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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: finally [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33618 - Wed Oct 06 2004 07:23 PM

The Gobal's, in paticualry the GFS is overdoing the cold advection for that ridge that's going to be building in the east, not nearly that cold of weather should be excepted...Another landfalling typhoon in the West pacific, they've had prob. the worst season on record this year. It's all about the placement of the ridge se of the Japan area, and this is very similar for the U.S hurricane landfalling season; the placement of the sub-tropical ridge. Hopefully we'll get a better season next year. The disturbance in the Gulf is slowing moving, getting it's rain all together, this should be some type of hybird storm as convergence seems to be reserved for the northern to eastern portion of the storm, the rest should be a cloud swirl... tropical storm force winds should be excepted, the easterly flow will be quite strong. The east pacific is springing to life some "ghost" storms, due to the mosoon type trough existing in northern south america. Just to add on what HF (I'm like GHWBush I resate the same anwser ) said, a noreaster could present a bit of a problem in about 12 days, might trigger a presitent area of disturbed weather in the gulf of alaska. The SOI is negative as forecasted, this season is turing out to be a very similar one to 2002, this will favor more baroclinic storms as I metioned in another post. There is a wave before the leeward islands that is partially proprogating northward, that could become a strong strom, give them folks up there in the Canadian Martimes some bad weather. There seems to be a pattern existing if you look at some of the old best track charts, once you have a couple of years with bad storms in the sotheast that threat starts moving northward to the mid-atlantic and Canadian Martimes. Look at some of the charts, pretty constient. That's about it, pretty quiet around here that's the way I like it!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas 29.78N 94.88W
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: Keith234]
      #33621 - Wed Oct 06 2004 09:05 PM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Here is the model run for it......



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952004) ON 20041007 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041007 0000 041007 1200 041008 0000 041008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 95.8W 22.5N 96.0W 24.2N 95.0W 26.0N 92.8W
BAMM 21.0N 95.8W 22.1N 96.7W 23.2N 96.9W 24.2N 96.2W
A98E 21.0N 95.8W 21.9N 95.7W 22.8N 95.4W 23.6N 94.8W
LBAR 21.0N 95.8W 22.4N 96.1W 23.8N 96.2W 25.2N 96.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041009 0000 041010 0000 041011 0000 041012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.7N 90.0W 30.9N 83.0W 30.7N 73.9W 28.7N 61.7W
BAMM 25.0N 94.5W 27.0N 90.9W 30.4N 88.6W 33.4N 86.0W
A98E 24.5N 93.9W 28.1N 91.3W 32.1N 87.7W 34.3N 82.4W
LBAR 26.1N 95.5W 26.9N 94.0W 28.2N 92.3W 28.9N 89.6W
SHIP 51KTS 48KTS 36KTS 19KTS
DSHP 51KTS 48KTS 36KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 95.8W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 95.8W DIRM12 = 354DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.5N LONM24 = 95.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: ticka1]
      #33622 - Wed Oct 06 2004 09:10 PM

Those model runs just don't work for me, I'm more visual I guess. They just look like numbers to me!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas 29.78N 94.88W
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: Keith234]
      #33624 - Wed Oct 06 2004 09:21 PM

Quote:

Those model runs just don't work for me, I'm more visual I guess. They just look like numbers to me!




Me too - but that's all I could find on the Invest at this time. I guess we will have to wait until someone plots them on a graphic.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: ticka1]
      #33625 - Wed Oct 06 2004 09:35 PM

The numbers basically say that they think the storm is going to drift north, north eastward and either run out of water onto the Ala/Florida/Ga coastline with a maximum wind speed to be about 55 mph wiinds at about 36 hours out.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33626 - Wed Oct 06 2004 09:43 PM

I can't tell if there is a slight spin on the SW side of the central thunderstorm complex, or if it's just convergence as the complex moves NNE. Nice shape, and consistancy with the central thunderstorm complex. Symmetrical in the WV images, linked here.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

