Clark
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Yup Phil, the phase analyses have finally trended warm core enough to qualify as a tropical cyclone. It's looked good for a couple of days now on satellite, but only yesterday did the system become warm-core throughout the troposphere (as opposed to in the lower levels, which it had been - at least weakly - since Saturday), while today it became even moreso warm-core. We've probably got an early December meanderer on our hands, meaning I wouldn't expect much out of this system. Then again, we all know what 2004 has brought...
Of course, Otto forms just as the season's data was started to be archived on our machines...so if the phase analysis & model output pages have been slow lately, you all know why...go figure!
Should be one for the fish and a nice treat here in the holidays.
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Clark
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I forgot to mention some comments about the graphics -- I like option 3, but primarily for the storms that are not meandering about, moving in a loop, or hardly moving at all -- under those circumstances, option 3 becomes very confusing.
I like the arguments to include wind swath, but that is an even tougher aspect to forecast (though they do it anyway) and adds even more uncertainty when you consider the average track errors are around 200mi at 3-4 days; adding ~200mi on each side of the circle/cone complicates things, I think. For storms closer to the coast, a smaller graphic projecting the wind swath -- like 's -- would be very useful.
I don't like option 2, as it solely shows points and the swath. Option 1 -- the current option -- is a feasible option, as is option 2 if you remove the points altogether. But, for a society that likes certainty -- and for the sake of improving forecasts down the line -- I think that'd be tough to swallow. Lines like the Weather Channel has are a good compromise.
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danielw
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Ricreig, are you reading my mind from FL?? I heard the story about the 'New Graphics' on the drive to work tonight. First thing that crossed my mind, was that /TPC liked 's maps so much they decided to use them. 
Second thought was. They not only need to Change the track plot maps, but they way they average the info.
Hurricane had made his course change, with very minor flucuations, a FULL 12 hours, AHEAD of the decision to include the Ft Myers and Punta Gorda area.
Take each position. Plot it. AND then connect the line or lines. If it's moving NE then warn the folks NE of the storm not the ones NW of the storm where the "computer" averages the track plot.
I'll get back on subject at hand. I agree with Richard on the 'circles'. Too vague in definition. Could be easily confused with storm getting larger, also.
Skeetobite's maps ROCK . If anyone can improve the maps, I would look to him first.
I do think, and will comment to , the track heading formula needs a MAJOR adjustment. Sorry Punta Gorda had to be the 'test city.'
In short. There are 4:49 left in the 2004 'cane season. From my house. Using GMT, it was over 1:11 ago.
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Ricreig
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Quote:
Ricreig, are you reading my mind from FL?? I heard the story about the 'New Graphics' on the drive to work tonight. First thing that crossed my mind, was that /TPC liked 's maps so much they decided to use them.
I seriously doubt the has ever seen, much less evaluated Skeeters graphics. I would hope that a few of us could write our comments on the proposals directly to the at the address they provided for comment, giving our thoughts both about their proposals, but a URL to Skeeterts graphics with lucid and compelling reasons they should consider his format or if they don't like them, at least adopt the format as a compromise. Also, there is nothing wrong with a combination of graphics, the detail of Skeeters when the storm is within 12-24 hrs or less of landfall, or the from 1-3 days, and their current graphics for greater than 3 days using the 'cone' of uncertainty. Whatever they do *may* depend on IF and HOW MUCH *WE* provide feedback not just yes or no, but why.
trackchart@noaa.gov
should get a bunch of meaningful responses and alternatives from us.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Wed Dec 01 2004 01:38 AM)
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danielw2
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Wow Richard. Your ideas are getting RED HOT! We only have about 66 days to comment to .
If my ?memory? serves me correct. ED went to a conference of sorts. Something like 3 of the first 6 slides/ powerpoints were Skeet's maps. I'll have to find that post. So some of them are aware of the maps, and I'm sure they are aware of .
