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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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mom2als
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: Kissimmee, Fl
Re: News updates [Re: Floridacane]
      #31531 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:29 AM

Quote:

I don't see him staying there after tonight though. He is the "eye" man. I just hope I don't see him 1/2 mile from my house again. You've gotta love JC, but you just don't like seeing him near your house.




I thought that too, but remember he was in FWB during Ivan. I remember my stomach dropping when I saw him there since my other house is there.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: News updates [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31532 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:30 AM

Quote:

I almost fell out of my chair when I read that the hurricane force winds extend out 70 miles!!! So would that be 140 miles from the center or what? That's almost double what it was at 5pm.




Colleen, not exactly sure what you were referring to with the 140 miles, but yes it's gone from 45/150(hurr/t.s.) at 5pm to 70/205 at 11pm. She's gotten much larger very quickly that's for sure.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: News updates [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31533 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:32 AM

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST STARTING EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...AND THEN SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND WEST INTO THE INTERIOR.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES IN THE EVENING SATURDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE SURGE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS EXTREME NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ROUGH POUNDING SURF...RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION ARE ALREADY OCCURRING DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE.

RESIDENTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET DEPENDING ON THE LOCAL TIDE DURING LANDFALL. THE GREATEST SURGE WILL OCCUR AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING WHEN LOCAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR 4 FEET. THIS PLUS THE STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE A BEACH FRONT SURGE NEAR 10 FEET. THE STORM SURGE EFFECTS WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT THE DUNES ARE IN A HIGHLY WEAKENED STATE.
MANY BEACHFRONT PROPERTIES HAVE ALREADY SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND EROSION...MAKING THEM VERY VULNERABLE TO FURTHER DAMAGE.
INUNDATION OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONE BY SEA WATER IS POSSIBLE WITH SURGE AND WAVES BREACHING THE WEAKENED DUNES. NEAR SHORE ROADWAYS AND STRUCTURES ARE AT RISK. PROPERTIES AROUND INLETS AND ADJACENT CANALS WILL ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO INUNDATION AS WATER BACKS UP...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDES.

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 25 2004 01:35 AM)


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erauwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
You know it's bad when ...... [Re: AgentB]
      #31534 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:33 AM

When you are struggling to stay awake .... but is so close to 2am, you force yourself to stay up for that next advisory ... *yawn*

Edited by erauwx (Sat Sep 25 2004 01:34 AM)


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Breeezy
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 8
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: News updates [Re: AgentB]
      #31535 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:33 AM

I've been away from the computer.....so how is she looking and what is the latest track? Does anyone have any thoughts about how the Brooksville and Inverness areas will fare? :?:

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: News updates [Re: Ricreig]
      #31536 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:35 AM

Quote:

Quote:

I You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_

Or what about when your office co-workers are coming to you for updates,every update and calling you V.I.P.I.R.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: You know it's bad when ...... [Re: erauwx]
      #31537 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:36 AM

Quote:

When you are struggling to stay awake .... but is so close to 2am, you force yourself to stay up for that next advisory ... *yawn*




That's the truth.

Here's the website for the NDBC station at Settlement Point in the Bahamas. Jeanne will pass over, or very near, this spot.

Settlement Point(Bahamas)

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: News updates [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31538 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:36 AM

Jeanne pulling a Charley ? What does that mean ? Seems to me like landfall will take place somewhere between Jupiter and Melbourne .. Could be as far south as WPB., but I think she is at 26.5 and West Palm is at 27, so that means she doesnt have much wiggle room. Think we will see a more northward component later tommorow, once she crosses 77 or so.. Unless she picks up speed, which she could do..

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: News updates [Re: AgentB]
      #31539 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:39 AM

I just looked at those WV loops and I have a question: is that H that was keeping Jeanne on that Westward course lifting north a little bit or is that wishful thinking on my part? First I see it moving a little to the west, then I see something else coming down from the north.
Please, am I seeing things or what?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: News updates [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #31540 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:43 AM

Sorry, Toho...I meant intensity wise, not track wise. Charley went from a 1 to a 4 in 5 hours (or less). I was referring to her bombing out just before making landfall.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: News updates [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31541 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:46 AM

2AM update in. Forward speed increased to 14mph, windspeed at 105mph, pressure at 962mb.

