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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: danielw]
      #32400 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:20 AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1158 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
* UNTIL 100 AM EDT
* AT 1151 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FOR THE ONSET OF EXTREME HURRICANE WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER CORE OF HURRICANE JEANNE AS THE CENTER MOVES ONSHORE SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.

* WINDS TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE FLORIDANA BEACH...BAREFOOT BAY...
MALABAR...GRANT...VALKARIA...PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...MELBOURNE BEACH...INDIALANTIC...INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH...AND SATELLITE BEACH.

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 26 2004 12:23 AM)


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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: LI Phil]
      #32401 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:21 AM

Phil,

Any news from Richie? Last PM I got from him was @ 21:59 and his site stopped reporting @ 22:00. Hopefully he just lost power.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: USFTampa]
      #32402 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:21 AM

Was that ABC Met Dennis Phillips by chance? This wouldn't be the frst time

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: tenavilla]
      #32403 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:22 AM

That Dennis guy is just not my favorite dude- I mean, 45 minutes ago he said that Tampa wasn't even going to get much more than 35mph winds, now he is putting it over us- he is just too matter-of-fact for a met. Just my P.O. Again, Page 3 for anyone who missed it.

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Official Cat 3 at landfall [Re: danielw]
      #32404 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:23 AM

In case anyone had any doubts..............

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE
LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF
STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
JEANNE WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE AT LANDFALL...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 120 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: tenavilla]
      #32405 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:23 AM

Yes, that would be Denis Phillips. He's good. The mets here have been saying that even though the NHC kept insisting it was going WNW that it WAS NOT. And they were right.
If you want to see some really cool imagery, check out Steve Jerve and Jen Hill (I think that's her last name) on Channel 8. They have the VIPIR models, and it explains a whole lot more than the the OCM can at the Weather Channel. All they do is POINT at the STUPID CONE and say "this is the general direction........." Even AFTER it makes landfall. Sheesh.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: viking]
      #32406 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:23 AM

Landfall is on the south end of Huch island. I cant remember the spelling and I use to live in Pt.St.Lucie.. Anyways my target for Jupiter was only 10 miles off ,, within the 25mile zone I give and well within the 100 miles for a 3 day forecast the NHC gives that I gave out. Still she will move across on a just north of west motion for the next 3-6hrs then bend more to the wnw by morning into the afternoon and then wobble NW to the west of Lakeland by noon. Winds will be down to Tropical storm strength by the time she gets north of I-4. Rains up to 10inches near the center and by the east and west coasts. Many spawned tornados.
On a side note, not many strong feeder bands came across the western half of the state today as dry air in the mid levels cut off any reaching ability of Jeanne. Over the keys currently there a very strong band where the mid levels are not as dry. Anyways the dry air will be push out into the gulf overnight as the rains squalls become more intense over the western half of the state from 2am on. The hurricane force winds on the east coast should go down to TS force on the treasure coast by mid morning. Mass power outages will cover the state. Flooding in many rivers and lakes during the next 3 days. Many spawned tornados .....As like I been saying over the last 3 days here that we must learn from the environment around us that the models dont put in. We saw how Ivan went wnw and nw into TX/LA we know Jeanne will stay wnw into Lakeland before a more west turn. It isnt out of the possibility that she even makes it to Clearwater then ridge up the west coast. Anyways on the west coast of florida they should recieve winds around 50-80 mph ,, the higher closer to the center passage and also just sw of her if your on the gulf. I suspect surge of 4-6 ft alittle more then forcasted. Sarasota south should recieve winds from 30-50mph with higher gusts. Orlando will get the same as the Tampa-Lakeland area. After Jeanne moves north of Ocala later Sunday night,, we will have at least a week of calm then our attention will switch to the western carribean and the sw gulf as Oct will bring 1-2 storms from that area.


