danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Richard, what I should have said was that I Have to be awake. And you don't. Except for washing and packing. And that's a great idea. Everyone wash ALL your clothes, power may be out for a while. If it doesn't go out then you don't have to worry about the clothes for a few days.
Richard, and Kathy you guys get a nap. I've got 3 hours and it's my turn.
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RobinS
Registered User
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Thank you so much for responding. I also wish no harm or loss to all. I will be passing on this site to everyone. Even though I have gone through and one can never be prepared enough mentally. This site with all of you have eased some anxiety as odd as that may sound. I guess it maybe a case of reading different views and having "hands-on" research is alittle more calming then watching tv with past hurricane damage horror. Thank you all. God Bless and Be Safe.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
ROBINS : I read your PM and decided to answer.
Skeetobite has some dynamite maps on here. Go to page One of this thread, and scroll down looking for this link.
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/
It will lead you to the most current map based on advisories. Be sure and check the Map Time. as Skeet can't stay up 24/7.
He will start doing street level maps sometime today, probably 11am.
The links to his map are ALWAYS on page One of each thread.
In answer to your question. Based on the 11pm advisory, and a rough estimate (Osceola County) Skeet's map track goes really close to you. Make absolutely sure you have everything you need.
You have probably heard the drill by now.
Water, water, water. Ice, ice, ice, food, batteries.
Put water in everything you have washer, sinks, tubs.
There were some really good hints on the thread before this.
"Hurricane Warnings Up for Florida City....."
Good luck and I hope none of you need it!
Thanks Danny, I also answered Robin's PM and I forgot to mention Skeeters maps. She is just south of my location so I think I probably got the picture right and answered accordingly. Keep up the good work my friend.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Sat Sep 25 2004 09:47 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Well they say two heads are better than one. And since you've been sleeping yours is better than mine right now.
Meanwhile changing of the Recon aircraft is taking place, so the bad news is no center updates for a couple of hours.
For you that need a nap, go get one. They can do satellite estimates, but I don't think they will do anything drastic, without a recon observation.
Recon is tasked with 12Z, 15Z and 18Z fixes, for this flight.
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 25 2004 09:57 AM)
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SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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Daniel and Richard,
I washed clothes last night....I filled my vehicles yesteday mornin! I have plenty of canned goods...have candles, flashlights and gas grill. But for some reason.......all that prep doesn't seem to make me feel OK. Jeanne isn't gonna be nice to US.
"stop the ride, I wanna get off"
If i make it through this cane season....I am moving outta FL
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I don't think you will be the only one moving after this season.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I have a theory: Only pay attention to the track (the middle line) when jeanne is at least 100 miles away from landfall. At this time I believe the charts are indicating Vero Beach area. But everyone north of central PB County will feel these hurricane winds-and there is the probability for a category 4.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Has anyone noticed the Upper level Low in the Central GOM?
It's been slowly gaining convection all night.
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Daniel and Richard,
I washed clothes last night....I filled my vehicles yesteday mornin! I have plenty of canned goods...have candles, flashlights and gas grill. But for some reason.......all that prep doesn't seem to make me feel OK. Jeanne isn't gonna be nice to US.
"stop the ride, I wanna get off"
If i make it through this cane season....I am moving outta FL
I understand your feelings well, but DON'T move. Florida is a nice place to live most of the time. This is a VERY unusual season and a historical, once a century type of season. It has been many many yeaars since we've had anything really bad more than a bunch of scares every year or so. Andrew,, and Donna and really damaging storms don't hit us all that often. Besides, most of the SE states have floods, the NE has blizzards, the West has droughts and tornados, the MidWest is tornado alley, the West has volcanos, the SouthWest has earthquakes, Alaska has long winters, volcanoos *and* earthquakes. Hawaai has Typhoons and tidal waves... Where are you going to go. Something will always put you at risk, at least Florida is nice 99.99% of the time....'[cept for the Yankees <grin>
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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From St. Lucie County,Kids wont be starting back to school from on Monday.
It is starting to look like this could be the big one. I still have a lot of prep to do here at my house this morning but have all we need and have practiced the routine. was a good dress rehearsal for what things could be like here tonite. Problem is a lot of tired stressed people and building that haven't even begun to recover yet. I fear the complacency of those who are to tired to run and have a feeling of made it through the last one and waiting to stick it out again.
The Cat three condition that are looking probable here tonite with possible Cat 4 are numbing. There arent a lot of folks who have that experience to relate to. I just hope they have watched the landfall reports from and and relize, yes things can get a lot worse than which spanked this area stronger than any other and left thousands with homes that are unlivable or compromised. Blue roofs abound every place you go. The rains from system between 1 and to have left the waters way, way up. I think all areas of the county got at least 4 inches minimum from that earlier in the week.
I will moniter site as much as I can today and nite but getting feeling won't have time to do much posting. Excuse my typing and spelling errors. Don't have time this morning to proof.
My best to all in the path and please let this be the last of the season for all of us.
Hurric
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Tally
Unregistered
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I see the convection, but doesn't it need a little "spin" for development?
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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He's right. Wherever to go, you are going to be at risk for some kind of natural disaster.