BTW-cold front pushed through here at 00Z. Signaling the "end" of the "Season from Hell"( tm LIPhil).
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Ricreig
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Quote:
Wow Richard. Your ideas are getting RED HOT! We only have about 66 days to comment to .
If my ?memory? serves me correct. ED went to a conference of sorts. Something like 3 of the first 6 slides/ powerpoints were Skeet's maps. I'll have to find that post. So some of them are aware of the maps, and I'm sure they are aware of .
BTW-cold front pushed through here at 00Z. Signaling the "end" of the "Season from Hell"( tm LIPhil).
I don't recall such a post, but it is quite possible it slipped through one of my cracks (in the head) so if you find such a post, I'd be interested in a pointer to it. As to the time remaining for comment; We all need to comment BEFORE we forget, deadlines have a way of slipping our mind especially given that hurricane maps won't be on our minds too much during the next month or two given Christmas and bowl games and the like.... If the *has* heard of , that is great, but it needs to hear from us all and ASAP, and again, with meaningful comments and examples for them to consider.
FWIW, we got the cold front here in Orlando too, a bit of lightning, some wind and cooler temps. I would agree, it isn't just the calander that says the hurricane season is over. From here on and for a while, we will call whatever develops 'wnter storms' or 'noreasters' or some such 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Ricreig
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My repsonse to the request for comment: Missing are the examples I supplied in graphics format.....
To whom it may concern,
Thank you for the opportunity to comment on your proposals for changes in your Tropical Cyclone forecast graphics.
First, a comment on your #1, the current format. Basically, it is a good tool in the 3+ day forecast range when the forecast errors are relatively large. It does show the most probable path AND it shows the estimate about possible errors in the forecast. What it lacks is better depiction of two additional periods of interest, the 1-3 day forecast and the less than 1 day forecast.
As to your #2 candidate, the public will lose confidence in the forecast from the because of the emphasis of 'we don't know where it is going, but it will probably be somewhere near here, plus or minus a state or two' image the 2nd candidate implies. Don't remove the centerline which suggests your best guess.
I truly do NOT like #3 because while it addresses the concept of an area of effect, what it is really saying is 'the storm center will be *somewhere* inside of this circle but we don't have a clue as to where. Further, it implies that the storm is intensifying and covering a larger area as time progresses. That isn't necessarily true and I don't think you want to imply the storm is changing size with time that the circles of confusion seem to imply.
I would like to suggest another possibility. One graphics format does not necessarily fit all. To wit:
Given that your current format does a good job in the 3+ day forecast time range, I suggest it be retained relatively unchanged.
From 1 to 3 days, the forecast, while still having margins of error, should have become much more accurate and the path representing the probable track should be less likely to be so inaccurate that people shouldn't be looking more closely at the likely area of effect from the storm. During that time period, I suggest changing to the graphics format which show the forecast track AND likely windfields in each quadrant. An example (becuase I don't have copies of earlier storms) their depiction of TS Otto:
[image]
During the less than one day period of the forecast, it is likely that major changes in your forecast path will be infrequent so a format showing some detail is in order. Skeetobyte.com has excellent graphics that probably saved lives during this last period by answering the quest ion "Yeah, but will it affect ME?" questions based upon your official forecast. Because it showed major roads and highways, the public could relate to both the path and the windfield in relationship to their own position. His depicitions convinced many of my neighbors to evacuate their mobile homes when they realized the storm was not a point or a line, but an AREA. In this time frame, your forecast graphics should emphasize that aspect much more than your current format does. I would seriously suggest you consider the maps at :
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/
Below are a few thumbnail graphics from a recent storm. His graphics are excellent in the less than 24 hour to current time range. I sincerely recommend that you visit that site to see what was done to your official forecasts and how the detail and depicitons of your official forecasts 'talk to' a lot of people, answering their questions about if the storm will affect 'them'. The third thumbnail was one I used to convince my neighbors that the storm wasn't just a point or a line, but an entire area and just how far the storm force winds extended relative to us (Orlando in this case) and emphasizing that at landfall, we would already be under TS force winds and preparations and possible evacuations needed to be done BEFORE the storm go to us or even made landfall. The standard graphics simply do not convey this important, potentially lifesaving information.
