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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: scottsvb]
      #32520 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:25 AM

the wind is horrible here in st cloud, rain and i have the tv turned up so i dont hear the wind. any news of the turn yet?

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Seele
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Windfield Map [Re: danielw]
      #32521 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:28 AM

Yeah, I noticed that. It supprised me and makes me worry even more for those in it's path. If you take a look at their landfall map of Ivan, it shows that Jeanne was more powerful at landfall. I'm not sure of how they are calculating this, but if you look sequence over the last 2 days, it seems to match the vortex messages.

I don't have a timeline of the votex messages, but I believe Jeanne was upgraded to Cat 3 before or around 1630Z to 1930Z on the 25th. If you look at that map the Cat 3 winds were localized in pockets of the NW and NE quads. Since that point, the pressure significantly dropped, but we were not seeing a corresponding increase in wind speed.

I'm not even close to educated enough to guess why they show such a rapid intesifiication between 130Z and 300Z(landfall) today. My speculation would be that the wind speeds finally caught up with the pressure drop, possibly some influence from the gulf stream. The eyewall did look like it became much better organized right before landfall and it also seemed to contract which would also cause a windspeed increase.

If you notice in the 300Z map, there are concentric eyewalls. Would the winds increase this dramatically outside the outter eyewall before the inner eyewall collapsed?


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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: scottsvb]
      #32522 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:28 AM

Having a college kid in Sarasota, I'm concerned about this due west movement. Will Jeanne wait till the Gulf to make that northward turn?

I should have gone to bed hours ago (tomorrow's going to be the busiest time for those of us in Volusia, if Jeanne stays on track), but I've stayed up, watching for any hint of the turn.

Mom's tend to freak if there's any potential threat to their kids and I NEED to know, to get some kind of a grip on this question, before I can sleep.

Any thoughts?


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Ouch [Re: danielw]
      #32523 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:29 AM

Quote:

WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTH TO LEVY COUNTY AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH.




Ouch - just what we needed to hear.. ughh..


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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL 28.64N 81.18W
no [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32524 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:34 AM

still no rain here in seminole county

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32525 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:37 AM

I hate to be the first one to post this, and I might be way off base, but it looks to me like Jeanne has matured back to a fully west movement: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radmlb.html

Even possible she might be moving somewhat south of due west. Or, am I looking at eye wall shrinkage that seems to be indicating a west movement?

I also noticed the latest UKMet run has Jeanne exiting into the GOM around Bradenton.


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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL 28.23N 81.65W
Re: How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32526 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:40 AM

Quote:

Mom's tend to freak if there's any potential threat to their kids and I NEED to know, to get some kind of a grip on this question, before I can sleep.

Any thoughts?




Yeah, I feel like a real dumbass right now. My kids live in Daytona and I INSISTED that my daughter come over and ride it out with us. My son is worried about a retention pond that is about 2 vertical feet from their apartment. Now that the wind is starting to scream here I think he may be better off.... I don't have any answer to your question, but I know where you're coming from.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32527 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:40 AM

No, I wouldn't think the wind would increase un til the cycle was complete and the eye had contracted. Some of the mets on the board could probably answer that better.
Susie and others. I have been looping the Miami radar, and at this time I can't see Anything but West. The eye is still elliptical, and that add some difficulty to identifying a move.
Here's a link for you. Use the range circle and county lines for judgement. The 0.5 loop at the top is the best.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?AMX

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 26 2004 02:44 AM)


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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: How long will Jeanne Go West? [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32528 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:40 AM

looks on a strong westward track to me too

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cmdebbie
Unregistered




Re: no [Re: vvvteddybearvvv]
      #32529 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:41 AM

We are just beginning to get some heavy rain here in Oviedo (Seminole County) & very strong gusts! So watch out in Winter Springs, it is headed your way. The rain has already began to enter my home through the glass in the front door.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Ouch [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32530 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:41 AM

Its over about the turn. I mean nothing to really talk about on that except for the Tampa people or maybe Orlando. She will bend to the north but like I said,, BEND. If she does continue on her current path for the next 3-4 hrs then she might make it into the gulf thru Tampa- just north of Clearwater. Thing is,,will she be 70mph or still a hurricane by the time she would enter the gulf????? Well if she does, she will gain some strength, although not much but enough to change TS warnings to Hurricane warnings up to Apolachiacola. As off 11pm I would of had the Hurricane watches changed to warnings from Tampabay N to Cedar key cause they could get winds of hurricane force sustained for 2-6hrs. The warnings for places like Broward county we KNEW wont get sustained 74mph or more but they were issued anyways. So why not the west coast where also the upper air data, water vapor loop and model trends with the GFDL and Ships showing winds along the west coast of florida in the mentioned area of 65kts or more........................

Edited by scottsvb (Sun Sep 26 2004 02:58 AM)


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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL 28.64N 81.18W
Re: no [Re: cmdebbie]
      #32531 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:43 AM

alllright thanks

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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: no [Re: vvvteddybearvvv]
      #32532 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:45 AM

really really horrible here in st cloud

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32533 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:46 AM

yeah - I am starting to put some stock in you Scott.. latest radar loops show west movement, if not a tad south of west. Like you, I think Tampa will be issuing hurricane watch/warnings at 4 am for the west coast (Sarasota & north) and then watch all heck break loose because they didn't do it earlier. Pinellas County only has 3 shelters open in the county right now and by 4 am, we might already have 45 mph winds when they shut down some bridges. What a mess.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32534 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:46 AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

* UNTIL 330 AM EDT

* AT 230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ROTATION WITH WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF
HURRICANE JEANNE ACROSS INDIAN RIVER COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
INCLUDE ...VERO BEACH...BLUE CYPRESS LAKE...GIFFORD...INDIAN RIVER
SHORES...AND VERO LAKE ESTATES.


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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.95W
Latest from Cape Coral [Re: danielw]
      #32535 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:51 AM

Latest barometric pressure is 29.33, winds 30-35 MPH, gusting to 47...
Track still looks due west to me..

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Bocajeff
Unregistered




Re: Ouch [Re: danielw]
      #32536 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:54 AM

Quote:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

* UNTIL 330 AM EDT

* AT 230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ROTATION WITH WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF
HURRICANE JEANNE ACROSS INDIAN RIVER COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
INCLUDE ...VERO BEACH...BLUE CYPRESS LAKE...GIFFORD...INDIAN RIVER
SHORES...AND VERO LAKE ESTATES.




Port Charlotte is getting hammered again. Don't know the exact wind strength, but guess gusts to 50. My stove vent starts to scream with the gusts. What sucks is the wind is coming in from the North, Like Charley Did. So the half of my roof that is tar papered and FEMA tarped is getting hammered! If we get a direct hit with this West Movement, there will be Blue tarps all over the damn place!


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32537 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:57 AM

Scott,

Do you live in the Big Bend area?
I've had a bad feeling about this storm going unto the GOM and coming up to St Marks or around there. Any othre ideas?


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ouch [Re: danielw]
      #32538 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:59 AM

you can see that the wildest winds are still in the NE quadrant of the storm in this looping radar with vortexes can be fully believed: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/...mp;zoommode=pan


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Ouch [Re: mud1967]
      #32539 - Sun Sep 26 2004 02:59 AM

No, just NE of Tampa by 20 miles or less.

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