MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Lisa has gained hurricane strength once again, far out in the eastern Atlantic, and fairly far north. Which came somewhat as a surprise. Still moving away from the US and Canada, so no threat to us.
Other than the western Caribbean it is with much great pleasure to say there isn't much going on in the Tropical Atlantic as far as new storm formation. The western Caribbean has never looked all that great to me watching it during the week, so I think the chances of that developing are fairly low.
The break is defnitely needed, but vigilance in the Atlantic will continue.
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, ,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
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HEY, It's Saturday in Florida !!!!
and
No Hurricane !!!!
Life is good.
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE GULF BY MID WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE STILL
FCST TO LINGER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THRU EARLY PART OF WEEK. LOTS
OF MOISTURE PROGGED TO HANG AROUND DOWN THERE. AS SFC HIGH MOVES
FURTHER EAST AND NEXT MID LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AND THE CANADIAN
MODEL ARE ALSO HINTING AT ONE OF OUR FAMOUS HYBRID TYPE SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING OUT THERE. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL BUT ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER...THINK ITS A SAFE BET POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WED-FRI. 47
I posted about a week or so ago that the only way we would see any kind of system here in Texas is from some sort of "hybrid" system. Now it is being mentioned in our local NWS statement. I guess we will have to wait and see what happens.
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 67
Loc: Rockledge 28.32N 80.77W
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Well life is good again and I am remembering why I love florida so much. It is so beautiful here. We took boards down from our windows for the first time in six weeks and it feels luxurious to have sunlight fill every room again. (we only boarded windows to the wind side of the house, so we had windows to leave by if needed.) The yard is still so mushy there are areas we can not mow yet and
Last night my son, in a rush to finish mowing what he could before the game, ran over the copper tubing and filter for the central a/c and sliced it into pieces, dumping 9 pounds of freon. As strapped as things have been, good lord. Landlord had it fixed but the bill was mine to pay. BUT we are cool again. Had some friends up in Eustes lose thier barn so we are going out to an old fashion barn rasing!
It is so nice to have clear blue skies and not a single swirl of confection anywhere in the caribbean or atlantic. I have heard rumors that we are entering a cycle that will put us into the same sort of senerio next year and for years after. Is this myth or based on some trend in the weather?? Sorry if someone has posted about this!
I hope everyone enjoys the sun this weekend, even if its to clean up. If anyone in my area needs a strong back, my son wants to jump in and help. Just shout.
Mom     
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
2008 15/11/6
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Florida, a target. What do you mean Who knows. All I want is one weekend of doing nothing!
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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I am not sure about the weather pattern repeating, but I also would like to hear it from people who know. I've heard that this year was an anomaly. I have heard that we would be in this pattern for the next 2-4 years and OMG that this is the first season in a 20 year pattern. I would really like to know. The weather and storms are fascinating to a point, but right now we are all so exhausted. I don't know what I'd do if this were to become the norm.
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When it rains, it pours...
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Heather, Im pretty sure this year was just an anomaly. Most likely something like this season wont happen again for a long time. At least I hope lol. So I advice folks in Flordia not to start packing there stuff and moving to Minnesota. (Like my parents want to do right now! lol) Have a good one ya'll.
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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: Iowa
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You may not all want to move up here just yet. Was 31 degrees here in Des Moines this AM. We've had a Florida tourism guy on TV that talks about the fact that the Miami-Sarasota area is still basically untouched, so COME ON DOWN!
We're sending many prayers your way!
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Eat a corndog today Go Hawkeyes!
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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I can't tell you how happy I am that we have a weekend with NO foreseeable hurricane threat (not that I have to tell any of you...). What a relief. It is greatly needed.
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Ivy
Unregistered
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What is a hybrid system?
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 397
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
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Quote:
I am not sure about the weather pattern repeating, but I also would like to hear it from people who know. I've heard that this year was an anomaly. I have heard that we would be in this pattern for the next 2-4 years and OMG that this is the first season in a 20 year pattern. I would really like to know. The weather and storms are fascinating to a point, but right now we are all so exhausted. I don't know what I'd do if this were to become the norm.
Even though I'm not an expert on any of this, I'd have to say, in reality we don't know if this year was truely anomolous or not. While it might be unusual based on recent past, Climatologists simply do not have enough information to say just what is typical, *over the long haul.* As has been pointed out in articles, to most people's surprise, Climate shifts occur over the course of decades, not centuries or longer.
No one knows enough information to declare if the weather patterns that set up this year will occur again next year, or will become more likely to occur. I'm inclined to believe (from nothing more than general information that I've installed in my brain) that patterns will shift and increase the odds of landfalling storms. Not particularly florida, but more generally the US. I think the "Bermuda" High will continue to be a stronger than normal and influence CV hurrricanes and keep them from recurving as much as we've seen previously.
Keep in mind, this is just my gut feeling, Don't buy houses or sell houses based on my thoughts. I"m not an expert nor do I have any clue what I'm talking about 
Mark
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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A hybrid system is a storm which has some tropical characteristics and has other characteristics that are not tropical in nature. Its difficult to tell which is which by the way they look on say, a satellite page we laypersons might look at, but the meterologists can look at the way the storm behaves, what the pressures are and how the storm responds to the atmosphere around it and can tell that this system is or is not a hybrid. The hybrid storms usually appear late in the storm season around late October/November and they do some weird things sometimes like go the opposite direction that storms are expected to go according to the climate.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Guppiegrouper,
Good anwser overall, but "hybird" storms don't travel in different directions then what storms are suppose to travel, they just form in a different areas, that's why the storms travel in different directions; location is everything. Hybird storms are not hurricanes but can become them. Many times it hard to tell if the storm is a hybird storm, from a mid-latitude cyclone.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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This is sort of off topic and sort of not. But I was just noticing on the Earthquake page I visit the pattern of earthquakes for the past 5 years and realized that a large majority of hurricanes or tropical systems travel over the same pathways as the earthquake patterns. It was quite interesting to me. this is the link:
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
Note the pattern of the purple coloring which is the last 5 years of earthquake tremors.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Nice! I have been looking all day at this and know that someone will be able to relate these events....I wish it were me so I could retire It does make one begin to think and wonder. This may not be off topic at all in the end... but now I return to doing nothing.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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There is a connection that has been hypothesized -- and all but proven -- by one of the preemininent hurricane/tropical meteorology professors out there that a landfalling major hurricane in the Atlantic tends to result in enough drag on the rotation of the Earth to cause a reaction in the tectonic plates, generally on the other side of the globe, a few days later in the form of an earthquake. It's happened at least a couple of times this year.