[images and thumbnails]
In summary, consider a three tier graphics format. One size does NOT fit all nor is any one of the proposed graphics solutions good at depicting all of the important time ranges in the forecasts.
Again, thank you for the opportunity to comment and I hope these comments will lead you in the direction of providing more, not less information and additionally convey the concept of areas of effect in addition to the points of center fall positions.
Richard Creighton
Member #15 of flhurricane.com but not a principal of the website.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Clark
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I'd be willing to bank that the , or at least some people there, have heard of all of the popular hurricane tracking sites. There are likely people who peruse this and other forums to gauge public perception and just because they are tropical storm nuts. The high quality of content on this site and others is likely the main drawing card. But, I don't have any real verification of that, so it's just surmising on my part.
I have submitted my comments and hope they will be of some use to them as well.
As an aside, regarding conferences, it'll probably be late 2005 or early 2006 before we see large amounts of research into the tracks and intensities of the 2004 tropical season come out for presentation. Max Mayfield is giving a talk in early January at the AMS conference about the season, while several presentations -- mostly on tornadoes and impacts of the season's storms -- will be given during the remainder of the conference, but all in all not a lot. Just a heads-up.
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danielw
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Richard, you are awesome! You are quite an Instructor. "Ever thought about teaching?" Something like Novell or Linux!
Seriously, we all need to comment to . Whether it be your own ideas, as Richard has, or a variation/ reenforcement of an idea you seen here or somewhere else.
For those that don't know. Richard IS an instructor, in Novell and Linux. He is blessed with the ability to teach, and that he does. He can paint a 3D picture with words.
Thanks Richard. Folks, don't forget to send your comments to .
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Ricreig
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Quote:
I'd be willing to bank that the , or at least some people there, have heard of all of the popular hurricane tracking sites
You are likely correct but I have learned it is best to NOT take things for granted, especially when any part of government is involved. The working 'peons', the grunt level workers are often tops in their fields, and higlhly motived and competant. It is the management and bureaucratic levels I am wary of. Anyway, I'm glad you sent in your comments....I hope we didn't 'undo' each other too badly
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
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This is a copy of an ADMIN post by ED.-danielw
""Just FYI 10/30/04 10:43 PM
Last Wednesday we had our local AMS luncheon and one of the forecasters from the Melbourne NWS office gave a presentation on the 3 hurricanes that influenced central Florida this year. The slide show started off with two of 's map images. Proper credit was given to his web site. (BTW, they check our site often during the season and really like the quality of the info that is available here.)
Cheers,
ED""
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Ricreig
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Quote:
This is a copy of an ADMIN post by ED.-danielw
""Just FYI 10/30/04 10:43 PM
Last Wednesday we had our local AMS luncheon and one of the forecasters from the Melbourne NWS office gave a presentation on the 3 hurricanes that influenced central Florida this year. The slide show started off with two of 's map images....
Dan, Thanks for the reprint, I did miss that post and I am glad to hear that at least in the MLB area, we (this site) are thought highly of and that Skeeter's efforts gained the recognition they deserve. I am dead serious about the value of his depiction of the official forecasts. I *know* they caused a number of my neighbors to reconsider staying in their trailers as Charlie and approached. They had NO IDEA from either TV or the or newspapers just how big these storms were, how powerful and how far away from the 'line' they had to be to be reasonably safe from the worst of the damage. One of them did NOT have a trailer to come home to after Charlie. I credit directly with saving at least one life or limb and if that was all he ever accompolished, he would have still done his 'duty' above and beyond.... If the can be convinced to pack as much info into their graphics as Skeeter does, and if our comments in any way result in a positive change in this area, then I feel the savings of life and limb would be multiplied many times over what my personal, local crusade fortified by Skeeters maps, ever could accompolish. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, THIS board, and the people on/in it are the best and save lives and property every year. Not too many web sites can say that!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
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Trust me, , Accuwx, et. al. have trolls on all these sites, including pissant sites like HCW...I'm quite convinced that, while Joe B. gets a tad upset when, ahem, some members post his thoughts, proper credit is ALWAYS given...hell, that drives traffic to their site (shout out to JB! You rock!!)