BTW-long range circulation, between the Low in the BOC and the E Coast High, is pushing rain and thundershowers through SE MS and SW AL.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: danielw]
      #33627 - Wed Oct 06 2004 10:02 PM

should be a TD at 11pm. 1009mb winds 30mph nearly stationary.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: scottsvb1]
      #33628 - Wed Oct 06 2004 10:18 PM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED OCT 6 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS THAT EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: danielw]
      #33630 - Wed Oct 06 2004 10:20 PM

yep they want to wait till morning since they have time. It is a TD even if they dont want to call it that. Winds at buoys show gusts near 41mph and sustained around 30mph. Pressure at 1009mb, there is a low level circulation. Low isnt very organzied but with the winds and pressure supporting a TD I would call it that. Anyways NHC will of course make the call on when it feels necessary.

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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: danielw]
      #33631 - Wed Oct 06 2004 10:24 PM

That tells me that they will not classify it at 11:00. What is going on also tells me what I thought all along and that is most of the rain will be taken east of us here in Houston. When they predict a big rain event, it just doesn't seem to happen. That's ok though because I certainly don't want the flooding.

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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas 29.78N 94.88W
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #33635 - Wed Oct 06 2004 10:57 PM


Yeah I have a gut feeling that this MAJOR event will miss us again here in SE Texas and the rain we got today will be the majority of it.

But then I'm no met - so I will just wait and watch on this system. We do need more rain over here in Baytown area - its so dry.

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Steve-up
Unregistered




Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: ticka1]
      #33636 - Wed Oct 06 2004 11:51 PM

I'm looking at the shot for Frances 1998 type rainfall from SW LA thorough Southern AL depending on the track. As per post at S2K, Channel 4's chief met underdid the rainfall potential at 3-5". There will be areas of 10+ EASILY along the northern Gulf. It all depends on who gets under what training bands. SE Texas should see plenty of weather tomorrow with the onshore flow from the north of the system. The closer one is to the coast, the more likely shot you'll get some 'legit' measurable precipitation. We saw a nice fringe shower early this evening. Most of the local mets have the 30-40% shot up for tomorrow, but I guarantee there will be much more rain than that.

Steve


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: Steve-up]
      #33637 - Thu Oct 07 2004 02:13 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU 07 OCT 2004
...DISCUSSION... edited to conserve space.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N96W ALONG A STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS ALSO OFF THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SUGGESTED THAT A LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOME BETTER DEFINED YESTERDAY AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N93W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W.

FARTHER N...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO COASTAL LOUISIANA AS STRONG A HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N OVER THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR N GUATEMALA/BELIZE WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS N OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO CANADA. THIS IS BRINGING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE W GULF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E ACROSS THE E GULF OVER FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES N AND INTERACTS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Invest 95L up for BOC wave [Re: danielw]
      #33638 - Thu Oct 07 2004 02:45 AM

A few hours old but a little change from the last Tally AFD I put up...

.DISCUSSION...AT UPPER LEVELS, WE SEE A LOW PUSHING NNEWD ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY EXTENDING SWD FROM IT INTO
TX. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AND JUST E OF THE
MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NE
GULF JUST S OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. IR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE LATEST TPC
ADVISORY NOW RECOGNIZES THAT THIS AREA HAS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY TUNED.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Oct 07 2004 02:46 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 400
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
if that is a tropical depression then... [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33639 - Thu Oct 07 2004 03:37 AM

If that's a tropical depression then
that would have to be the worst looking
tropical depression I've seen.
(of course, that probably doesn't
mean a heck of a lot. with my lack of experience...even so!)


Mark
(Falcons 4 - 0 Umm, did someone forget to tell them they aren't supposed to be good this year?


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: New Thread.... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #33641 - Thu Oct 07 2004 03:46 AM

I put up my first new thread So head over there. Probably messed something up but help in the AM will clear it up I am sure.

Thanks to danielw for the help! He already made some touch ups!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Thu Oct 07 2004 04:15 AM)


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