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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Bermuda
Unregistered




Re: Activity Near Bermuda [Re: Rabbit]
      #34113 - Mon Oct 25 2004 03:56 PM

Ok. I see the one system out by Bermuda....what about the other one between Bermuda and the US?

Looks like the MJO may be beginning to influence our basin....


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
mjo [Re: Bermuda]
      #34114 - Mon Oct 25 2004 03:58 PM

do you have a link to a MJO site, thanks in advance

bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: mjo [Re: LoisCane]
      #34115 - Mon Oct 25 2004 04:32 PM

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_mjo_index/mjo_index.html

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: mjo [Re: LI Phil]
      #34116 - Mon Oct 25 2004 06:16 PM

Well, the Caribbean system is now 90L.

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bobbi
Unregistered




hanging in there [Re: James88]
      #34134 - Wed Oct 27 2004 01:35 PM

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
This is weird [Re: bobbi]
      #34147 - Thu Oct 28 2004 06:33 PM

A recent glance at the GFS model run, brought to my attention a disturbance orignating from the tropics and riding it's way up to the Florida coast area. Could this be a ture tropical entity or a trof deepening as a result of a pressure difference? run:00Z model: GFS,map type: surface percipatation.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Caribbean Update [Re: Keith234]
      #34149 - Fri Oct 29 2004 03:43 AM

Keith, GFS always "bears watching", but the latest update isn't indicating any tropical systems moving Northward.
The 850mb 15*C line extends to most all of the Gulf Coast and even into the GOM at one point. The mets here can give you a better handle on tropical systems and the 15*C line, but I would think that would make the air to cool and dry for a tropical system to sustain itself. BTW 15*C is 59*F, for conversion.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/ten_s_loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_850_su_loop.shtml

TWC is watching an enlarging area of moderate to deep convection centered near 15.0N / 75.0W.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 29 OCT 2004
....TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA ALONG 76W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. A 2324 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA AND AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE OVER THE E/CNTRL CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND THE WAVE AXIS ITSELF IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 73W-77W.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/180.jpg
The black dots on the ramsdis shots are from the lightning in the system!


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Caribbean Update [Re: danielw]
      #34150 - Fri Oct 29 2004 06:47 AM

That complex is very intense, looks like some shear is on it but if that trof axis sufficently cross's land, then we may be in for a rude awakening. Not much steering currents around in the Carribbean now, but maybe we'll get some type of trof digging down and pull it up, the area is known for things like that. Or maybe it will become some sort of hybrid, it was dumping 4 inches of rain ride off of Florida's coast. I also noticed that the month of Novemember for Florida was suppose to be under the assumption that above average percipatation would be taking place. Does the model run on this bias or guidance?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Caribbean Update [Re: Keith234]
      #34151 - Fri Oct 29 2004 08:54 AM

I am headed down to Belize/Honduras on Tuesday/Wednesday for a cruise. I am slightly concerned about that large blob of convection sitting in the Caribbean. I'm too busy packing to look too much into things...so what do you all make of it? Am I going to have a cruise to remember?

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bobbi
Unregistered




Re: Caribbean Update [Re: Keith234]
      #34152 - Fri Oct 29 2004 11:36 AM

needs to hang in a little longer..inch slowly to the west and a drop better environment, thanks

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Caribbean Update [Re: Domino]
      #34155 - Fri Oct 29 2004 02:39 PM

You should be fine if it doesn't hit the island, no duh But if you here anything, leave as soon as you can. The sky drops cars of rain, remember Jeanne. Just be smart and make careful moves; that said have a great vacation!
Keith

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Caribbean Update [Re: Keith234]
      #34156 - Fri Oct 29 2004 02:55 PM

...New Thread...head on over...

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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