It would not at all surprise me if Mr. Jonathon Grant, AKA , gets a bunch of well deserved business, whether it be from any of our members, or even the (or heaven forbid, accuwx). We all owe a huge debt of gratitude to Skeet for his very valued maps...
Didja really think 2004 would go out with a whimper??? I mean, after the Season From Hell [tm ME], why not send this one into the record books with a named storm on the official last day of the season...after giving us all a much needed respite from mid-October till now.
To everyone who posted this season, my heart goes out to all y'all, and if we never ever approach a season like this, I for one will be most grateful.
I urge everyone to post their "real" e-mail address in their profiles, so we can keep up during the next seven months!!!
And don't forget to check back here...this may be a hurricane site, but it is also a weather site, and the weather doesn't have an off-season.
Too all who supported me during one of my darkest hours, extra shouts to you all. To John, Mike & Ed, for having faith in me to moderate, I thank you. To my co-mods, Danny, Coop & HanKFranK, you guys "completed" the !
To our mets and might as well be mets (shout out to Scottsvb especially), and to those with whom we had a "special connection" this season, peace & cheers.
I even think one of our favorite posters from a certain city in Alabama will be "careful what one wishes for." We sure learned that in spades this year!!!
To all the new members, welcome aboard. Never be afraid to post or ask what you consider to be a stupid question...there are no such things...this is where we all learn TOGETHER!
I can't name all the names of course, but all the regulars, Steve, Bobbi, Frank P., Colleen, Scottsvb, Luis, Rich B, Richieweather, Kevin, Ricreig, JK, Tom, 52255225, (god I'm gonna forget too many here), Droop, Flcane, clydew, revup, richiesurfs, Mr. Spock, Clark, rule, "Guppie" and all her incarnations, BillD, Flarebel, recmod...I'm forgetting more than I should, but I'm tired...If I didn't give ya a shout, it's not for lack of trying...even you Rabbit!!! And some of our younger members, who I hope someday become mets...Keith234, Spike & James88!!! Cheers.
Every one stay safe, don't leave the boards permanently, and do drop in occasionally during the off season...
T Minus 0:52 on the Season From Hell!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
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Actually, no, we didn't really undo each other -- I essentially expounded upon my comments earlier in the thread, including a bit about the maps from . I think that they could be a very useful tool within the 24hr (prior to landfall) time frame, where track errors are generally not as large, to give people not near the center an idea of what sort of winds they can expect. So no, it's not an "undo"ing at all!
There are some pretty cool people in the government, whether at the , at a university, or working for some aspect of the NWS -- you might be surprised at who potentially comes around these parts.....
And just another 37 minutes left in the season -- feels like a New Year's countdown, just a month early! I second Phil's notion of keeping in touch -- I'll be around from time to time. Maybe we'll get another S. Atlantic storm, just for tracking's sake, or something unexpected elsewhere. Can't recall a Southeast Pacific storm, for one...