On Lisa -- finally, she's . Tomorrow should be the first day since the birth of that the entire basin has lacked a storm -- a span that has stretched over a month since August 25th. It was really interesting to read the 11pm discussion on the storm, mainly because I eat the transition stuff up...and they mentioned my "boss" and his work directly in the text. In any case though, knock on wood, we should be quiet for at least a short time to come.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE National Hurricane Center IS ISSUING ITS LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM LISA AT 11 PM EDT...LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 475 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES AND BECOMING .
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL DEVELOPMET IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED OVER AND NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Yessssss, thank you.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That's very interesting. Do you know how much drag would be recieved? Because I'm doing a paper on the planets orbit's in particular the Earth's, and that could very well effect some secondary motion.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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Quote:
There is a connection that has been hypothesized -- and all but proven -- by one of the preemininent hurricane/tropical meteorology professors out there that a landfalling major hurricane in the Atlantic tends to result in enough drag on the rotation of the Earth to cause a reaction in the tectonic plates, generally on the other side of the globe, a few days later in the form of an earthquake.
Hmmm... I would really be interested in reading the research on this. Doesn't seem plausible that such comparitively superficial surface events like hurricanes could impact plate movements in a way that is statistically and scientifically measurable. Anecdotal evidence, sure, but determining the influence of a hurricane on a stress that has been building up over hundreds, thousands, if not millions of years seems a little far-fetched. Can you post a link to current literature on the idea?
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Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I have been keeping up with earthquake activity since I discoverd the site previously mentioned, about one year ago. In that time I noticed a flurry of earthquake activity that was almost constant back in the spring.
I hypothetize that the flurry of earthquake activity incidentally on the opposite side of the planet, contributed to the hurricane activity seen in the atlantic this year.
The earthquakes shake the atmosphere, and influence the strength, size, intensity of the hurricanes much as shaking a jar of water with a lid on it would. You might even compare it to shaking a jar of selzer water. The long range effects would be monumental! So in keeping with my theory: Winter could be very stormy for those effected because of this recent flurry of earthquake activity and where this occurs would be interesting to study. Please realize that I have not studied meterology and this is stuff off the top of my pointed little head. May not have any semblance of truth to it.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Everything effects everything, one motion is born from another. Stress might be building up in the fault but a trigger is needed, always; that trigger could be anything. A hurricane has many particles, though the drag may be small it is still there.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
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The cause of a quake and the trigger of a quake are two entirely differnt animals. Could the drag force created by a hurricane making landfall trigger a quake? It's plausible. I am not familiar with the dynamics of the force you are referring to, so I would have to read the research. If it slows the rotation of the Earth, then I would expect the tectonic influence to be global, not localized. Remember, the focus (point of origin) of earthquakes is typically tens to hundreds of miles underground, and energy does not propogate well through the Earth's fractured crust. Even nuclear explosions have been shown to have no effect on seismicity.
Either way, for a hurricane to trigger a quake, the portion of the fault that is triggered by such a force would have to be primed to move anyway, so is it really signifcant that it moves one day, one month, one year verses the next? Geologically speaking, no.
Another issue lies with how to prove that that a hurricane making landfall on one side of the globe triggers a quake a week later on the opposite side of the globe. How are going to gather that evidence? Remember, coincidence does not make good science.
A temporary increase or decrease in the seismicity rate is usually just that -- part of the natural variation in the Earth's or a region's seismicity.
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Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/science/30hurricane.html?ex=1097638839
&ei=1&en=3cd89261538d8ab9
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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It wouldn't post on this site either. The Times paper wants you to register so here is the article:
Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
September 30, 2004
By Andrew C. REVKIN
Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase
in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming
decades, according to the most comprehensive computer
analysis done so far.
By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric
concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases could
cause a typical hurricane to intensify about an extra half
step on the five-step scale of destructive power, says the
study, done on supercomputers at the Commerce Department's
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J.
And rainfall up to 60 miles from the core would be nearly
20 percent more intense.
Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of
global warming. But this study is particularly significant,
independent experts said, because it used half a dozen
computer simulations of global climate, devised by separate
groups at institutions around the world. The long-term
trends it identifies are independent of the normal lulls
and surges in hurricane activity that have been on display
in recent decades.
The study was published online on Tuesday by The Journal of
Climate and can be found at
www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf.
The new study of hurricanes and warming "is by far and away
the most comprehensive effort" to assess the question using
powerful computer simulations, said Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel, a
hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology who has seen the paper but did not work on it.
About the link between the warming of tropical oceans and
storm intensity, he said, "This clinches the issue."
Dr. Emanuel and the study's authors cautioned that it was
too soon to know whether hurricanes would form more or less
frequently in a warmer world. Even as seas warm, for
example, accelerating high-level winds can shred the
towering cloud formations of a tropical storm.
But the authors said that even if the number of storms
simply stayed the same, the increased intensity would
substantially increase their potential for destruction.
Experts also said that rising sea levels caused by global
warming would lead to more flooding from hurricanes - a
point underlined at the United Nations this week by leaders
of several small island nations, who pleaded for more
attention to the potential for devastation from tidal
surges.
The new study used four climate centers' mathematical
approximations of the physics by which ocean heat fuels
tropical storms.
