Anonymous
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dont give kuddos to anyone till landfall. If it does make landfall in florida then frank and some of ya are wrong and others are right about panhandle.
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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dont give me any kudos anyway.. thus far i've said sarasota, gone to the MS coast, then changed it to back up the middle. dont know about your country, but where i come from thats TERRIBLE guesscasting.
have to say that this 'close in development' business is really a pain. what we end up with is lots of weak systems that have erratic tracks.. going for the 4th landfalling system of the year and still not a hurricane in the mix. since the magic date is getting closer, here's another factoid about how weird things have been--no landfalling hurricanes in the u.s. since irene on 15october1999. that was a long time and a lot of storms ago. gabrielle last september 14 with the 980mb pressure makes the streak questionable... but from an 'official' standpoint, this lucky streak is becoming ludicrous.
HF 1528z13september
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Teresa
Unregistered
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Well, we are experienceing the first band of showers here in Mobile this am.
Southern
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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TPC centers the storm at 89.4W and says the turn to the North should happen anytime now. You can see the mid-level trof coming across central LA, so a LA landfall as west as the TS Warnings go (Grand Isle) is next to being out of the question. On the official track, Hanna will be making 2 landfalls - one across the LA Delta and the other just east of Pascagoula/Moss Point in Jackson County, MS.
For any of the LA wishcasters out there, it doesn't look like this trof will miss a connection with Hanna. That's probably a less than 5% chance, so don't get excited like I know you are.
Current Probabilities give the nod to Mobile @ 49%, Buras @ 62% and Gulfport @ 51%. New Orleans is at 43% which I'm thinking is high, and Pensacola is at 41%.
So as I've been saying  , this is a MS, AL, FL storm with the bulk of the heaviest convection likely to be from the MS/AL border over to Panama City.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/caribbean-ir.gif
That's a link to a high resolution IR picture out of CSU. Check out the BoC. Definitely looking much better organized than it has to date. Note the curved/banding/arcing shape of the clouds. This might be a SE TX weather maker early next week if it hangs around for a while. To me, it has the look of another future tropical storm.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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look at the visibles on that system in the bay of campeche...
its going inland.. but does look to be developing. its near 22/98, not too far east of tampico. low level inflow clouds look banded.
want another...? see that hooked low level signature near 24/58, moving west...? that is the wave that has been bursting convection for days NW of 99L. it is going under the amplification off the east coast.. tough for it that it has passed the old upper trough axis behind and all the convergence is east and behind it. still have to see what sets up ahead.. shear isnt too bad if it stays south, and as the old behind reconfigures the easterlies should come back. 99L is going to rocket by to the south next couple of days.. hard to say what this thing will do if it stays together.
HF 1556z13september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well my personal perdiction on landfall isnt final yet. I gave a swath from cedar key(which wont exactly happen) to pensacola in florida with a landfall close to Panama city. At first i did say watches might go up from tampa to there but almost none of us forcasters expect such a w turn. At first most of the models even said across central florida then been backing around to the w almost every run. Anyways with that said my intensity forcast is still on and still most of the moisture will be a Florida thing. Late last night the pressure went up slightly and pressures in the mid low to the ese went down. As the perdicted though the mid level low faded leaving the pressure low but keeping the original LLC intact. Infact with the mid level low fading out the LLC became more dominate and presures droped again to 1001mb. Forcast is a landfall near Mobile to Panama city. Most weather though will be to the east of there possible as far south as Tampa. Though Hanna will come onshore late tonight as I expected all along, more pops will be expected in Tampa far away from the center compared to Mobile only about 50 miles from the center. I expect breezy conditions near landfall with moderate bands moving onshore at landfall from Mobile east. But winds near TS strength will be e of there near Pensacola east to Panama city. Otherwise not much to say. System off the leewards still doesnt have a closed LLC and I dont expect it to over the next 24-36 hours.
scottsvb HURRICANEUPDATECENTER
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I've never predicted the MS coast in any of my posts as the targeted area... .. All I've stated during the past 12 hours or so is that I thought the system might have a more westerly component.... This was primarily based on certain models that I think have been performing somewhat accurate of late... If it hits the MS coast, then I was wrong in my initial targeted area... My targeted area has been, and still is the Pensacola and Florida panhandle area... that should be where most of the severe weather occurs... IMO
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=kmsy&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=VisibleSatelliteLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none
I put up the intellicast link because the Goes was repositioned in the last few frames. It appears to me that there is only a drift NW-NNW at this time. I have no idea what the time intervals are for intellicast's frames, so this may be just an hour or two's worth of movement. Still, I think the motion is now responding to the mid-level trof in East-Central LA - which btw, is starting to lift out. However, all airflow behind it is sweeping through, and with Hanna's at her current lattitude, there's still no way she misses the trof IMHO. Anyway, the turn north should be beginning. Had Hanna been 2 degrees further south, the next trof sweeping through would probably have picked her up anyway, but she may have had time to strengthen into something more substantial.
Btw, it was >>>>me<<<< who called for a MS landfall, but I may still be too far west. But like everyone else, I believe W FL gets the bulk of the precip. Speaking of that, there is a surge heading up toward Bay County area.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank
Unregistered
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Looking at the last couple of hours of vis sat loop appears to indicate that Hanna does not appear to moving very much at all, almost stationary... maybe this is the beginning of the big turn... who the heck knows... still not all that impressive overall but does have a tightly wrapped LLC...
Frank P.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Agree--the storm seems to be stationary again, wobbling a little perhaps, but no real movement. Convection is building toward the center fromt he se , less banding on the west at the same time.
Normally when a system pulls up stationary, it means a change is about to happen...we will see...the trof is not exerting as much pull as expected.
IHS,
Bill
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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how much of a surge?? I have been flip flopping about taking my boat out of the water.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA.
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Andy,
High Tide at the PC pass is around 4 am Sat morning....and it is a pretty high tide for this area...about 2 feet...we are gonna have a good fetch thru the pass opening today, so I'd expect High Tide to be about 3-4 above normal...I'd definatly loosen up the lines if you do decide to leave it in the water.
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Jason Kelley
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Thanks, I am gonna play chicken little and take it out. You can thank me for causing it to keep way west of here.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Last vis sat pix loop I looked at gave the impression of a POSSIBLE NNE or N wobble... starting to get delirious watching the loops... time for me to take a break... later gang...
Frank P
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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there is a lot of dry air to the west can this thing still fire up or get left it is realy bad here in pensacola but by the storm nice and sunny
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The storm is begining to wrap up while sitting stationary. Convection is moving closer to the center according to latest visible pics.
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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The slightest eastward drift is seen...about 3 mph....
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I see no movement at all. How long has she been sitting in the same spot? She does look to be wrapping up a little better. Joe B is still concerned about a period of very rapid intensification before landfall. The longer she sits, the better the chance of this coming to pass. I am still leaning toward a moderate TS, but could surprise us all and make minimal Hurricane
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