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TRO
Unregistered
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000
WHXX01 KWBC 010645
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM OTTO (AL162004) ON 20041201 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041201 0600 041201 1800 041202 0600 041202 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.9N 50.8W 30.5N 51.0W 28.7N 51.1W 27.6N 50.1W
BAMM 31.9N 50.8W 31.0N 51.1W 29.5N 51.8W 28.1N 52.2W
A98E 31.9N 50.8W 31.7N 50.5W 30.3N 50.4W 29.1N 49.6W
LBAR 31.9N 50.8W 31.8N 50.1W 31.1N 49.5W 30.5N 48.6W
SHIP 50KTS 51KTS 49KTS 46KTS
DSHP 50KTS 51KTS 49KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041203 0600 041204 0600 041205 0600 041206 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.9N 47.7W 26.7N 42.0W 25.1N 38.1W 20.9N 38.9W
BAMM 26.5N 51.8W 23.5N 50.4W 21.0N 51.7W 20.3N 54.4W
A98E 28.3N 48.6W 27.4N 46.3W 26.7N 44.3W 24.3N 43.2W
LBAR 29.6N 46.9W 28.4N 41.8W 29.1N 37.1W 29.9N 35.1W
SHIP 40KTS 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 40KTS 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.9N LONCUR = 50.8W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 31.7N LONM12 = 51.0W DIRM12 = 10DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 30.9N LONM24 = 50.5W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 150NM
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Ricreig
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Quote:
I will send a comment. But I don't know what I'll say exactly at this point.
I'm adamant about them changing their storm headings. The averaging that the computer does puts people in danger without reason. A computer can't rationalize danger. But the program can be changed to Flag course changes. Shouldn't be that hard. Take out the averaging formula and show the current heading, with a small window for changes.
Danny,
Perhaps you recognize a piece of your PM to me. Let me just say this: Just say what you just said to me and add *why* you feel that way. Even if they don't change the graphics themselves, perhaps they will reevaluate their proceedure because of your comment AND explanation.
BTW, thanks for the kudos in your post.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Tropicbird
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Thank YOU for everything, LI Phil. You got a doozy of a year to start being moderator here, and you did a great job! This site is such a wonderful source of information and intelligent analysis -I turned a couple friends onto it last September and they're now converts, although we all just lurked quietly to follow along with what's going on. When the media was all worked up and everybody was going crazy during the storm prep frenzy last fall I found this site very calming.
AOL yesterday had a blurb about the end of SFH '04; the stats were $42 billion in damage and 170 or so killed, I guess the figure was for the US only. Glad to see this season end, too, although it's impossible not to think about it since whenever I leave my home county I drive into the swath of one or another of the storms and see how much people that live in the hardest hit areas still have to deal with. I hope everybody out there has a peaceful winter and can heal from all this, and I'll wish for you, LI Phil, a fun non-destructive blizzard!
To everybody who makes what it is, thanks!
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Ricreig
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Well said. Very well said!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Yes, thank you everyone here at . From the regular members to the mods to the mets. Everyone contributed in their own way during this crazy hurricane season. I'll definitely be checking in from time to time during the rest of the year, and starting June 1st, 2005 I'll be back with some regularity. 
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Check the Surf
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Man, I was wondering why my ears were burning!
Here’s my vote (users should be able to zoom in on their area for street level graphics):
Quote:
Best of all scenarios: Use 's graphics, superimpose the wind fields and put the dotted 'cone of uncertainty' lightly around it all
-Richard
Some quick notes on the Skeeobite map project. First, let me say this has been an enjoyable and productive hobby. I am grateful for the opportunity to deploy any talents that may be helpful to others. Thanks to everyone for your feedback and kind comments.
NOAA, (specifically) , NASA, Disney, Busch Gardens - et al, the Governors’ office in Tallahassee, every military base along the coast from Texas to Virginia and all military bases inland in Florida used .com daily during the hurricane season.
None of this would have been possible without . Prior to moving to Florida in July, I bookmarked this website and followed the discussion daily since early February.
I have contacted the and offered to meet with them to discuss the lessons learned from ordinary folks and professionals who used our maps. If you view all of the archived maps, you will see how they evolved during the season based on feedback from the users of , end users and meteorologists all over the country.
Thanks everyone.
Jonathon Grant
Lakeland, FL
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