #31133 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:16 PM

Repost from the other thread..

Anyone ever use http://www.nwhhc.com/ They seem to be on track lately (the last couple of storms). They do not agree with the official track. Also, looks like it sped up to 14 MPH...


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: Shalafi]
      #31134 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:17 PM

>>> Just called and they do have them, however I doubt I'll be able to sell a kidney to be able to afford them by the time Jeanne hits.

Can't you implore a friend or neighbor to help you out...from what I understand, you'll be reimbursed for the generator (in certain circumstances...yours sounds like it would qualify). Anyone? Anyone?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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RONJON
Unregistered




NHC 5 PM Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #31135 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:18 PM

Well..is anyone else having trouble following NHC's logic path on Jeannes track on the 5 PM. Seems like that the text supported my earlier thoughts on the NOGAPS (see Jeanne, evil sister of Frances) but then stated this..

Special 18Z upper-air data indicate the
center the high has not weakened and has actually pushed southward
and is now located just east of wallops islands in the southern
Delmarva. This would suggest...at least in the short term...that
the NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA solution is handling the steering pattern the
best. As a result...no significant change was made to the previous
forecast track.

Huh? is this confusing or what? their logic would suggest a westward shift, me thinks.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: NHC 5 PM Discussion [Re: RONJON]
      #31136 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:25 PM

That's my read, and on the other thread, I said I felt the GFS was still too far to the right, even with its westward shift this morning.
It seems that it takes the models almost until a day or two before landfall before they really start to latch onto things, and I have no reason to believe this is any different.
The 0z runs have a chance to show improvement as the system should be better defined, and I am guessing there will be more dropsonde data incorporated.


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eulogia
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: SW FL 26.57N 81.96W
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: LI Phil]
      #31137 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:25 PM

I can tell you for sure that FEMA will reimburse you for the generator. We were reimbursed (Hurricane Charley) and it is *not* based on financial need - at least as far as the generator reimbursement goes. Of course, the drawback is that you have to buy the thing in the first place.

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Dawn
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: St. Petersburg FL 27.81N 82.71W
Re: ANYONE GOT A GENERATOR--IMPORTANT! [Re: LI Phil]
      #31138 - Fri Sep 24 2004 05:26 PM

what is the max running watts and starting watts do you need. I work at Home Depot and will start calling all the stores within a 50 mile radius - Ilive in Pinellas Park - how far are you willing to go.
If I find one I will need to put on will-call - we will need to PM.
What is your max dollar amount or does that matter, last group of generators our store got ranged in the area of 499.00 to 1019.00.

Dawn


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