Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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A strong low pressure system at the tail end of an old front is beginning to acquire some tropical characteristics and could become a subtropical storm on Sunday. The next name on the list is Otto. The system is located just to the north northwest of Bermuda and it is moving to the east at about 12mph. Wind shear in the area should remain light through Tuesday morning, so additional intensification is indeed possible. Current winds at Hamilton are out of the west southwest at 26mph gusting to 32mph and the sea level pressure is down to 1000mb.
Other areas of activity near the Leeward Islands and north of Panama are disorganized but they are also in areas of weak shear. Could be something to watch in a day or two.
ED
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey, ED!
Thx for the new thread. Been watching this one (see previous posts) since Tuesday...
I'm not changing my tune...going to go 50/50 on "Otto" being named, even as an "STS".
Never the less, won't affect the USA, except for some serious winds for Cape Cod & Maybe (stressing MAYBE) for slightly further west.
Remember, anyone still reading, the season still has a month and a week to go, so it's not over yet (although WE all probably would agree it's fine if it shuts down now). Next up for ED is to go over the "preseason" predictions and determine who "guessed best". Otherwise, looks clean and green for the next several days...thankfully!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Note of slight interest. Recon has been flying training missions, in the FL Keys and Southern FL peninsula area since late Friday.
The good news is, All of the flight level (767-800dekameter) winds are from the NW to the N. 310degrees to 360degrees. Winds range from 19 to 36 kts this afternoon.
Looks like a little mid level protection/ cool air for FL for the time being. All flt lvl temps in the -5 to -7C degree range. Temp/ dewpoint spreads were 11 to 14 degrees below the air temps.
With the above mentioned system, thanks ED and Phil, progged to move toward the East. The main concern will be the cool front currently swinging through the MS/ AL/ LA area into FL and the GOM.
Friend of mine working offshore, 150 miles S of New Orleans, said the Gulf was flat and hot yesterday. No surface wind blowing and unseasonably warm.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Updated 2340Z- 7:40pm EDT
NRL now has system classified as investigation.
99LINVEST.40kts-996mb-356N-673W
Satellite Systems Divisions at 1745Z-1:45pm EDT Saturday
23/1745 UTC 34.3N 67.7W ST1.5/1.5 92 -- Atlantic Ocean
ST 1.5/1.5 would indicate a subtropical system. AT the time of observation.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY TODAY...  editor
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
A STRONG STORM CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/NWATL/IR4/20.jpg
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND THE AZORES IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
AND YET...ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
I thought the season was Over!
Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 23 2004 08:19 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Updated 0016Z-8:16pm EDT Saturday
23/2345 UTC 34.1N 65.2W ST2.5/2.5 99 -- Atlantic Ocean
ST 2.5/2.5 indicates a subtropical (cold core) system. At the time of observation.
http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/satell...ges=1&clf=1
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Wow!! Every day it's nothing and more nothing, and now look! Wonder how it'll turn out? Although it was nice to start to get back to normal, it's been rather dull. Since I'm learning, I'll have to read about the past late season storms.
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When it rains, it pours...
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Thank goodness nothing's in the Gulf...upper winds are benign there for now. Think we'll probably see a subtropical storm out of the low north of Bermuda, but that's it. Nothing else out there is looking very appealing at the current time.
Happy Birthday Clark!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 24 2004 02:20 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Invest 99 continues Northward movement.
SSD observations at 0545Z indicating the subtropical system off of Bermuda is moving N, based on latest lat/ longs.
Dvorak estimates remain at ST 2.5/ 2.5
Nrl Satellite location at 0545Z
20041024.0545.99LINVEST.40kts-996mb-339N-660W
and SSD satellite location at 0545Z-
24/0545 UTC 34.7N 65.1W ST2.5/2.5 99 -- Atlantic Ocean
Never noticed 'that' much of a difference in the coordinates among 2 agencies.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Just woke up to see a storm sitting off the east coast the size of New York. That band containing all of that moisture from the tropics plus the cold front, is really going generate some cloud development. There is a ULL imbedded in the band containing the moisture, and it seems that the main feature has sufficent low level clouds but they are at best sparse. Though, 99L does have some good vorticity and good divergence in the upper levels...So I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will be classified today as a STS but with increasing shear on the march and forcing, I think it will reamin classified for a short time...not to confident
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Happy Birthday Clark!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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belated happy bday, clark. don't tell me you're 24.. that's mighty close to moi. mine got by w/o fanfare a week ago.. it happens.
