MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE
LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF
STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
JEANNE WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE AT LANDFALL...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 120 MPH.
Note this was the exact same landfall coordinates of Hurricane .
Note this is based on the official track and assumes a northward jog. Variations may be large. The stronger side of the storm is the northern side.
Original Update
Jeanne's eyewall is on the coast tonight and moving inland near the Martin / St. Lucie County line. After landfall the northwestward turn is still projected to slowly occur as it crosses central Florida. We'll see when or if this materialized later.
Several extreme storm cells associated with the eyewall have already passed through the area of landfall and affected north Palm Beach county as well. Tomrorow will be very telling there. Much of the area is without power now.
Jeanne is making landfall as a category 3 storm, borderline, but category 3. The lateat recon and radar estimates support it, as well as some of the other gust reports and pressure readings.
Event Related Links
StormCarib reports from the Bahamas
You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Various Audio/Video Feeds from hurricane affected areas
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Mark Sudduth is doing video updates as he heads toward Vero to set up his reasearch team. Check on it here.
Hurricanetrack HIRT vehicle (camera, and more)
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Jeanne Radar Image
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, ,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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is lacking...
grrr.
what's up with the models versus reality
grrr
Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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LAgetaway
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
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just going through here in lower alabama i hope all fair well in flordia God Bless You all
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Looks like I'm re-employed...
Thanks to any and all who sent well wishes...but for now..
We got one nasty beatch a knockin' on heaven's door...
Richie-if you still have power...scratch that PM...gimme a shout...
I've had no dinner and no food since 2:00 pm, dog literally peed on the floor...
What do you guys need?
(I can't tell you what your winds will be in 20 hours on the panhandle) but I can give you shelter info, maps & Anything else and If I can't I'll die trying...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Hey all, fairly new poster here, but I gotta say this site is like an addiction once you find it- and it has been a great help. Ditto on the Phil issue- he's the man! As far as my prediction goes, here in Tampa, by USF, we are getting some decent small gusts, still have power, etc. I have been thinking it all day but afraid to say it- but I think Tampa is in for more than we bargained for this time. The westward track just seems to fast and straight to make that extreme turn- like a car making a quick right into the Mickey D's at 100mph (bad analogy I know). Either way, I feel that people here are NOT prepared for what might come- maybe they need to advertise this site on the news so people can get some real information and realize what exactly is happening, cuz so far I haven't hardly seen ANYTHING in the way of of people preparing like I did with the past three- no gas, food, battery, or plywood problems at all. Go figure. Please everyone stay safe and good luck!
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J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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No shelters opened in the Big Bend....yet.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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"It seems that the is sticking to the bitter end with the northeast turn once it gets inland. But with the speed of Jeanne, wouldn't that make it harder to make that northerly turn and track it further into the GOM? The way this storm has been acting in the last 12 hours I have a gut feeling that Jeanne may become esque and track into the GOM and then head into Alabama and track near Atlanta ..."
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If I'm not mistaken, latest track does take Jeanne across Florida, very briefly into the Gulf near Cedar Key, with a turn to the north, then NE thru GA. Quick weakening after moving inland also! It can't weaken fast enough!
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Another thing- where is the 11pm Map? Are they still pondering it? Also, we just got a gust here that was probably close to 35mph...it is coming.
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J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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I should have stated a sudden Northward to Northeast turn....But it seems that everyone is following the forecast, although seems to keep thinking that Jeanne will follow the far western track of the...Sorry, Phil......"cone of uncertianty"...
Also, CNN just reported that a car went off of a bridge into the Intercoastal waterway near Port St. Lucie, going to the barrier islands
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
Edited by Jeffmidtown (Sat Sep 25 2004 11:37 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Check Mike's original post for maps...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Hey Phil, take a break. You got 15 minutes. LOL
The rest of us will answer, post and hold the Fort down.
We may not be as Good and Fast as You, but we can limp along til you get back.
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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL
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Davenport, FL...dead calm, humid...scary.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yeah, I gotta P!
Heres the discussion
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Lakeland...pressures dropping and I know that because my ears are popping and my head feels like I have a vise around it.
Time for another aspirin.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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in Tampa, pressure keeps falling at about .02 in per hour. Occasional gusts only up to 33 mph, but sustained winds are increasing to near 20 mph from NNE.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Its coming allright! I tend to agree with your first post regarding tampa being in for a surprise, we shall see..
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ok Gang, I was in the middle of writing the following when the new thread popped up...so my original post ended up in the old thread. I have cut and past in its entirety because I really want everyone [especially Phil :-)] to read:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>original post>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I will make one final statement regarding my earlier post about the football thread.
I never intended or meant any insult toward Phil (or anyone else for that matter) when I commented about the football posts. I greatly value this forum and the members that frequent here. I take a lot of what Phil and the others say and use the information in my daily life to plan for these unprecedented events that we have dealt with here in Florida. I was simply referring to repeated posts that were quotes upon quotes upon quotes of silly repetition regarding NFL teams.
I remember when one of this season's earlier storms (Charley or ??) was about to make landfall, all the moderators, even Mike C, were clamping down drastically on ANY off-topic post. They were very harsh and even resorted to locking out non-registered users to keep everyone controlled and on-topic. I just don't understand the difference tonight. I am now finding myself on the defensive for my comment which was apparently perceived as an attack on Phil. If that is how my comment was viewed, then I am truly sorry. While I have never met Phil in person, his great sense of humor and genuine concern for others comes through vividly in his posts. I would certainly never do or say anything to harm him.
Let's just forget I made the comment and get back to our discussions on Jeanne and her impact on Florida.
Hopefully there are no hard feelings by all....
--Lou
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Colleen, easy on the aspirin. If you can take non aspirin products and get the same relief, take them. Aspirin products reduce the normal clotting time for a cut or gash. In other words you might bleed a little longer. Under the circumstances, you might consider Non-aspirin products if you can take them. In case you get a cut or something. Just my 0.02
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Phil, just like you said earlier ... from the discus .... "THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN PREVENTING ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE."
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this just in from Tampa TV Ch. 8 ... Pinellas Co. EOC just announced a mandatory evac for mobile homes.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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AmoryBl
Unregistered
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It's very calm right now in Mulberry. I don't know what to expect. Our local MET says it should be south of the forecast. Anyone else see this?
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