With almost every combination of greenhouse-warmed oceans
and atmosphere and formulas for storm dynamics, the results
were the same: more powerful storms and more rainfall, said
Robert Tuleya, one of the paper's two authors. He is a
hurricane expert who recently retired after 31 years at the
fluid dynamics laboratory and teaches at Old Dominion
University in Norfolk, Va. The other author was Dr. Thomas
R. Knutson of the Princeton laboratory.
Altogether, the researchers spawned around 1,300 virtual
hurricanes using a more powerful version of the same
supercomputer simulations that generates Commerce
Department forecasts of the tracks and behavior of real
hurricanes.
Dr. James B. Elsner, a hurricane expert at Florida State
University who was among the first to predict the recent
surge in Atlantic storm activity, said the new study was a
significant step in examining the impacts of a warmer
future.
But like Dr. Emanuel, he also emphasized that the
extraordinary complexity of the oceans and atmosphere made
any scientific progress "baby steps toward a final answer."
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/science/30hurricane.html?ex=1097638839
&ei=1&en=3cd89261538d8ab9
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Drag related from hurricanes causing earthquakes is yes plausible. A hurricane is a huge coalescence of water vapor, which will have some density difference then the surronding enviorment. Remember the famous formula Mass over Volume, well hurricanes surely have a hefty mass, and volume but they're comprised up of similar gases, so the density difference is small. This causes wind to have an obstructed flow, and have three choices over, to the sides or through. This would slow down the prevailing atmospheric flow, to a point where the friction between the earth and atmosphere would increase, causing a slight decrease in rotational speed. After that I don't know how it would work, because if you were to slow down the rotational speed of Earth, angular momentum would decrease and gravity would increase, therefore causing all magma to be surpressed. That's my take on the whole thing, I know that many other factors contribute to having a volcano erupt, degassing, density of rock material, source of rock material etc. so gravity is just one small thing and besides gravity is a weak force when you think of it.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Mon Oct 04 2004 05:31 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Well, it was great to be away for a weekend during the 2004 hurricane season and NOT have to read through 400 posts. What a well deserved break for all!
Interesting stuff on the hurricane-earthquake theories...
Got to watch a full day of CFB and now 2 NFL games without ONCE flipping to the ! Watching J-E-T-S vs. the So. Beach Denizens right now...CBS just showed a clip of Beatiful Miami Beach...now I know why they call it the Sunshine State...all I know is the five times I've visited, usually for a minimum of 5 days, I only saw one t-storm...in Ft. Laud...2001 (a month after 9/11)... it was the MOTHER of all storms, yes, but it was over as quickly as it started. What happened in 2004 WAS an anomoly...for sure...something that probably would repeat itself once in 150-200 years...of course that COULD be next year, or in 10 years or in 200 years...but over the long haul, probably no one alive now will ever see another landfalling season like this one.
And like Second shift said a few posts above, it's supposed to be 40 degrees here tomorrow night and possibly in the 30's on Tuesday & Wednesday...I hate WINTER!
Anyhoo, everybody try to get back to normal, enjoy Fri. Night Lights, CFB on Sat & the pros on Sunday...
I'm about willing to declare CV season DONE! and let's hope the GOM/Carrib season only whips up a TS or two...
It will, of course, take weeks, months and maybe years to fully recover from the past 2 months, but you guys will recover, and come back stronger than ever! (Group Hug). Still not time to let the guard down, but a collective sigh of relief can finally be breathed.
Finally, you want fire, brimstone, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and a massive expelling of hot air, tune in to the VP debates Tuesday Night. There may be a bonus point question in the E&N forum before then
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Although no action is imminent, these signs at my house have been in the forefront today. I observed slug slime on my front walk this morning, not a usual thing to see. The gnats are in the thousands bunching in areas that have no known reason for them to be there. My dog has been so grumpy, I had to give her benedryl to calm her down. Although the previous mentioned signs do not a forecast make, they usually portend a development of a system some where near by. So, for what its worth, you can be looking for something to develop in the next 3 days. It has been this way since May when I had no idea something was going to be attacking the south of us. Sounds pompus but its true.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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The literature is currently under development. As I mentioned, it's only a theory, but something being looked at informally right now here at .
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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Quote:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/science/30hurricane.html?ex=1097638839
&ei=1&en=3cd89261538d8ab9
Using the URL feature:
Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
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From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Subject change.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Oct 03 2004 10:57 PM)
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
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Quote:
Will the GOM see another system?
Ummm? Trick question? Cause the GOM will see one... eventually...
But you meant this year, right? I think so. Maybe just TS, but something.
'shana
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas 29.78N 94.88W
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Looks like convection is flaring up in the GOM this morning. The latest from the Hou/Gav NWS - could be a rainmaker for us here in SouthEast Texas come Wednesday/Thursday.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 040858
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004
.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. BOTH ETA/GFS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TX TODAY...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE DFW AREA.
LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT OUR FAR NRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
EXPECT A SEABREEZE TO FORM NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN AND GENERATE
SCATTERED TSRA OVER CENTRAL ZONES.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE TX
THIS EVENING. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND
K-INDICES IN THE MID 30S ACROSS SE TX. ALTHOUGH IS LIKELY
OVERDOING PRECIP DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...EXPECT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW TO KEEP TSRA GOING MAINLY NRN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD
FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX.
MEANWHILE...BOTH ETA/GFS SHOW NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NE
ZONES TUE AFTN WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL
GO HIGHEST POPS SOUTHERN HALF TUE...LOWEST IN THE NORTHEAST. FRONT
SHOULD STALL OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES TUE NIGHT...AND TEMPORARY DRYING
SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ENABLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
GFS SHOWS PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY LATE WED...AND
UPWARDS OF 2.2 INCHES BY 12Z THU. ETA IS MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE THU/THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF FRIDAY. WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER SE TX..LOOKS
LIKE A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
INVERTED TROF/WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SE TX WILL BE SLOW TO DRY OUT WITH UPPER
LOW STILL LINGERING OVER THE STATE. WILL SHOW GRADUALLY LOWERING
POPS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS/RAIN...BUT WILL STILL FORECAST WELL ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE.
