MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast is on the air from now (off and on) till whenever he loses power in Delray Beach-- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
Jim 's power is out, he may get back on with a generator so try later.
10:30PM
Looks like Jeanne is landfalling in Stuart / Port St. Lucie
Melbourne Radar Link for Jeanne
Jeanne ihas slowed a tad and now seems to want to begin the nrothernly movement, but not enough to save Ft. Pierce and Martin County with an eyewall hit. If the slowdown continues it may ride the coastline northward... It's going to be a long night.
7:30PM Update
Radar still has it moving due west into Martin St. Lucie Indian River counties toward just south of Fort Pierce.
6PM Update - Ed Dunham
Jeanne nudges a little more to the north. Landfall at Sebastian at 2am Sunday with winds of 125mph gusting to 150mph (Category III). Storm surge 8 to 9 feet.
Storm will be located 15 miles southwest of Melbourne at 4am - winds on the beaches and in Melbourne will peak out of the east southeast at 100mph gusting to 125mph (Category II). Storm will be located 25 miles southwest of Orlando at 10am with winds out of the southeast at 80mph gusting to 100mph.
Evacuation is no longer a safe option except to get to a nearby shelter in the next hour or two. If remaining at home, set up any emergency safe room - inside bathroom or walk-in closet - with battery operated radio, water, flashlights, snacks - as a place to ride out the high winds. This is a dangerous Category III storm - do not take it lightly - stay safe!
ED
Original Update Mike C
Hurricane Jeanne has continues its nearly due west motion, still on track,which continues what I think will likely be a Palm Beach or Martin County --- Indian River as well landfall. It's still strengthening so it will be a major system at landfall sometime overnight. It may have slowed just a hair, but with all the eye wobbles and the shape of the eye currently its hard to tell. West around 14 mph is the best guess.
NHC official forecast takes landfall near Vero Beach, by the way,.
Jeanne's latest recon has the pressure down to 950... still strengthening as the eyewall is adjusting itself. Another recon report should be out soon, and it is likely the windspeed will be higher.
The more northward turn may still happen before landfall, but the signs of it aren't there yet.
More to come soon.
Event Related Links
StormCarib reports from the Bahamas
You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Various Audio/Video Feeds from hurricane affected areas
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Mark Sudduth is doing video updates as he heads toward Vero to set up his reasearch team. Check on it here.
Hurricanetrack HIRT vehicle (camera, and more)
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Jeanne Radar Image
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, ,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Here are the current obs from my weather station near St. Petersburg, FL:
Wind: N gusting to 25mph
Pressure: 29.71in and falling
Rain: Trace
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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Next update in a few at 5?
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Discussion for 17:00 ET is out. Where is Skeet with his graphics? They are awesome.
The track has been updated:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
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I keep looking at the boatus.com website and wind you look at the windfield look at the eyewall fixes. the last several have a more northerly component. its definetely not heading due west....
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Thanks for posting that about boatus. I keep forgetting about that site.
Wind: 23 mph / 37 km/h from the North
Wind Gust: 36 mph / 57 km/h
Pressure: 29.47 in / 998 hPa and dropping
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Sadie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
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The 5pm dicussion referenced the SHIPS Inland Decay Model.......DSHIPS. Where can I find that?
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"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Avila still playing it real close to the vest...without actually saying so, I'm guessing that depending where Jeanne is in her , a Cat IV is possible...lets hope not.
Latest WV loop shows her looking to get her act together a bit...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Yeah the phrasing was that at this time they couldn't rule out a Cat 4. That's their way of saying prepare for one without the associated panic of saying "This will be a Cat 4 at landfall..."
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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It's gonna be close to one, either way. Wonder if my Thursday Call for landfall between Ft. Pierce & Cocoa Beach will bust...that's gonna be close too.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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A strong 3, most likely. Certainly nothing to put your guard down over.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Last image on that one looks like she hops to the west a bit, hard to tell, could be nothing.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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My 8-day old SE Florida part is true enough, although I had her getting here days ago as a "barely-holding-onto-life Cat 1" 
time for my 4 and twenty blackbirds baked in a pie! 
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cant log in
Unregistered
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Anybody remember back in July when the going topic was " WHERE'S THE WEATHER"?
Perhaps we should be more careful in what we ask for. 
TOM5R
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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You guys and your info just amaze me. Keep it coming. I am now a learning machine....
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Windspeed at landfall right now is forecast at 110 kts. That's 127 mph right?
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Here's my call from Thursday...let's see how bad it is:
Ok, here it is. Please keep in mind that I am not a met, so take this forecast with a grain of salt (which is how I like my crow).
Jeanne will continue on her westward trek towards the Bahamas and Florida for the next 36 hours or so, tracking across Great Abaco Island. During this time, she will strengthen from a CAT II to a CAT III, perhaps getting as strong as 130 mph sustained. After 36 hours, the ridge will be relaxed enough to permit a WNW, then NW turn. By 36 hours, Florida will begin to feel the first effects from Jeanne. This will be approximately 8 am on Saturday morning.
