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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: October activity [Re: Keith234]
      #34010 - Tue Oct 19 2004 11:59 AM

A Halloween storm? That would be interesting. They don't happen that all that frequently, it seems that it happens about half of the time. In the last 10 years, 5 seasons did not have an active system on Oct 31st. They are 2003, 2000, 1997, 1996 and 1994.

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LONNY307
Unregistered




Re: October activity [Re: James88]
      #34011 - Tue Oct 19 2004 01:07 PM

98L is looking interesting east of the islands. Any model input on it?

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: October activity [Re: LONNY307]
      #34012 - Tue Oct 19 2004 01:56 PM

Some...

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: October activity [Re: James88]
      #34013 - Tue Oct 19 2004 02:39 PM

I don't mean a purely tropical system, most likely some form of a hybrid system. BTW, Storm Copper the link doesn't work for me, anyone else?

Just checked it and it worked. The site is slow to load.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Oct 19 2004 02:41 PM)


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: October activity [Re: Keith234]
      #34014 - Tue Oct 19 2004 02:55 PM

Interesting that the BAMM keeps it at a fairly low latitude and tracks it westward. We'll see. It's future (if it has a present or future) may hinge on the development of the Bomb predicted off the east coast and whether it gets entrained therein or stays to the SW far enough. But then again the stated position 15.6N/58W is 120 hours out. Cheers!!

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: October activity [Re: Keith234]
      #34015 - Tue Oct 19 2004 03:02 PM

??keith i'm not sure how something below 15N is going to be a hybrid system??
anyhow, invest 98L poking up east of the antilles.. heaviest convection out near 45w, weak cyclonic turning at different heights between 50-55w.. all centered around 12-15N. like clark said, SLOW on the uptake if anything can get going.. the whole system should trudge wnw under mild to moderate shear. GFS still trying to develop a low near the sw caribbean in a few days, but taking it west into central america now. still plenty of westpac activity, but that hasn't correllated to upstream activity very well.. works much better in the late summer.
don't think any surprises on the way this week.. if things happen the should be gradual and undramatic.
HF 1859z19october


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: October activity [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34017 - Tue Oct 19 2004 03:51 PM

Time to look back on my forecast and see what happened.


>>...Iíll stay with the flow and guess that weíll see about 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 Intense Hurricanes.

Far too low.

>>Based on everything Iím looking at, it looks as though any trend toward a quiet Gulf year will be again interrupted in 2004...Factoring in some of the analog years seems to indicate a better than average chance for a strong hit on Texas and/or NW Florida.

That was 50/50 (NW FL paid).

Landfall forecast areas:

>>Brownsville, TX to Lafayette, LA = 2 named storm hits and potentially a strong to major hurricane hit.

Wrongo. 1 Tropical storm hit.

>>Lafayette, LA to Pascagoula, MS = 1-2 hits, most likely weaker systems (e.g. Tropical Storms)

Right. 1 storm hit (Matthew)

>>MS/AL line to Cedar Key, FL = 2 named storm hits with the potential for a strong to intense storm between Panama City Beach, FL and Mobile Bay, AL. It should be noted that areas north of there in Southern Georgia are currently experiencing drought conditions. One of the ways out of droughts is through the influx of tropical moisture. However, the drought conditions there are not considered severe at this time.

Good job by me there. We had two (actually 3 with Bonnie) systems go up through that area. The call of a potentially severe storm between Mobile Bay and PCB was pretty good if I don't mind an extra pat on my own back.

>>West Coast of Florida south of Cedar Key = potential for 1 tropical storm or weaker (Cat 1) Hurricane. No definite hit predicted.

Lots of pass-thru activity. Charley had a fairly rare track for the time of year. He was a big-ticket item.

>>FL Keys = Impossible to predict. Based on the NHCís probability tables for active storms (a storm passes within 65 miles of a specific area), one would expect the keys to see a brush by.

Charley blew up between the Keys and SW FL.

>>Homestead, FL to Duval County, FL = Possible impact from a hurricane cutting west beneath anticipated ridging off the SE Coast. No specific hits predicted.

Way off here. I got the "cutting west" part right, but who knew that we'd see serious impacts from two strong hurricanes?

>>GA & SC Coasts = No hits predicted. Possible impacts from Gulf systems coming up from the South.

We definitely had that but we also had Gaston in SC.

>>NC Coast Ė You can never discount coastal North Carolina as it, along with FL and SE LA seems to be at least brushed every year by a system. I donít see any early direct hits but depending on the evolution of the late summer to early fall, itís possible that we could see some coastal impact on the Outer Banks. I do expect there will be several fish spinners during Ďlow tideĒ of the Atlantic Ridge. This will most likely provide good surfing at different points during the hurricane season.

Alex sort of fits this bill.

>>Virginia Coast to Delmarva Peninsula = No anticipated landfalls. Possible impact from storms coming up from the SW.

Got that pretty good.

>>New Jersey = No anticipated landfalls.

Check

>>Long Island through coastal Maine = Potential late season impact if the warm waters off the NC Coast remain intact for most of the summer. Impact could be from phasing later in the season or from a hurricane curving out to sea and clipping the Cape in MA.