35
&&
.MARINE...
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SE OUT OF CANADA TOWARD
THE EAST COAST WILL SET UP A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS AS WELL
AS INCREASING TIDE LEVELS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WED-FRI.
SHOWERS & TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS & BAYS WED
NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE ON THE WATERS AFTER
TUES. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
LBX WILL SEE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR FOG EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE. REST OF TERMINALS MAY SEE AN HOUR OR OF THE 5-6SM
VARIETY. THE MAIN DILEMMA FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIP
COVERAGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS FOR IAH SOUTHWARD IN THE 20-24Z TIME PERIOD.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD CLL...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY IN THE DFW AREA ARE DEPICTED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD THRU THE DAY - POSSIBLY BY OUTFLOWS. IF HIS
OCCURS IT WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. MAY KEEP CB'S OR VCSH'S GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (IAH
SOUTHWARD) INTO THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IF THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD PUSH. DON'T ANTICIPATE CEILINGS BEING MUCH
OF AN ISSUE TODAY...MAINLY VSBY'S IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
OVERALL...TOUGH FCSTS THRU WED SINCE THEY WILL HINGE ON
LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THESE WEAK UPPER IMPULSES AND/OR BOUNDARIES
THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT VERY FAR OUT IN TIME. 47
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 68 82 66 83 / 50 50 50 30 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 71 84 67 84 / 30 40 50 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 76 84 75 84 / 20 30 50 30 40
&&
$$
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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I have good news for everyone. If you go to a site, usually newspapers etc... that require you to register don't fret!
Go to bugmenot.com, type in the URL of the site requiring registration (such as orlandosentinel.com) and get a login and password. Worked several times for me.
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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That cluster of thunderstorms just zoomed over the Yucatan during the night and is making banding this morning that "looks" like system formation. It is doing this awfully fast. This means that if a system were to develop, it would be doing it pretty fast too I think. I am going to keep loooking at this one. My animals were wild all day yesterday. They did not carry on like this when any of the other storms were forming., I think it was because they had time to adjust to the events around them. But yesterday was wild!!!!
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Shortbus
Unregistered
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Quote:
Although no action is imminent, these signs at my house have been in the forefront today. I observed slug slime on my front walk this morning, not a usual thing to see. The gnats are in the thousands bunching in areas that have no known reason for them to be there. My dog has been so grumpy, I had to give her benedryl to calm her down. Although the previous mentioned signs do not a forecast make, they usually portend a development of a system some where near by. So, for what its worth, you can be looking for something to develop in the next 3 days. It has been this way since May when I had no idea something was going to be attacking the south of us. Sounds pompus but its true.
My dogs were acting very weird yesterday and last night as well, I didn't think much of it but looking back it was very unusual behavior for them, they seemed really restless and one keeps trying to bury himself under blankets, cushions..etc. It'll be interesting to see if anything happens
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Rodney
Unregistered
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anyone notice that hurricanes have come thru Central Florida every three weeks?
If this pattern holds, next one should be October 16th.
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 67
Loc: Rockledge 28.32N 80.77W
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Do you think that perhaps your dog (and others acting as strange) might be picking up on the building magna in Mt. St. Helens? I know it might be a reach to think that dogs this far away might be picking up on it, unless your in Texas where we got ash the last time it blew. I remember washing it off my car. I know that this disturbance can cause a ripple effect all over the earth. (right??)
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
2008 15/11/6
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Morning all. Sorry I've been away for most of the last month, but the volume was just too insane for me to follow. I guess under the news talkback format, when something is so close to home as the 5 FL landfalls so far this year, it just gets a bit overwhelming to keep up with. I was skimming and browsing, but it seemed like every time I left the site and came back a couple of hours later, there were another 200 posts. Great for the site, bad for me
It looks like the Western Gulf is the next threat. Bastardi is talking potential for heavy rains in coastal TX and LA. He was pretty noncommital but did note a 98 (yikes) or Allison type system where there will be tremendously heavy rains - just on the North and East sides. The real key is the surge of tropical moisture and not necessarily development or lack of it. Most of the precip models are keying in on some strong rains for ETX and WLA. Hey, we've got something to track this week anyway, and i get a shot at some rain. I'm thankful for that. This is also my week to ditch Bastardi until next June, so any future updates are going to have to come from someone else. I'll be re-subscribing next year of course.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Grasshopper2
Unregistered
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If anyone is interested. Here is a report on what the weather was like out in the gulf yesterday.
Finally got to get back on the water this weekend. Had to be the most beautiful day I've had in years. I was at my friend Jaryd's house watching the Browns game, and at half time he asked if i wanted to go fishing. So, off we went. We left around 16:00 with his brother-in-law, another Matt, and went about 35 miles due west of New Port Richie. Seas were 1'-2' @ ~10 second intervals, water temp 82.5F. Consistant light wind out of the NW. Conditions stayed like that till about 20:00. Just unbelivablely beautiful out. The fish were good to us too. Brought home 28"& 23" Gags (Black Grouper ). We threw back 3 that were just over/under the limit.
Sunset was amazing. There was a good sized thunderstorm N of us, with a band of clouds that spread SW of us. The sun lit them all up in a bright orange. Looked Like someone took a huge orange cotton ball and streatched it out from the panhandle to Mexico. Judging distance on the water is so hard but I would say the storm was 100-500 miles N of us, with the "front" about 100 miles @ it's closest point. Winds shifted to N and kicked up to 10-15 knt and the seas rose to 3-4 with white on the tips, something we hadent seen all day, so we decided to head back. Conditions never changed again, but the storm never died either.