Jeanne will then take the NW trek towards Florida, landfalling somewhere between Ft. Pierce and Cocoa Beach as a CAT III (~125 MPH winds) Sunday morning between 8 and 12 noon. She will go inland, but will begin making a NNW turn while inland; Jeanne will maintain hurricane force winds throughout her trek up the coast line, during which time she will head north and then NNE and exit Florida near the FL/GA border...winds at this time will still be >74, still a minimal hurricane. She will not remain over Florida for more than four hours...
Once in the open Atlantic, Jeanne will increase in forward speed and regain CAT II status on a track that will take her towards the Outer Banks. She will landfall a second time near Cape Lookout with 100 MPH winds, just barely missing Cape Fear on her way. I would expect this to be midday on Monday. She will continue to hug the coast just offshore of the Delmarva and Cape May, NJ as a minimal hurricane. This should be by Monday evening. She will then take a more easterly trek and pass just south of Montauk Point Tuesday morning, still a CAT I, finally barely narrowly missing Cape Cod Tuesday night.
Florida may take quite a whallop as may the Outer Banks, but the main threat will be heavy rains in areas that don't need it, causing serious flooding, and gales all the way up the coast from Cape May through Cape Cod. Surge could be a problem for Florida, but not really a factor anywhere else, but high seas (15'+ waves in some places) will further erode beaches.
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Well, there you have it. My first "real" stab at a forecast. It's alot closer to me than I would like it, so that's why it will probably be wrong! I need some new crow recipies which I am sure to get with this one.
Everyone stay safe and pay close attention to the forecasts...they're the only ones to trust...all others should be taken in conjunction with the 's.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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Hey Phil--
You know any Zilnicki's on the island?
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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By comparison, here is Scottsvb's forecast, posted at approximately 3:00 on Thursday:
"First off you cant go by the exact points that the has listed as their track. For example many have noticed the 25.6N for the next 36 hours but we know most of the time storms will wobble along the axis. If I was the I would of gone 25.8 then 25.9 then keep it there a extra 6 hrs then move it up again another.1 or .2 even by 48hrs. So what Im saying it will be near 26.2N in 48hrs from now. Thing is over the last 12 hrs the mid level flow around the strong ridge still way off to the NW was losing its reach on Jeanne. Now with a light steering flow she wobbled to the wnw over the last few hours. She will though start to feel the ridge more as it moves southeast from Penns- the midatlantic states over the next 24hrs so this will change the current 280-285dg track back to a almost due west track of 270-275dg. Some of the models show this on the mid level flow pattern.
She will run over cooler SSTs this afternoon halting any intensification but later this evening into tonight she should start to strengthn slightly with the night time durational affects. It could be close to a Cat 3 by morning. After rolling thru the bahamas and very close to Nassau, By late Friday night into the morning Sat she should lose the due west course but its unsure of it will be truley WNW at 295dg or more 280-285 during the day Saturday. Anyways, none the less, a moderate strengthning affect should happen when she encounters the warm gulf stream waters. These waters were only partially affected by plus was a few weeks ago so the waters had time to recover up to 28-29c. Shear will begin though and could hamper any great intensification before landfall. Landfall is tough to pinpoint due to it being 66hrs out from now and the shape of the florida coastline. Right now as hard as it is Im going to say it will make landfall around 115-125mph from Pompano beach-Jupiter inlet. This is my 50mile swath for 3 days out or so. It could reach Lake Ockechobee or NE part causing extreme conditions near south bay, belle glade, and even Cleweston area around the lake. Jeanne should slowly weaken and head NW and even NNW into southern Polk county thru there on Sunday afternoon (abouts) to west of Orlando. It could then move N or even NNE coming up close to Jacksonville. Anyways really after it gets to Lake Ockechobee really all bets are off right now as that is just after 72 hrs out. IM not 100% sure it wont just go WNW to Sarasota then NW near Clearwater and up to the Panhandle or by the lake go NNW between Orlando and the Cape and exiting just north of Daytona beach by late sunday night. So after the lake its still up in the air untill tomorrow. Anyways I gave my landfall spot. The ridge should hold strong into Saturday. Jeanne should gradually pick up some forward speed over the next 6-12 hrs and continue and turn more due west also in that time period. Hurricane watches should be posted I would feel as early as 11pm tonight to give alittle more time for the high population areas along the florida east coast.Oh btw landfall times around between 10pm saturday night and 4am sunday morning,,that could be revised."
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
Last image on that one looks like she hops to the west a bit, hard to tell, could be nothing.
Jeanne is still heading just about due west, but a tad slower. Jeanne did wobble to the WNW between about noon and 2pm, but has been on a due west track ever since. The WNW turn is forecasted, and will not indicate a major track change when it happens later tonight or tomorrow morning.
It appears to me that Jeanne will landfall in almost exactly the same spot did.
Ronn
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