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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL
      #32326 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:04 PM

AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE
LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF
STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
JEANNE WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE AT LANDFALL...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 120 MPH.

Note this was the exact same landfall coordinates of Hurricane Frances.

Note this is based on the NHC official track and assumes a northward jog. Variations may be large. The stronger side of the storm is the northern side.


Original Update
Jeanne's eyewall is on the coast tonight and moving inland near the Martin / St. Lucie County line. After landfall the northwestward turn is still projected to slowly occur as it crosses central Florida. We'll see when or if this materialized later.



Several extreme storm cells associated with the eyewall have already passed through the area of landfall and affected north Palm Beach county as well. Tomrorow will be very telling there. Much of the area is without power now.

Jeanne is making landfall as a category 3 storm, borderline, but category 3. The lateat recon and radar estimates support it, as well as some of the other gust reports and pressure readings.


Event Related Links

StormCarib reports from the Bahamas
You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Various Audio/Video Feeds from hurricane affected areas
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Mark Sudduth is doing video updates as he heads toward Vero to set up his reasearch team. Check on it here.
Hurricanetrack HIRT vehicle (camera, and more)

Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop

Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Jeanne Radar Image

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 400
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
the 11pm Discussion [Re: MikeC]
      #32337 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:13 PM

is lacking...
grrr.

what's up with the models versus reality
grrr

Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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LAgetaway
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32340 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:19 PM

just going through Ivan here in lower alabama i hope all fair well in flordia God Bless You all

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32341 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:19 PM

Looks like I'm re-employed...

Thanks to any and all who sent well wishes...but for now..

We got one nasty beatch a knockin' on heaven's door...

Richie-if you still have power...scratch that PM...gimme a shout...

I've had no dinner and no food since 2:00 pm, dog literally peed on the floor...

What do you guys need?

(I can't tell you what your winds will be in 20 hours on the panhandle) but I can give you shelter info, maps & Anything else and If I can't I'll die trying...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32342 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:20 PM

Hey all, fairly new poster here, but I gotta say this site is like an addiction once you find it- and it has been a great help. Ditto on the Phil issue- he's the man! As far as my prediction goes, here in Tampa, by USF, we are getting some decent small gusts, still have power, etc. I have been thinking it all day but afraid to say it- but I think Tampa is in for more than we bargained for this time. The westward track just seems to fast and straight to make that extreme turn- like a car making a quick right into the Mickey D's at 100mph (bad analogy I know). Either way, I feel that people here are NOT prepared for what might come- maybe they need to advertise this site on the news so people can get some real information and realize what exactly is happening, cuz so far I haven't hardly seen ANYTHING in the way of of people preparing like I did with the past three- no gas, food, battery, or plywood problems at all. Go figure. Please everyone stay safe and good luck!

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #32343 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:22 PM

No shelters opened in the Big Bend....yet.

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32344 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:23 PM

"It seems that the NHC is sticking to the bitter end with the northeast turn once it gets inland. But with the speed of Jeanne, wouldn't that make it harder to make that northerly turn and track it further into the GOM? The way this storm has been acting in the last 12 hours I have a gut feeling that Jeanne may become Ivanesque and track into the GOM and then head into Alabama and track near Atlanta ..."
---------------------------

If I'm not mistaken, latest NHC track does take Jeanne across Florida, very briefly into the Gulf near Cedar Key, with a turn to the north, then NE thru GA. Quick weakening after moving inland also! It can't weaken fast enough!

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32345 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:24 PM

Another thing- where is the 11pm NHC Map? Are they still pondering it? Also, we just got a gust here that was probably close to 35mph...it is coming.

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: RevUp]
      #32346 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:26 PM

I should have stated a sudden Northward to Northeast turn....But it seems that everyone is following the NHC forecast, although TWC seems to keep thinking that Jeanne will follow the far western track of the...Sorry, Phil......"cone of uncertianty"...

Also, CNN just reported that a car went off of a bridge into the Intercoastal waterway near Port St. Lucie, going to the barrier islands

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

Edited by Jeffmidtown (Sat Sep 25 2004 11:37 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32347 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:26 PM

Check Mike's original post for maps...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #32348 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:27 PM

Hey Phil, take a break. You got 15 minutes. LOL
The rest of us will answer, post and hold the Fort down.
We may not be as Good and Fast as You, but we can limp along til you get back.


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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL 28.23N 81.65W
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32349 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:29 PM

Davenport, FL...dead calm, humid...scary.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #32350 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:29 PM

Yeah, I gotta P!

Heres the discussion

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Humanriff]
      #32352 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:33 PM

Lakeland...pressures dropping and I know that because my ears are popping and my head feels like I have a vise around it.

Time for another aspirin.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #32353 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:33 PM

in Tampa, pressure keeps falling at about .02 in per hour. Occasional gusts only up to 33 mph, but sustained winds are increasing to near 20 mph from NNE.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32355 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:35 PM

Its coming allright! I tend to agree with your first post regarding tampa being in for a surprise, we shall see..

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Let's Try This Again [Re: RevUp]
      #32356 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:36 PM

Ok Gang, I was in the middle of writing the following when the new thread popped up...so my original post ended up in the old thread. I have cut and past in its entirety because I really want everyone [especially Phil :-)] to read:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>original post>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I will make one final statement regarding my earlier post about the football thread.
I never intended or meant any insult toward Phil (or anyone else for that matter) when I commented about the football posts. I greatly value this forum and the members that frequent here. I take a lot of what Phil and the others say and use the information in my daily life to plan for these unprecedented events that we have dealt with here in Florida. I was simply referring to repeated posts that were quotes upon quotes upon quotes of silly repetition regarding NFL teams.
I remember when one of this season's earlier storms (Charley or Frances??) was about to make landfall, all the moderators, even Mike C, were clamping down drastically on ANY off-topic post. They were very harsh and even resorted to locking out non-registered users to keep everyone controlled and on-topic. I just don't understand the difference tonight. I am now finding myself on the defensive for my comment which was apparently perceived as an attack on Phil. If that is how my comment was viewed, then I am truly sorry. While I have never met Phil in person, his great sense of humor and genuine concern for others comes through vividly in his posts. I would certainly never do or say anything to harm him.
Let's just forget I made the comment and get back to our discussions on Jeanne and her impact on Florida.

Hopefully there are no hard feelings by all....

--Lou


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32357 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:39 PM

Colleen, easy on the aspirin. If you can take non aspirin products and get the same relief, take them. Aspirin products reduce the normal clotting time for a cut or gash. In other words you might bleed a little longer. Under the circumstances, you might consider Non-aspirin products if you can take them. In case you get a cut or something. Just my 0.02

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: the 11pm Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #32358 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:40 PM

Phil, just like you said earlier ... from the NHC discus .... "THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN PREVENTING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE."
-----------------
this just in from Tampa TV Ch. 8 ... Pinellas Co. EOC just announced a mandatory evac for mobile homes.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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AmoryBl
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: recmod]
      #32359 - Sat Sep 25 2004 11:41 PM

It's very calm right now in Mulberry. I don't know what to expect. Our local MET says it should be south of the NHC forecast. Anyone else see this?

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