I am not a professional, fisherman or otherwise, and did my best to observe and judge conditions as I saw them, the only "guage" I had was a thermometer, on fish finder. We go out , weather permitting, about every 2 weeks. Sometimes we go as far as 120 miles. If anyone finds any of this information valuable I would be happy to post/PM after each trip.
Hope all had as good of a sunday....
Matt
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grasshopper2
Unregistered
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Live eruption coverage..... www.katu.com
Steam releasing right now.....
Matt
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.65N 88.14W
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Have you guys in Florida had the love bugs like we have here in LA? (lower Alabama) Also, have killed three rattlesnakes (2 yesterday-one in the front yard and one at the back door). We are still waiting on an adjuster. I was typing on a PM about yesterday I was hanging up my clothes in my closet and I guess this is the first time I have been in my closet during day light hours (since the storm), but I could see day light, but not what was causing it. I got a flashlight and looked and one of the flimsiest plastic white coathangers was stuck through my ceiling and still in perfect shape. You can see daylight through it. I knew when I stayed up through the storm that you could hear and feel wind blowing through my air conditioning vents (with no power) actually harder than the air conditioner blows. I guess this is from some sort of suction on my roof??? Anyone else have such? If you tried to make that coat hanger go through the ceiling the coat hanger would smush.?!?!
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
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Kimberly, we must have had air blowing thru the vents because our house was incredibly dusty after . Another strange thing was that the clothes dryer, which vents to the roof, had lots of lint blown back down to the back-side of the lint filter.
--Fay
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.65N 88.14W
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I guess I better check there since my dryer also vents through the roof. My husband suffered a stroke last August and can't do any of the work now. We are incredibly BLESSED though, to have a roof to fix, etc. I have learned to be thankful because it can ALWAYS be worse.
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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sthorne
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, FL
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Quote:
anyone notice that hurricanes have come thru Central Florida every three weeks?
If this pattern holds, next one should be October 16th.
Perish the thought! That's my daughter's 9th birthday, and we have CF plans.
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sthorne
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, FL
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This is the best I've seen this page for a couple of months...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
I shall savor it for the moment.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The area of disturbed weather in the GOM is showing signs of strengthening, some moderate to isolated strong convection. Usually the storms that form next to the Yutcatan peninusula produce massive amounts of rain e.g Allison not that much wind, though. This storm has the potential to be a gully washer as indicated by some of the well-known models, something to watch for sure. Another possible area of concern would be the behind the in the Leeward islands. The 's really start to ramp up in the early fall months and provide shear... sometimes the storms pass under these 's and can develop. Neverless, another area of concern down the road. The minor peak in October seems evident.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
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Something's up. All our local tv people are saying starting tonight we're gonna get rain, sometimes heavy but that on Thursday it's *really* gonna come down....
Kinda wondering how heavy that 'heavy' rain will be. They don't call Central Texas "Flash Flood Capital" for nothing... don't worry tho- I know what those big rulers standing on the side of the road are for and there aren't any near our house
'shana
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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"The Gulf looks dirty this morning, and a setup for a drenching coastal rain for Texas and Louisiana is there, and with it comes the chance for tropical development. The type of development it would be is more along the lines of an Allison or (1998 version), a system that concentrates its energy so that big wind and rain problems would occur only near and northeast of the center. The tropical wave is now in the southern Gulf. The idea is its energy feeds northward toward the Texas coastal bend over the next several days. This develops low pressure near or just east of the South Texas coast by Wednesday night, which then drifts slowly northward or northeastward. The tightening gradient between the low and the big high to the northeast sends a large area of 20- to 35-knot east to southeast winds through the northern Gulf, which tighten up and focus over the northwest Gulf Thursday and Friday.
Even without such development, this is a nasty-looking rain threat. The development would just tack a name onto it, and chances are that we could be going toward one of those arguments (as with Allison) that still persists as to what it is. However, the practical weather aspect right now is that there is a flood threat later in the week for southeast Texas and Louisiana. The flood threat earlier is out on the southern High Plains. There is probably going to be an area where there is not nearly as much rain.
The Canadian and UKMET and are all lined up with northwestern Gulf development and the one needs a calculator for Canadian rain amounts. Suffice it to say this has been talked about here for awhile. Right now, I see no need to change the idea on the threat as far as the heavy rain goes. Whether or not there is a fight on Friday as to if it is named, my feeling now is there is a good chance that at least tropical-storm force winds are in the northwest Gulf out of this Thursday night or Friday. But as we saw with Allison, we don't need a deep storm to do the dirty work as the lowest pressure at first landfall was only 1003 mb."
Hey Keith, you got your lat/lon backwards! Unless that is, you live in Greenland part time
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Actually them forecasting this big rain event for SE Texas may be a good thing. Usually when they predict a big rain event it doesn't happen. It's when they DON'T forecast it is when we are in trouble, ala...ALLISON. On 's second trip around we were suppose to get almost 10 inches and didn't get a drop. I've been tracking this stat for a while because I noticed this trend a long time ago. Maybe it's just a SE Texas thing!
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
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Possibly. The thing is... we're in Austin so I'm kinda confused as to where we are getting all this rain from. One station said the coming cold front (the last one over the weekend gave us 3" of rain in almost 2 hours, then 89F on Sunday.) and another says 'developing situation in the Gulf'.
Hard to figure out - normally if we get severe Gulf weather, it has to come in way south of Houston then curve around...
As far as I know tho, only Carla made it this far inland as a hurricane. One tracking site I saw shows that Carla was a cat 3 (dropping to a Cat 1 rapidly) when she got here, but that's kinda difficult to imagine... so I figure at most we'll just get rain here. If it gets this far.