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Unregistered User]
      #32407 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:26 AM

GA Resident... the latest path puts Jeanne heading into GA and turning to the northeast, passing southeast of Macon. Winds will be down to the 25-35 mph range with gusts to 40 or so by then .. the windfield will be quite large, but should not be threatening. Rain will be your biggest concern... but nothing that you need to evacuate from, unless you live in a low lying area or along a river or other major drainage. Good luck with the surgery...

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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Unregistered User]
      #32408 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:26 AM

As a resident of Atlanta, I would say the best bet is to wait it out until at least noon today(Sunday). By that time we should have a good indication where Jeanne will be heading into Georgia.

But as a rule of thumb, if it heads out into the GOM(Gulf of...) and tracks more northerly through Alabama, then you may want to stay in Gainesville since Toccoa may be subject to flooding. but IF it takes the predicted path by the NHC, the nearest it will get will be Athens. basically watch Channel 2 news at noon and David Chandley will have a pretty good handle on it.

The most important thing is to get as much information as possible and don't go into flood prone areas.

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Staggy]
      #32409 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:26 AM

Quote:

Phil,

Any news from Richie? Last PM I got from him was @ 21:59 and his site stopped reporting @ 22:00. Hopefully he just lost power.




Sorry to anyone to whom I have not responded...I'm taking them one by one...

I tried to call him about 20 minutes ago and it was busy...as soon as I get done with this PM/post I will try again...

Thanks everyone for your concern...hopefully my next post will be a report of Richie...that damn red flashing envelope now reads 8.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: Unregistered User]
      #32410 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:26 AM

Quote:

I have a question that I'm hoping someone can help me answer. My husband is having surgery Monday in Gainesville Ga. I live near Toccoa, Ga. I am undecided on where to take my children. Is it better to be as far west as possible? I'm not sure where my children will be the safest.
I will be there at the hospital with him & dont know if they should be home in the basement, or at the medical center.
Thanks so much.


At this point, I would plan on doing what you were going to do in the first place, unless local emergency officials advise otherwise. You should be left of Jeanne's path - probably just a lot of rain (again). Our prayers go out to you, your husband and family.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32411 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:29 AM

Jervey and Hill are the only folks next to the WC that I watch, they show everything including the time when your gonna get it.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32412 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:34 AM

The last 4 position updates from the NHC have all been on Lat 27.2. Jeanne has traveled some 45 miles straight west... no turn yet.

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cindylou
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: Thoughs on Jeanne *DELETED* [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #32413 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:34 AM

Post deleted by cindylou

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: RevUp]
      #32414 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:34 AM

TWC-Stephanie is broadcasting while the eye of the storm passes over.

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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32415 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:36 AM

Thanks Scott! Dennis Phillips is saying he wouldnt be surprised if it exits right over man/sarasota county. Atleast it will only be a 1 or less.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: AdmittedHacker]
      #32416 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:38 AM

In 6 hours Jeanne moved from 27.1 to 27.2

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc: 28.43N 81.31W
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32417 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:38 AM

Why does everyone want to compare TV mets against NHC, and trash NHC? They complement each other. TV mets are doing a lot of now-casting and time filling; their story is sometimes about as fickle as the wind. NHC only issues once every 2-6 hours. Their roles are supposed to complement each other. Any TV met that trashes NHC on air doesn't deserve to be there.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Staggy]
      #32418 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:39 AM

Quote:

Phil,

Any news from Richie? Last PM I got from him was @ 21:59 and his site stopped reporting @ 22:00. Hopefully he just lost power.




JUST SPOKE WITH WXMAN RICHIE!

Yes, he lost power and he's in the dark...but other than that HE'S FINE! We didn't even talk about the yankees.

Thought this was "not as bad" as Frances...but I let him know all y'all were concerned...

He never did get to to talk to Jim W because Jim W lost power before HE did.

I just hope everyone else may be having a better time than in the past...

I'm here...sorry if not recently as I've had to answer 17 PMs and there are still six more...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #32419 - Sun Sep 26 2004 12:39 AM

Stay safe everyone.
Will check in later in the moring.


Warren Sapp.....still a force to recon with....


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