The NWS keeps moving the track more west. Jeanne has picked up speed, I believe there is still a chance that she may cross the penninsula into the GOM. Call me crazy.....:)
I understand your feelings well, but DON'T move. Florida is a nice place to live most of the time. This is a VERY unusual season and a historical, once a century type of season. It has been many many yeaars since we've had anything really bad more than a bunch of scares every year or so. Andrew,, and Donna and really damaging storms don't hit us all that often. Besides, most of the SE states have floods, the NE has blizzards, the West has droughts and tornados, the MidWest is tornado alley, the West has volcanos, the SouthWest has earthquakes, Alaska has long winters, volcanoos *and* earthquakes. Hawaai has Typhoons and tidal waves... Where are you going to go. Something will always put you at risk, at least Florida is nice 99.99% of the time....'[cept for the Yankees <grin>
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Just received this via email from Emergency Email.org:
HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES.
A DIRECT STRIKE ON SO. FL IS LIKELY.
AREAS AFFECTED.
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PALM BEACH.BROWARD.MIAMI-DADE.GLADES. HENDRY.COLLIER.& MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OF SO. FL.
WATCHES & WARNINGS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH.BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE METRO AREAS & LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GLADES.HENDRY.WESTERN PALM BEACH.& WESTERN BROWARD COUNTIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COLLIER & MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR INLAND COLLIER AND WESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The track is out for the 5 am:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Maybe someone with way more knowledge than me can answer this question. If jeanne is at 26.5, has increased its forward speed to 14mph, and in the last public advisory they say this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, than why is the huricane center showing that slight curve which takes it to 27.3 at landfall? 24 hours at 14 mph puts it further west by 236 miles and if the storm is 240 miles east of the southeast coast and is at 26.5...you see what I'm getting at? In a way, it kind of reminds me of Andrew in that they anticipated this northwesterly turn but the 's advisories kept saying "movement west and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours". and it kept moving west. I'm sure there is something that I'm just missing. That high seems awful strong though and I even saw the local channel 9 weather guy say that the model has been the most consistent with it's track for the last 48 hours and it is the most westerly of the models. I'm soooo tired of this crap this year!
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Tropicbird
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: near Homestead, FL
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Morning jolt-forecaster Beven saying Jeanne *could* go to Cat 4. Who needs coffee?
Looking at the infrared there seems to be an awful lot of strong convection to the S of the eye. Does this mean that the 'weak' side isn't going to be so weak this time? It's slowly dawning on me that conditions in extreme So Fla could be worse here than with , who didn't even knock out our power, particularily if she continues to ride along 26.5 rather than getting up to the forecast 27.3 or wherever.
Sorry for being so focused on my little corner of the world; I'm just trying to get an idea of what to expect down here. I can't even express how bad I feel for everybody along the coast to the north. Hang in there!
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Well, when is it turning? It is still at 26.5 with dead aim on Boynton Beach if it never turns. My pressure is already down to 29.68" and falling at a good clip. I'll check in from time to time, but only have a few more hours until the first bands and probable loss of power soon after. My weather station is up and running until I lose power. I have LI Phil's phone number and will call him with weather reports during the storm once I lose power. He will post them here. I hope everyone fairs well, but it looks like she could be a cat 3/cat 4 at landfall. Power may be out for weeks this time. Take care, Richie
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Quote:
Well, when is it turning? It is still at 26.5 with dead aim on Boynton Beach if it never turns. My pressure is already down to 29.68" and falling at a good clip. I'll check in from time to time, but only have a few more hours until the first bands and probable loss of power soon after. My weather station is up and running until I lose power. I have LI Phil's phone number and will call him with weather reports during the storm once I lose power. He will post them here. I hope everyone fairs well, but it looks like she could be a cat 3/cat 4 at landfall. Power may be out for weeks this time. Take care, Richie
Richie - take care and stay safe! I'm also praying for the turn!
Karen
Naples
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The guy on on one of the local Orlando stations (it might be channel 6), just stated that the UKMET has been the best for Jeanne. Then you have a guy on one of the other stations say that the has been the best.
Slight variations of a track of 5-8 degress will still have a big impact on exactly where this is going. Regardless, everyone near the forecast path should be making last minute urgent preparations. The weather is going to deteriorate fairly quickly.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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I am no expert by any means, but I have seen the same thing. The high is pretty strong, and I can't see the logic behind the NW turn. My gut feeling from looking at Jeanne with relationship to the high keep it on a westerly track. If anyone can explain why and how she will turn northwest and then north please explain. I think becuase she has picked up speed that the northerly and north westerly turn may not happen.
MaryAnn
Quote:
Maybe someone with way more knowledge than me can answer this question. If jeanne is at 26.5, has increased its forward speed to 14mph, and in the last public advisory they say this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, than why is the huricane center showing that slight curve which takes it to 27.3 at landfall? 24 hours at 14 mph puts it further west by 236 miles and if the storm is 240 miles east of the southeast coast and is at 26.5...you see what I'm getting at? In a way, it kind of reminds me of Andrew in that they anticipated this northwesterly turn but the 's advisories kept saying "movement west and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours". and it kept moving west. I'm sure there is something that I'm just missing. That high seems awful strong though and I even saw the local channel 9 weather guy say that the model has been the most consistent with it's track for the last 48 hours and it is the most westerly of the models. I'm soooo tired of this crap this year!
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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