'shana
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"If the pen is mightier than the sword and a picture is worth a thousand words, is a camera a weapon of mass destruction? "
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I think they're right this time, people learn from there mistakes and usually correct them. The trough, over parts of northern Texas is experincing some very heavy rain. This trough will then be followed by a strong ridging, which inturn will create a "bleeding" southwest flow, as some people like to call it. The storm therefore will have a choice, which is mainly dependent on how far down the trough digs, and the ridge builds which could be quite a lot. Some temps in Texas are only suppose to top off at 70 degrees f, that's pretty cool for there. If this is a rain event for Texas coastline, the rain will be enhanced by the by the southwest flow and the baroclinic atmosphere, this could possibly lead to a hybird storm as banding features develop, isolated convection on one side of the storm.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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You're going to get rain from both of the systems, the cold front and the depression, whatever it may be. Fist there is quite a lot of blocking upstream going on, possible Omega block, this will push the cold front more southerly then usually. In the winter time, this upper level pattern feature would lead to some nasty nor' easter but then again that is pretty far away.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
815 PM EDT MON OCT 4 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A LEVEE FAILURE IN...
NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA
* UNTIL 215 AM EDT
* AT 809 PM EDT...REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC AND THE BRADFORD COUNTY
SHERIFF INDICATED THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE LAWTEY AREA
NEAR COUNTY ROAD 225 WEST. WHILE THE CAUSE OF THE FLOODING IS
NOT YET KNOWN...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LEVEE ON A RETENTION
POND HAS FAILED CAUSING FLASH FLOODING OF IMMEDIATELY
SURROUNDING AREAS.
* AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE LAWTEY.
Additional information, below, from NWS Jacksonville Area Forecast Discussion.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EDT MON OCT 4 2004
. HYDRO...UPDATE...HAVE TALKED TO EM IN BRADFORD COUNTY AND WAS UNABLE TO CONFIRM PUBLIC REPORT OF FLOODING DUE TO POSSIBLE LEVEE FAILURE... FLOODED ROADS WERE LEFT OVER RESULTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IN JEANNE AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND UPDATE WITH FLOOD STATEMENT CONCERNING FLOODING ON SOME SECONDARY ROADS IN THE COUNTY.
Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 05 2004 02:47 AM)
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 114
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.32N 80.35W
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School opened for most kids in county after a month off for the twin canes in area. More schools will open each day as they can be readied.
One interesting thing was that several of the buses had national guardsman in two man teams driving. I guess the driver shortage is even worse now. No dounbt a lot of the drivers are working in the recovery efforts.
Wrote a list of damages for the adjuster. Nothing really terrible but it sure adds up when you look at it written down.
The quiet time in tropics is oh so welcome. I hope everyones recovery is at least on track.
Hope folks in texas get some rain without the flooding.
Hurric
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Hi Everyone,
In the much appreciated "down-time" of tropical activity, I have been working on putting together a little web-page of images from the hurricanes of 2004. Most of the pictures were taken by myself locally here in central Florida. There are pages included of media photos to round out the picture portfolio depicting the destruction these storms dealt Florida. The project is still a work in progress. I have finished with and , and will be updating the and Jeanne pages in coming days. Check it out and let me know what you think:
The Hurricane Season Of 2004
--Lou
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Great page, I think Sadie (another user) could actually use this page to help her on her project about hurricanes. Man those rainbands bring a lot of rain.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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They always say that, it's like they have next to them a rubic of sentences to say. "All's well that end's well" No harm meant forecaster Stewart. Also, I metioned about the and how they shear the storms, got to get some points on that one.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Tue Oct 05 2004 06:58 AM)
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Terri
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
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Quote:
Hi Everyone,
In the much appreciated "down-time" of tropical activity, I have been working on putting together a little web-page of images from the hurricanes of 2004.
Excellent job, Lou! A picture truly says a thousand words.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I received this PM from FL Marilyn...perhaps someone who has received reimbursement can better answer this question than I:
"I noticed that on Sept 24th you had mentioned people who had bought a generator will be reimbursed. Would you happen to know who I can contact or what website I may need to go to so I may find out how what application I will need to fill out? I only heard about this - I haven't received any information. "
I know a few of you mentioned this (reimbursement). Is it done through FEMA? Any replies would greatly be appreciated.
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Lou, great work...maybe Mike will make that a permanent link on the site...don't forget to credit skeeter for his map though
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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Quote:
Check it out and let me know what you think:
The Hurricane Season Of 2004
Very nice work.
Is really finished? If you do not wish to add media photos for , including the following link would provide a good perspective of Frnces beyond Casselberry.
Hurricane Photo Gallery
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From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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My local paper also has a gallery.
Hurricane Galleries
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From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
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anony
Unregistered
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Gernerator reimbursements are through FEMA, you need to call the 1-800-621-FEMA number. You can only be reimbursed if you are in a county that has been decalred for individual assistance. They will tell you if you are eligible when you call.
sc 
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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That is nice work Lou! I wish I had got more shots but our damage was not that bad except for the tornados. The post by anony regarding generators is correct. FEMA has ad's running here for that and they include chain saws also.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
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Our homeowners insurance paid for our generator, so be sure to check that out, too.
---
Fay
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Just a bit of the AFD from Tally....
.LONG TERM...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO THE NE TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH EFFECTS
FROM THE DEVELOPING GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY BEGIN
IMPACTING THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING WHEN AND WHERE WILL IT
DEVELOP...AND WHETHER IT WILL BE SUBTROPICAL OR PURELY BAROCLINIC.
IN ANY EVENT...IF IT DOES TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH...IT COULD BE A
DECENT RAIN PRODUCER OVER THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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both the systems mentioned in the two have the potential to develop, in spite of the downplay they're officially getting. as the tallahassee extended discussion mentions, the true nature of the gulf system will be questionable (nhc is stand-offish about hybrids), and the system east of the antilles should be drawn up into a deep trough in the central atlantic. both will be trying to develop in a baroclinic environment, so i'm guessing may choose to ignore them unless their appearances are clearly on the tropical side. should be a defined low near the tx/mx border by late thursday moving ne. evolution of the atlantic system highly dependent on how much energy is entrained into the max on the trough cutting off this weekend.
kay and the invest pair in the eastpac have the atlantic response timer going.. sometime 5-10 days from october 4th there will quite possibly be an atlantic feature that goes (or features that go). don't think the globals are reading into things right now.. pattern will evolve differently than what keeps indicating (trending to zonal in the extended period) if goes solidly negative (which it ought to before too long).