99L looks spiffy, has satelite classification support, but i haven't looked at the phase-analysis info or anything... it looks fully occluded at least. SSTs out there are warm enough.. barely. bad maritime weather is the only story.. it's neat to go far down the name list, an otto palindrome, but likes to ignore stuff and i'm tired of fussing about how they do unless it's to state the extremely obvious.
got an inkling we'll see another one out of the deep tropics next week or two. makes things up, but with some of the stronger highs coming down in the east over the coming days i'd say a good low in the sw caribbean is a fair bet.
all in all, october is getting by w/o trouble. winter not trying to assert itself either.. enjoying the pleasant fall weather here in s.c.
HF 1946z24october
Belated Happy Birthday HF!
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 24 2004 07:19 PM)
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Good analysis, HF.
P.S. - A belated happy birthday, Clark.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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That's an interesting rule...have heard it somewhere before. Anyway, I still don't feel we could have one more storm, it just doesn't seem probably at least for now. Maybe later, around Novemember 10ish, when the is emptying out in the Atlantic and everything seems delayed this year so why not?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Thanks James, HF, and Phil for the birthday wishes -- nope, not 24 this time around HF, just 21.
To comment on a couple of things around...
* Danny -- the difference in the locations could well be explained by the QuikSCAT wind field from the storm or from weak vortices rotating around the system. It looked/looks impressive on satellite, but the QuikSCAT winds showed a somewhat weirdly elongated trough out of the northeast side of the main center. With weak vortices rotating around the storm from time to time, an objective analysis technique may well pick up on a smaller vortex if there doesn't appear to be a fully "closed" main center of circulation, accounting for the difference in position from the two agencies. At least that's my best guess.
* HF, the phase analyses all show a symmetric yet shallow warm-core structure with this storm. This is indicative of a hybrid system with subtropical characteristics. Satellite appearence isn't as impressive tonight as last night, but it's still pretty good. Scatterometer winds aren't very high with the system, but the wind profile is such that the strongest winds are both near the center as well as well-removed from the center -- a good 35kt from the center to locations a couple of hundred miles out, especially west and south. Again, this is indicative of a hybrid/subtropical structure. I think the is missing this one, but it's understandable considering everything else that's gone on this year. Talking to one of the forecasters, they've got their plates full with a lot of stuff right now.
As I was telling Danny though, you could make the case for 4-5 subtropical storms this year alone. This one, Nicole, the one directly after it in the East Atlantic, the May Haiti storm, and the Mediterranean low just after the main influx of activity -- all have had similar structures for at least a day and were at least looked at by the . Oh well -- it's picking nits at this point, but add in 4 subtropical storms and, if you really want to, a name for the storm that Lisa merged with and you get 5 extra storms...taking us to 19 on the year.
What a season it's been nonetheless, though.
As an aside or two -- in one of the other forums, I'm going to post a couple of pictures of the Escambia Bay Bridge that I took 2 weeks ago right after it re-opened in Pensacola, and I saw an interesting shirt today while eating lunch. On the front, it said "FLORIDA HURRICANE TOUR 2004" with a picture of Florida and the 4 major storms that went through, while on the back, like a concert listing, it had , , , and Jeanne alone with locations and dates. Got a kick out of it -- something that works now but wasn't so good near the time of the storm.
Alas, it's nice to have some quiet tropics for now.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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0745Z ( 0345am EDT) Update on 99L.
NRL current position estimate, wind and pressure.
99LINVEST.40kts-992mb-329N-606W
SW N ATLC...
997 MB GALE CENTER NE OF THE AREA NEAR 33N60W WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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does anyone think this will be Otto at 11?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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If it can clear land, what about the activity north of S. America?
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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JB thinks that if the system can reach 15N 70W, it's got a decent shot...definitely time to issue a bear watch.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Looks very good on the orcas site. Thanks for reminding me to look. Reminds me again of the first waves of the season. Funny how the end can be so much like the beginning.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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