Got the curving out TS in Hermine and some other effects from inland storms recurving

>>Canadian Maritimes = 2 anticipated landfalls. Because of late season blocks, itís possible that any system off the east coast of the United States will move N or NNE on its way to distribute heat from the tropics to the north. Bear in mind that the Maritimes extend east to 53W and provide an easy target for a north moving or late curving storm.

A little light there. We had effects from a few storms in the Maritimes, but there was only one real impact (Nicole)
----------------------------------------------------
I think this was my worst landfall forecast BY FAR in the 3 years I've been doing them. It warrants probably a solid "C", but that ain't good enough especially after the success in 2001 and 2002. I'll try harder next year to come up with better ideas.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: October activity [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34018 - Tue Oct 19 2004 03:52 PM

I think there has been some confusion with what I am talking about. The storm that I was metioning was a system quote "popping off the Florida coast" I said this because the PNA is strongly postive and not allowing any strong or sharp trof's digging in, this will eventually break when the the Jet stream fronts build up enough and form some feature will come southward with that strong high forming over the northeast and develop off the Florida coast as a hybrid storm. The cold high will develop probably when that NW jet develops and pulls cold air down to the mid-latidues from the Alaska region. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
October Over? [Re: Keith234]
      #34021 - Tue Oct 19 2004 09:42 PM

Unless and until such time as the WPAC season shuts down (which it ain't doing right now), and with memories of Michelle in 2001 & Mitch in 1998, I'm not ready to start penning any epitaphs for 2004 just yet.

Steve, if the season were to end today, I'd give you better than a "C". One off on named storms, bam on hurricanes, and we all got clobbered on the Majors...the Great Dr. Gray included.

All's good right now, but it wouldn't surprise me to have a little October surprise pop up off the FL coast next week.
Nothing has been "as usual" this summer/fall.
Keep your eyes to the skies, folks...nothing is over until John Belushi says it's over!

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Oct 19 2004 10:10 PM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: October Over? [Re: LI Phil]
      #34022 - Wed Oct 20 2004 12:02 AM

I'm not writing off the season. I expect the Caribbean will get hit, and there's always the possibility of a hybrid to hit FL even well into November. But for the most part, I think the rest of the United States is pretty much out the woods. There's also the slight chance of a southern forming winter storm early too that could take on quasi-tropical characteristics. We'll just have to wait and see.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: October Over? [Re: LI Phil]
      #34023 - Wed Oct 20 2004 12:21 AM

Quote:

Keep your eyes to the skies, folks...nothing is over until John Belushi says it's over!




If I saw John Belushi ... and he told me it was over... I don't think i'd think he was talkin about hurricanes...

But truly... i hope the rest of the season is as quiet as this last bit has been.

Enough is enough.

'shana
waiting for Fall to reappear ... 95F is too hot for this late in October...

--------------------
"If the pen is mightier than the sword and a picture is worth a thousand words, is a camera a weapon of mass destruction? "


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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: October Over? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #34024 - Wed Oct 20 2004 10:06 AM

New 98L I do not think it will do much, as the westerlies are strong.

I hope the season ends like this, nothing but fish spinners

Mitch...


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: October Over? [Re: MoparMitch]
      #34032 - Thu Oct 21 2004 03:19 PM

It's probably not going to do much, but check out the flare-up of thunderstorms over the east Caribbean. They now cover a pretty extensive area.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: October Over? [Re: James88]
      #34034 - Thu Oct 21 2004 06:13 PM

Shear monsta will take care of any possible development of the convection in the Caribbean.

However, conditions are forecasted to improve development chances in the coming week-10 days. JB thinks we may need to watch the Atlantic as well as the Caribbean.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: October Over? [Re: LI Phil]
      #34035 - Thu Oct 21 2004 06:35 PM

Sounds like things may heat up soon then. The last gasp of the season.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: October Over? [Re: James88]
      #34036 - Thu Oct 21 2004 07:04 PM

Just for fun, I ran the loop of the Caribbean backwards and of course, it looked like a huge low was forming! But it is weird how right now if you run it backwards it looks like the weather at the beginning of the season, sort of.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: October Over? [Re: James88]
      #34044 - Fri Oct 22 2004 09:07 PM

Well we may have one more system come into play if that pulse empties out into the atlatic, that is now present in the pacific. It seems as though that when there is a strongly negaive PNA, there is a oscillatory motion of the atmospher present; are correlated in some way? But with that trof diving in ahead of all that convection, a whole lotta nothing is going to happen at least for the upcoming days...but it will place a weak frontal boundary that will be presistent, maybe we could get some late season develop there.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: October activity [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34050 - Fri Oct 22 2004 10:12 PM

Ok, who turned the storm making machine off?

It's so nice to have a quiet October.


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: October activity [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #34056 - Sat Oct 23 2004 02:17 PM

The area of disturbed weather to the NW of Bermuda is looking interesting:-

Atlantic


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Otto? [Re: James88]
      #34057 - Sat Oct 23 2004 04:11 PM

Well, the system is now listed as 99L, so we may have Otto pretty soon.

99L


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