HF 2041z05october
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I just don't see this panning out for us here in the Houston area for all this rain. I think this system will track more towards the NE and that will put us on the drier side. Again, when they predict a major rain event or flooding, like they are right now, it doesn't seem to happen that way.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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I'm not expecting any real development other than rain out of the current systems, least for now.
I did put up a Mt. St Helens animated cam in the style of the mobile cam though
http://new.flhurricane.com/mshcam.php
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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About the El nino phase thing, I've been noticing that it's very similar to that of 2002 except earlier. The one thing I can't find info on is what negative and positive mean in such things like the , the NAO, , and the PNA? Thanks!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The Genensis parameter is starting to move much farther north by the Bremuda area. The phase as HF said is going will be or is forecasted to go negative, which will create systems to start favoring an baroclinic nature. Since we're not that busy, me in particular; I like to observe hybird storms. A good indicator of where to look for hybird storms to delveop, is when a very strong high is near an area some vorticity and lift, it could possibly help the storms in two ways, tapping into a cold pool and providing some strong ULD (upper level divergence). Just something to watch if you're not busy.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Is really finished? If you do not wish to add media photos for , including the following link would provide a good perspective of beyond Casselberry.
Actually, was completed EXCEPT for the media pictures page. I just spent several hours fixing up the images and uploading all of them.
Thanks for all the kind words regarding this project. I will be completing it over the next several days.
Hurricane Season 2004
--Lou
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Looks like a fall pattern setting up across the country. Nothing real favorable for tropical development now. Could this meanan early end to the season, at least for landfalling systems?? I get the feeling that one more strong system will evolve out of the western Caribbean, possibly the third week of October. Other than that nothing more will threaten the US. Thoughts? Very quiet out there. I think everyone posting from the southeast US has had enough tropical weather this year 
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anony
Unregistered
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hybrid, not hybird
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 780
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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As of today, there seems to be at least a mid level low near 21N and 97W, and in the visible that may actually be reflected to the surface ...not strong...Bastardi calls this an "open" system on the west but with gales and 9' seas...and ultimate destination across the big bend of Florida and into the ATL.
Mets here(Tampa media) have added rain and wind to forecasts for Monday/Tuesday.
It remains to be seen if this will be seen as "tropical", but I doubt it unless, as some have stated, it looks the part completely. Another land falling tropical system this year , espec. in Florida has too many implications economically.
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doug
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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12Z not too bullish on the GOM system right now, as well as other models. Let's watch and see how this evolves. For the longer range, the shows a strong low developing in the western GOM day 9, then taking it to the panhandle and up to the NE US as a strong nor'easter. Again that's long range, so let's see how the models play both features over the next few days. Cheer!!
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Tally ADF....
.SHORT TERM...GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN
GULF...THAT IS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO ON INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ETA HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION...TRACKING SLOWER AND MOVING MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND SITUATED
IN AR BY 84 HRS. HARD TO GO AGAINST SOLUTION AND WILL TEND TOWARDS IT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE ACCEPTED A BLEND OF THE 06Z AND THE
DGEX. THE 06Z HAS THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DGEX TENDS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE
TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENCY
FROM THE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AFTER CHATTING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
APPLY GREATER WEIGHT TO THE . BASED ON WHAT IS SEEN IN THE MODELS...DO
NOT THINK THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on October 6, 2004
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area
of low pressure has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This
system is expected to move slowly northward with some potential for
development during the next day or two.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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there.. they've decided to recognize it for what it is at last. if the ideas and the forecast philosophy of the previous discussions pans out, this system will track into a heavy shear environment and become baroclinic in nature. a more northward than eastward track will result in a lopsided, sheared low of dubious tropical nature. the other option is that it develops quickly and jets ENE into the gulf like josephine did back in '96. if it's up near brownsville tomorrow, nix that idea.. but if it deepens overnight into a classified system watch out NE gulf coast.
strung out disturbed weather from east of the antilles to up northeast of bermuda is a developing complex system that should have a low moving northward over the weekend bombing out (most likely ).. with a deep layer low forming on it's western flank over marginal waters. minor potential for a short lived high latitude hybrid here. further south wave energy is plodding west into shear and mostly being drawn northward.
SOI just went negative today, so backing in the deep tropics may start upping the chances of caribbean action, or even more action in the southeast atlantic.. next week. nothing really showing up on the long range, but the pattern should begin to dictate where disturbed weather musters.
also, as mentioned by steve h, deep trough forecast to descend into the eastern u.s. near mid-month, with a noreaster-type storm running from the gulf up the appalachains/atlantic coastal plain the weekend after this one. the associated pattern would favor a storm coming up out of the caribbean were there to be one present.. something to keep in mind. the globals aren't seeing anything just yet...
