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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: 52255225]
      #32460 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:11 AM

Sorry was afk,.....1st question is on will it go out by Sarasota? I doubt that highly but its not a gurantee it wont. I would say the farthest south would be southern hillsborough thru pinellas out by clearwater. Do I think it will go out into the gulf though north of there? Well there is a 1/3 chance. Its better then say it going east of Orlando. Finally, with mets to other mets we will always agree to disagree. On tv will we acknowledge our own team of mets even if we feel they have a wrong thought on something. On the NHC we will say to follow their guidance. SO WE ARNT TO BLAME...heheh but in general if you look at the Melbourne-Tampa-Miami - where ever we coordinate with other NWS areas to help give out tweaks in our forcasts wtih their ideas. We always team up to get on Best same page.

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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: erauwx]
      #32461 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:12 AM

WINK TV in Ft. Myers just said that it's still moving west at (on?) 27.2 N at 13 mph. They also said the wind was 120 mph.

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #32462 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:14 AM

I just heard 120mph on NBC as well. How on earth did it increase 5mph as it was making landfall???

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #32463 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:14 AM

wink just got 1am adv.... yes it made landfall with 120mph and is moving slightly north of due west.... here's recon!

URNT12 KNHC 260426
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/0426Z
B. 27 DEG 11 MIN N
80 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2753 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 027 DEG 95 KT
G. 304 DEG 44 NM
H. EXTRAP 947 MB
I. 11 C/ 3081 M
J. 15 C/ 3080 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF980 2311A JEANNE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 95 KT NW QUAD 0418Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #32464 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:14 AM

That information was from the 1 p.m. advisory, which was written shortly before then. It's now 1;13
The movement more north is shown on radar. Stuart is now on the Southern edge of the eye.

Edited by alan (Sun Sep 26 2004 01:16 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: alan]
      #32465 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:16 AM

think 1 AM advisory!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32466 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:17 AM

yeah Colleen, I don't see any nw movement either.. if anything, more of a westerly movement with some wnw thrown in.. looks like it is headed towards Spring Hill area up north of us. Gary Vickers, Pinellas County EOC just said on tv that they expect high tropical storm force winds here in Pinellas and that hurricane force winds were going to be just north and east of us and that it could change. Looks like our area will start getting the wrath about 5 am till about noon or 1

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: erauwx]
      #32467 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:17 AM

WHAT THE HELL? The 1am advisory has the winds up to 120mph!!!!!!! I'm not even going there. How could it get stronger OVER land? Or did they underestimate it before it made landfall?
I do agree that it looks like that turn to the NW is starting to occur.
Oh this thing just gets more confusing as it goes on...

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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RickInRockledge
Unregistered




Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32468 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:18 AM

check for NW movement http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/...mp;zoommode=pan

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: alan]
      #32469 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:18 AM

yeah she has strengthn thanks to the St Lucie river,,,LOL JK....anyways for real she did though with the center interacting with land and tightning up the gradient from the water to landmass....although it has gone up to 120, it will start going down 10mph from now on every 2-3 hrs. Well I was going to say my landfall of 948mb was off thinking it was 953mb but now since its 947.2 I was right now. Beer anyone?

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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #32470 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:20 AM

Quote:

think 1 AM advisory!




Yes it is...

My body tells me to go to bed, but I just can't!


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RickInRockledge]
      #32471 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:21 AM

well, I don't see it.. I still see west with a touch of wnw.. but, maybe I'm blind.

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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 163
Loc: parrish fl
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32472 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:21 AM

Your the best Scott!

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: danielw]
      #32473 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:22 AM

Hoping to help:

TV stations that are livecasting on the web:

West Palm Beach:

http://www.thewpbfchannel.com/index.html

http://www.wflxfox29.com/

http://wpecnews12.com/

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/wptv/

Fort Myers

http://www.abc-7.com/ -live feed
http://www2.winktv.com/ - info, no live feed
http://www.nbc-2.com/ -live feed

Naples

http://www.wzvntv.com/ - -live feed

Miami

http://www.wfor.com/ -live feed
http://www.nbc6.net/index.html live feed

Tampa

http://www.wfla.com/ info, no live feed
http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2004/9/26/56414.html list of radio stations simulcasting Bay News 9
http://www.wfla.com/ list of radio stations simulcasting

Jacksonville

http://www.wawsfox30.com/ -live feed
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/ info, no live feed, webcams
http://www.news4jax.com/index.html no live feed, has County By County Storm Status

Orlando
http://www.wesh.com/index.html
http://www.wftv.com/index.html -live feed
http://www.local6.com/index.html live feed

'shana


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32474 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:22 AM

i think winds picked up right before landfall, because of water temps close to beach and the eyewall closed off to about 40 miles wide, compared to the 50 miles wide 3 hrs earlier.... had a eyewall replacement just before landfall...also the 120mph i heard was from a ground level observation on that island where eyewall came ashore....sustained wind too... i am thinking now she may exit near tampa into GOM, she is much faster than Frances!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: 11pm Forecast Map [Re: RickInRockledge]
      #32475 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:23 AM

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_HUR/animauto.html

At landfall, the top of the eye is half way across St. Lucie County to the north and across all of Martin County to the south. Now, the eye is the entire distance of St. Lucie County and only slightly in Martin County.


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BinCA
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: RickInRockledge]
      #32476 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:24 AM

Ga Resident: May I point out that by the time it gets to GA the wind shouldn't be the problem. As others have stated, flooding will be. Unless you are quite sure your house will remain high and dry, I would be concerned about the kids in the BASEMENT. They'd probably be safer upstairs (an interior room just in case there might be local tornados). But why not keep them with you? The hospital would certainly be a safe spot and you wouldn't have to worry.

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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Colleen A.]
      #32477 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:25 AM

Quote:

WHAT THE HELL? The 1am advisory has the winds up to 120mph!!!!!!! I'm not even going there. How could it get stronger OVER land? Or did they underestimate it before it made landfall?
I do agree that it looks like that turn to the NW is starting to occur.
Oh this thing just gets more confusing as it goes on...




Max Mayfield said on a local station here (Miami station) that a plane found the 120mph winds around the time of landfall. It said they were in an area that they hadn't been able to measure or something to that effect.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #32478 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:26 AM

The overall movement is about 280dg. the eye has been oval shaped and lopsided and as it wobbles it looks like it going more N or W but in general there is a just north then west course. To see a more N turn you would have to see the southern part of the eye move north for 3 hrs along with the northern part. When you right now see the northern part move nw,, you also see the southern part more wsw. Overall its just the eye is contracting in and out 1-2 miles per frame.

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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL 28.23N 81.65W
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32479 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:26 AM

Quote:

Beer anyone?




Yes. Mass quantities (or whatever Dan Akroyd used to do on the coneheads).

FWIW, some guy told me today at the liquor store when I was stocking up that they had suspended sale of alchohol in Brevard county at 6PM. Talk about adding insult to injury.....


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