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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32540 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:01 AM

Any where near San Antonio or Wesley Chapel?

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ouch [Re: scottsvb]
      #32541 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:03 AM

coming right at you Scott:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/...mp;zoommode=pan


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Time and Track [Re: danielw]
      #32542 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:05 AM

I mapped out 2 possible tracks.
1. from the North end of Lake Okechobee, to Sarasota.
around 106miles. At 12mph thats 9 hours.

2. from the North end of Lake Okeechobee, to Tampa Bay.
around 122miles. At 12mph thats 10 hours.

These Are NOT forecast tracks, they are merely to give you an Idea of how long before it arrives at 2 possible areas.
I hope it helps you.


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d0sitmatr
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: mud1967]
      #32543 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:14 AM

first off, hello all, my g/f showed me this site during Ivans dreadful track, so Ive only been lurking for s short time now, but I wanted you all to know how much I appreciate all the great up2date information you provide.

now, to reply about the power issues, while I do not have any #'s, I do have 1 thing to add.
FPL had a $250 million emergancy fund for repairs.
they tapped that last week with Ivan, they are now having to pull on credit lines (they have $1 bilion in available credit lines)
with Govorner Bush also promising to do everything he cna to help.

I also wished to add that in Naples the winds are currently 35mph gusting to 50 with a steady rainfall for the past hour.

[edit] my typing skills... are in sore need of a refresher...

Edited by d0sitmatr (Sun Sep 26 2004 03:15 AM)


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Time and Track [Re: danielw]
      #32544 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:14 AM

Didn't NHC say that there would be a 3am advisory

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BocaJeff
Unregistered




Move North Finally?! [Re: mud1967]
      #32545 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:18 AM

Last Image in loop shows jump to the North.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL 28.23N 81.65W
Re: Time and Track [Re: mud1967]
      #32546 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:25 AM

Davenport, Polk County. This is the last post out of me. Power has gone off 3 times in the last 10 minutes. We are in a lull right now but I think the next blow is going to knock us on our butts. Hopefully have power tomorrow. See you on the backside. Godspeed to Jeanne, get the he11 out of my neighborhood....

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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
Re: Time and Track [Re: mud1967]
      #32547 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:26 AM

Looks like it's finally starting to move a bit to the north. Here's something from the 3 a.m. advisory:

AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF
OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERO
BEACH FLORIDA.

JEANNE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Time and Track [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32548 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:29 AM

near NEW TAMPA. Bruce.B DOWNS area. Im off for the night....be safe all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Move North Finally?! [Re: BocaJeff]
      #32549 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:30 AM

That loop does show a jump, and a little bit of a northward move.
The jump in positions is due to satellite's eclipse with the sun, and the satellites being turned off for 3 hours. If you will check the times on the frames you should see roughly 3 hours difference between the last 2 frames.
A few posts above, there is a link to the SFWMD, with an outstanding radar picture. Allow it to load and loop. You can see that almost all of the movement is due West.


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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
Re: Time and Track [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32550 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:30 AM

Thank you to everyone who posted links for me and otherwise provided both information and support to a freaking-out mom. I think I'll take this northward movement as a sign that Sarasota (and my college kid) won't take a direct hit. Now maybe I can get some sleep before it starts getting bad here in Volusia. Goodnight. Stay safe everyone.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 399
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Sleep, or lack thereof [Re: Ormond Suzie]
      #32551 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:39 AM

I'm probably going to try to take a 2 - 3 hour nap... and keep an eye on things... I'm not buying the northern movement at this point. if anything it might be doing a stairstep... but will it be enough to push it north of clearwater?

Keeping my fingers crossed...
so far we've had wind ... gusting to 30 or so... but nothing too severe yet, a few small branches down... I have sandbagged the back door to the house, and have sandbags for the garage if things start to ge leaky... but... I'm still a bit... worried...

I'm checking to see if any of my left coast friends are on and can give me a call to wake me up...

good luck all!
Mark


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: scottsvb]
      #32552 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:49 AM

That was one of two scenarios I put out; the other being the move inland then turn. I originally thought the former was more likely, then changed to the latter. Just not *this* much to the west....so it's still a no go on the forecast verification.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
From Arcadia [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32553 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:49 AM

Can't believe I still have power. Lot's of howling and thudding. Eye is heading straight for us (again). Next 2 hours should be the worst. If Jeanne could start that turn it would be greatly appreciated. Know Highlands and Glades are getting slammed. My prayers go up for all.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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Bev
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
Re: Sleep, or lack thereof [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32554 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:51 AM

Is anybody up? I'm getting spooked. Wind is starting to gust pretty good here. Little one asleep peacefully upstairs. Me peeking through plywood and worrying.

Question: I'm directly on Palma Sola Bay in Bradenton, 2 feet above sea level. We are just south of Tampa/St. Pete. Our high tide is at noon tomorrow. Does anyone know or have an educated guess on how much storm surge we can expect here? Should I be moving things upstairs?

Thanks to all and thanks for the kind words from all of you who have been so supportive.

Hugging my chair to keep from being blown into the Den.

-Bev

>> Hurricane Magnet <<


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Bev
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
Re: From Arcadia [Re: Sadie]
      #32555 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:54 AM

Quote:

Can't believe I still have power. Lot's of howling and thudding. Eye is heading straight for us (again).

God Bless you Sadie. I was at my parents home at 1002 N. Lee Ave. in Arcadia for Charley and I know exactly how horribly Arcadia has been affected by the 'canes this year.

I sure hope you fare better during this one.

Best Regards,
Bev

>> Hurricane Magnet <<

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Sadie
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
Re: Sleep, or lack thereof [Re: Bev]
      #32556 - Sun Sep 26 2004 03:54 AM

WINK TV just reported a bouy in Lake OK recorded wind speed 100mph.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


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tones321
Unregistered




In Clearwater... [Re: Sadie]
      #32557 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:00 AM

Well, I'd say winds are gusting 40-50 mph here now. No rain yet... I keep watching radar loops over and over and using photoshop to overlay them on the NHC track. It definitely looks like Jeanne is going to make the turn a lot further west than anticipated. I'm wondering what we're actually going to get here in Clearwater....

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tones321
Unregistered




Re: In Clearwater... [Re: tones321]
      #32558 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:04 AM

oh, and is it just me or is there not much for outer rain bands with this hurricane? Seems like its large but very compact rain-wise. We've had maybe one squall line all day in Clearwater.

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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
From East Orange County [Re: Sadie]
      #32559 - Sun Sep 26 2004 04:04 AM

Well, I was able to get about a 3 hour nap. The stuff is hitting the fan here now. The rain is sideways and it's really just getting started for us. This metal roof sounds like it's going to blow off. I don't know how accurate the WeatherBug thing is, but here it is:

Discovery MS
Orlando, FL
Elevation: 106ft
Click here to visit the website for this station
Data as of: 3:57 AM 9/26/2004
Current Conditions
Temperature: 72.5F Pressure: 29.34"
Average Wind: 21mph ENE
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 70F Heat Index: 77F Monthly Rain: 5.12"

So Far Today
High: 79F Rain: 0.59" Rain Rate: 0.64"/h
Low: 72 F Gusts: 55mph ENE

--------------------
Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"


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