What's up with all the loops? They stop about 4 frames from the end.

--------------------
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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: News updates [Re: danielw]
      #31542 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:47 AM

Melbourne NWS maps. No offense Skeet.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghls/hls_main.html
Surge Maps
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/atlas.html
Florida Evacuation and Shelter Maps
http://www.floridadisaster.org/

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 25 2004 01:50 AM)


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erauwx
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
2am advisory [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31543 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:48 AM

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 26.5 north...longitude 75.6 west or about 100
miles...160 km...east of Great Abaco Island in the northwestern
Bahamas. This is also about 270 miles...435 km...east of the
Southeast Florida coast.

Jeanne is now moving toward the west near 14 mph...23 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to
24 hours. On this track...the core of Jeanne will be moving across
the northwestern Bahamas later today.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph...170 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
24 hours...and Jeanne could become a major hurricane later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km...mainly to the northeast of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 962 mb...28.41 inches.



yay. i can go to sleep now ... considering setting my alarm for 5am .....


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: News updates [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31544 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:49 AM

OK.. I am not sure if it can bomb like Charley.. Guess it depends on forward speed, seems to be a little dry air still around her. Guess we will find out NHC is not good at intensity either.. I am also seeing what you mentioned in the wv loop. Not sure what that is, but it does look like the ridge is pulling up some, or it could be the interaction with Jeanne. I am no expert with these things, but I see what you see, if that helps.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: News updates [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #31545 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:53 AM

Colleen, I also saw what you were noting on the WV loop. I will say that I had seen something similar this afternoon, but Jeanne kept on chugging west. I'm more inclined to believe that it's due to Jeanne and the ridge's interaction, rather than the ridge pulling out. It still looks pretty strong to the west and north of her.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: News updates [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31546 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:53 AM

Winds do in fact extend up to 70 miles from the center.

Because we're dealing with a circle - that means...
(1/2 diameter or radius times pi = area)
20^2*pi = ~1250 sq mi area
35^2*pi = ~3850 sq mi area

Indeed - Colleen is wrong - it's not twice as large an area - it's more than three times the area...

Even though the windfield is not a perfect circle, the area is going to be most accurately represented by that good ol' fashion formula.

Pity I couldn't use HTML - then I'd be able to make that forumla look better

Up for water - off to bed now.

See you guys on the other side.

Bah - realized too late that colleen is further right...

revised though...

40^2*pi = ~5000 sq mi
70^2*pi = ~15000 sq mi

Still the same 3x increase - only a much larger area.

Edited by tpratch (Sat Sep 25 2004 01:59 AM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Satellite Loops [Re: AgentB]
      #31547 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:55 AM

I believe the satellites go down for a period of time during the night. Don't know for how long, or if they all go down, but I do know they go down and that's why the last few frames have nothing new on them.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Satellite Loops [Re: Colleen A.]
      #31548 - Sat Sep 25 2004 01:56 AM

Ah, probably due to the position of the satellite in relation to the Earth or some such nonsense

Looks like, according to this website, that there aren't any sats taking readings/footage of the east coast.

J-Track

--------------------
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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Satellite Loops [Re: AgentB]
      #31549 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:03 AM

They go down every night for what is called the "eclipse" which is caused by shut-down to conserve batteries during the night. Unfortunately this period is longer when near an equinox, which just happened. The period is between roughly 345Z and 645z (or 1145p EDT till 245 EDT).

Eclipse Schedule

*edited to add link to eclipse schedule

Edited by Domino (Sat Sep 25 2004 02:10 AM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Thanks! [Re: AgentB]
      #31550 - Sat Sep 25 2004 02:06 AM

Thank you for answering my question .... I had a feeling that's what it was, but I wanted to be sure and it's always better to get other people's input.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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