Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The wave about 300 miles east of the Windward Islands does bear watching. Here are my thoughts on the wave:
1. Development should be slow though tomorrow. The low pressure area (around 1012 mb) is still somewhat low in latitude. However, many waves with low pressure areas tend to lift further north as they approach South America.
2. Mark my words: There will be NO MAJOR HURRICANE in the Caribbean anytime this weekend or next. In fact, it is highly unlikely that this will be a hurricane at all in the Caribbean. Rather, I expect a moderate tropical storm to effect the Windward Islands, Puerto Rico (to some extent), and eventually Hispanola and Cuba by the middle of next week. This system will be beneficial to the islands as it will bring them much-needed rain.
In the long rong, thing become more complicated. Most of the more reliable (and believeable) model guidence takes this system west-northwest over Hispanola near the end of the forecast period. This appears to be believeable. However, what occurs after this will determine what happens after Hispanola. Here are a few thoughts (LONG, LONG way out. Take with a grain of salt.):
1. If this system moves through the Caribbean as a moderate tropical storm, any interaction with Hispanola would weaken it to a tropical depression. Another option is that the system goes between Cuba and Hispanola and little change in strength occurs. I am favoring the first solution at this time.
2. After this is when the major, major uncertainty sets in. I see two solutions occuring at this point.
A. System redevelops into a TS quickly after leaving Hispanola. A lowering of the heights north of the system causes a major slow-down of the system and possibly a slightly NW movement for a short time period. Some slow intensification occurs. After this, the trough pulls out, leaving the system behind. The ridge builds back in a the system speeds up, heading towards South Florida. Intensifies fairly rapidly. If this occurs, a fairly formidable storm could be moving over South Florida by late next week. This is A LONG, LONG, LONG, LONG way out and is speculation at this point.
2. System never makes it over Hispanola.
So, those are my long-term thoughts on this system. Anyhting beyond 48 or 72 hours is pure speculation. All in all, some slow development is likely this weekend. Bears watching, but I'm not too concerned at this point.
Kevin
Thoughts and comments needed
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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isnt going to affect puerto rico or hispaniola.. probably wont slow down enough to develop until it is near jamaica.. if then. system should move towards the yucatan, deepening, early next week.. then turn northwest and enter the gulf (whether it crosses cuba or the yucatan peninsula, no me entiendo). amplification of some sort will curve it up into the central or eastern gulf coast, maybe even peninsular florida.. probably friday or saturday next week. there ya go.
HF 0027z14september
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I was thinking about that possibility after I made the post, obviously should have included this. This thing isn't showing signs of development, thus, it shouldn't develop until it gets past the "hurricane graveyard"-the Eastern Caribbean. If it does go into the Gulf, well, I don't mean to hype it up but the Eastern GOMEX may have to deal with a major hurricane. Still a long ways off but definitely something to watch when it nears Jamaica, as you said.
Any thoughts on intensity? Been a while since we've had a good Eastern GOMEX storm.
Kevin 
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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intensity.. you usually wait for a storm to develop before worrying about such things. all i can give you is a canned climo answer.. if it stays weak it just goes west into central america. if it deepens, it would probably be due to some kind of ridging, which naturally implies upstream amplification.. so then it would have a northerly component. so.. if unlikely a weak system would threaten.. if it's coming it will probably be more than the recent flurry.. edouard, fay, gustav.. and now hanna.. of weaklings.
not being condescending, but there are natural limits to my willingness to speculate... not going to elaborate on something im not convinced will ever exist.
HF 0348z14september
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