HF 2126z06october
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 06 2004 05:29 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The Gobal's, in paticualry the is overdoing the cold advection for that ridge that's going to be building in the east, not nearly that cold of weather should be excepted...Another landfalling typhoon in the West pacific, they've had prob. the worst season on record this year. It's all about the placement of the ridge se of the Japan area, and this is very similar for the U.S hurricane landfalling season; the placement of the sub-tropical ridge. Hopefully we'll get a better season next year. The disturbance in the Gulf is slowing moving, getting it's rain all together, this should be some type of hybird storm as convergence seems to be reserved for the northern to eastern portion of the storm, the rest should be a cloud swirl... tropical storm force winds should be excepted, the easterly flow will be quite strong. The east pacific is springing to life some "ghost" storms, due to the mosoon type trough existing in northern south america. Just to add on what HF (I'm like GHWBush I resate the same anwser ) said, a noreaster could present a bit of a problem in about 12 days, might trigger a presitent area of disturbed weather in the gulf of alaska. The is negative as forecasted, this season is turing out to be a very similar one to 2002, this will favor more baroclinic storms as I metioned in another post. There is a wave before the leeward islands that is partially proprogating northward, that could become a strong strom, give them folks up there in the Canadian Martimes some bad weather. There seems to be a pattern existing if you look at some of the old best track charts, once you have a couple of years with bad storms in the sotheast that threat starts moving northward to the mid-atlantic and Canadian Martimes. Look at some of the charts, pretty constient. That's about it, pretty quiet around here that's the way I like it!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas 29.78N 94.88W
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Here is the model run for it......
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952004) ON 20041007 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041007 0000 041007 1200 041008 0000 041008 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 95.8W 22.5N 96.0W 24.2N 95.0W 26.0N 92.8W
BAMM 21.0N 95.8W 22.1N 96.7W 23.2N 96.9W 24.2N 96.2W
A98E 21.0N 95.8W 21.9N 95.7W 22.8N 95.4W 23.6N 94.8W
LBAR 21.0N 95.8W 22.4N 96.1W 23.8N 96.2W 25.2N 96.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041009 0000 041010 0000 041011 0000 041012 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.7N 90.0W 30.9N 83.0W 30.7N 73.9W 28.7N 61.7W
BAMM 25.0N 94.5W 27.0N 90.9W 30.4N 88.6W 33.4N 86.0W
A98E 24.5N 93.9W 28.1N 91.3W 32.1N 87.7W 34.3N 82.4W
LBAR 26.1N 95.5W 26.9N 94.0W 28.2N 92.3W 28.9N 89.6W
SHIP 51KTS 48KTS 36KTS 19KTS
DSHP 51KTS 48KTS 36KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 95.8W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 95.8W DIRM12 = 354DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.5N LONM24 = 95.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Those model runs just don't work for me, I'm more visual I guess. They just look like numbers to me!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas 29.78N 94.88W
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Quote:
Those model runs just don't work for me, I'm more visual I guess. They just look like numbers to me!
Me too - but that's all I could find on the Invest at this time. I guess we will have to wait until someone plots them on a graphic.
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The numbers basically say that they think the storm is going to drift north, north eastward and either run out of water onto the Ala/Florida/Ga coastline with a maximum wind speed to be about 55 mph wiinds at about 36 hours out.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I can't tell if there is a slight spin on the SW side of the central thunderstorm complex, or if it's just convergence as the complex moves NNE. Nice shape, and consistancy with the central thunderstorm complex. Symmetrical in the WV images, linked here.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
BTW-long range circulation, between the Low in the BOC and the E Coast High, is pushing rain and thundershowers through SE MS and SW AL.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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should be a TD at 11pm. 1009mb winds 30mph nearly stationary.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED OCT 6 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR .
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS THAT EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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yep they want to wait till morning since they have time. It is a TD even if they dont want to call it that. Winds at buoys show gusts near 41mph and sustained around 30mph. Pressure at 1009mb, there is a low level circulation. Low isnt very organzied but with the winds and pressure supporting a TD I would call it that. Anyways will of course make the call on when it feels necessary.
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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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That tells me that they will not classify it at 11:00. What is going on also tells me what I thought all along and that is most of the rain will be taken east of us here in Houston. When they predict a big rain event, it just doesn't seem to happen. That's ok though because I certainly don't want the flooding.
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas 29.78N 94.88W
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Yeah I have a gut feeling that this MAJOR event will miss us again here in SE Texas and the rain we got today will be the majority of it.
But then I'm no met - so I will just wait and watch on this system. We do need more rain over here in Baytown area - its so dry.
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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Steve-up
Unregistered
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I'm looking at the shot for 1998 type rainfall from SW LA thorough Southern AL depending on the track. As per post at S2K, Channel 4's chief met underdid the rainfall potential at 3-5". There will be areas of 10+ EASILY along the northern Gulf. It all depends on who gets under what training bands. SE Texas should see plenty of weather tomorrow with the onshore flow from the north of the system. The closer one is to the coast, the more likely shot you'll get some 'legit' measurable precipitation. We saw a nice fringe shower early this evening. Most of the local mets have the 30-40% shot up for tomorrow, but I guarantee there will be much more rain than that.
Steve
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3406
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU 07 OCT 2004
...DISCUSSION... edited to conserve space.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N96W ALONG A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS ALSO OFF THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SUGGESTED THAT A LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOME BETTER DEFINED YESTERDAY AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N93W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W.
FARTHER N...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO COASTAL LOUISIANA AS STRONG A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N OVER THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR N GUATEMALA/BELIZE WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS N OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO CANADA. THIS IS BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE W GULF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E ACROSS THE E GULF OVER FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES N AND INTERACTS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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A few hours old but a little change from the last Tally AFD I put up...
.DISCUSSION...AT UPPER LEVELS, WE SEE A LOW PUSHING NNEWD ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY EXTENDING SWD FROM IT INTO
TX. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AND JUST E OF THE
MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NE
GULF JUST S OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. IR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE LATEST TPC
ADVISORY NOW RECOGNIZES THAT THIS AREA HAS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY TUNED.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Oct 07 2004 02:46 AM)
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 397
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
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If that's a tropical depression then
that would have to be the worst looking
tropical depression I've seen.
(of course, that probably doesn't
mean a heck of a lot. with my lack of experience...even so!)
Mark
(Falcons 4 - 0 Umm, did someone forget to tell them they aren't supposed to be good this year?
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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I put up my first new thread So head over there. Probably messed something up but help in the AM will clear it up I am sure.
Thanks to danielw for the help! He already made some touch ups!
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Oct 07 2004 04:15 AM)
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