MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Otto has formed, on the last day of the 2004 Hurricane Season, and is out to sea, ending what the most amazing, nerve wracking, destructive modern hurricane season in a good while.
Four storms impacted Florida, all hurricanes. Crossing areas in Florida that have been untouched by hurricanes in many years... multiple times in one year. Blue roofs became commonplace, bridges washed out, long beaches became drop offs, and power being out almost became routine. For many, Florida and its people have changed after this season, which hopefully will never be repeated again like this. However the potential is still there and starting June 1st, 2005 we'll watch again.
Thanks to all the help I received this year, including from those willing to help moderate, and those who contributed bandwidth, money, tshirts, cds, notes, prayers, and maps!
Next season will bring a few changes to the site, but I'm aiming for the better.
Otto is a farewell track for this season, the fact October and most of November had nothing to track was a welcome relief.
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, ,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Yes indeed! Good day my peeps 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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The following post came from Skeeter in the previous thread. I wanted to repost it here to give him an extra special holiday shout.
Awesome dude, just awesome! Good luck with the ! ROCKS. THANK YOU MIKE & JOHN FOR THIS SITE!!!
Here's Skeeter's post:
Man, I was wondering why my ears were burning!
Here’s my vote (users should be able to zoom in on their area for street level graphics):
Quote:
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Best of all scenarios: Use 's graphics, superimpose the wind fields and put the dotted 'cone of uncertainty' lightly around it all
-Richard
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Some quick notes on the Skeeobite map project. First, let me say this has been an enjoyable and productive hobby. I am grateful for the opportunity to deploy any talents that may be helpful to others. Thanks to everyone for your feedback and kind comments.
NOAA, (specifically) , NASA, Disney, Busch Gardens - et al, the Governors’ office in Tallahassee, every military base along the coast from Texas to Virginia and all military bases inland in Florida used .com daily during the hurricane season.
None of this would have been possible without . Prior to moving to Florida in July, I bookmarked this website and followed the discussion daily since early February.
I have contacted the and offered to meet with them to discuss the lessons learned from ordinary folks and professionals who used our maps. If you view all of the archived maps, you will see how they evolved during the season based on feedback from the users of , end users and meteorologists all over the country.
Thanks everyone.
Jonathon Grant
Lakeland, FL
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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susheedoll
Unregistered
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Thanks a bunch for the timely info and updates...awesome job this year! 
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
The following post came from Skeeter in the previous thread. I wanted to repost it here to give him an extra special holiday shout.
Phil, thanks for reposting this. I saw it at the end of the other thread and hoped it would end up in the 'current pile'.
Skeeter, one question surfaces: What, if any, response did the give you regarding your offer to talk to them about their graphics and your involvement, if any? I hope it was positive, and we'll all be interested in the outcome from such talks.
You certainly have the majority of the members of *this* board on your support wagon and I think that all who know you, or of you, offer their thanks for your efforts during this past season. I pray that you can continue to provide the service next year, OR/AND that you can induce the to adopt some of your services (hopefully for compensation) in their official forecast graphics.
Phil, given that many of the 'regulars' are not online now the end of the season has past, what do you think of an E-Mail to those that posted their stats in the profiles, that suggest they visit the and offer their suggestions and comments on their graphics proposals? I'd help if you guys think it would be appropriate and useful.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Richard,
(and yes I did get your e-mail). I think that's a splendid idea, but I think we should wait another week...see who else checks in and then spread the word.
On a related note, I think everyone involved with this site should nominate Mike & John for a "National Hurricane Conference" Award for providing us all with a forum such as this. Their countless time, energy and MONEY, especially this season (TSFH [tm ME]), certainly saved lives and alerted many who might otherwise have chosen to stay when the prudent course of action was clearly to leave. Here's the link:
http://www.hurricanemeeting.com/awardinfo.htm
and the actual nomination form:
http://www.hurricanemeeting.com/form.pdf
I would think the most logical award would be in the area of "Public Awareness" or "News Media" (afterall, this may be a weather enthusiast site, but it does convey "news" and the Internet is certainly the fastest growing medium there is) but many of the categories apply.
Additionally, Skeeter could be nominated as well for his mapping genius; probably would have to compete in the "Public Awareness" category as well.
We could pass along both facets to the regulars and urge them to contact & nominate Mike/John (or ) and Skeet.
Let me know your thoughts everybody!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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mapmajor
Unregistered
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Not happy with ANY of the alternatives.
That's all I posted at first, then figured just complaining is not a good thing---one should offer an alternative if one is unhappy with what has been presented.
Graphics need to be more like , should also show swaths and probable path ellipses as now, except instead of just one ellipse, should show with percentages superimposed in the CEP circles--ie, one line/ellipse means there is an 80% probability the storm will move within that ellipse, next is 50%, and last ellipse shows the total probable error over the forecast period, just as is done now.
FWIW.
MM
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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That's a great idea, Phil! I second that notion wholeheartedly.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Richard, I haven't heard back from yet, but will post in detaill when I do.
Quote:
Not happy with ANY of the alternatives.
That's all I posted at first, then figured just complaining is not a good thing---one should offer an alternative if one is unhappy with what has been presented.
Graphics need to be more like , should also show swaths and probable path ellipses as now, except instead of just one ellipse, should show with percentages superimposed in the CEP circles--ie, one line/ellipse means there is an 80% probability the storm will move within that ellipse, next is 50%, and last ellipse shows the total probable error over the forecast period, just as is done now.
FWIW.
MM
A serious challenge to anyone seeking to disseminate information is how to best present the data in a fashion that holds the greatest value for the greatest share of your audience. No one (1) map, by , or anyone else will give all of the relevant details for all parties. A number of new maps are required. Casual users want something pretty, enthusiasts want tons of data and those folks stopping by because they heard a hurricane is coming to their area need a graphical depiction of the specific threat that they can understand at a glance and take action.
We started adding comments to the maps because we found that the storms were so large in area that anyone living within the entire map was affected to one degree or another. This was especially true of . These comments included; “Tropical Storm force winds extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. All areas on this map are affected”, “Hurricane force winds extend x miles from center”.
I believe that the accuracy of the wind field maps combined with the forecast path, overlaid on a real street map is the best way to go. One major problem is that the wind field maps are for winds occurring over the ocean, which is useless when trying to forecast wind fields over land.
Here is an inland wind field map by the that should have much more prominence on their website.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/GC13508.GIF
Users should have easy access to this map and should be able to zoom to the county level, at a minimum. These maps could be combined with the maps very easily. People don’t understand what is coming until you show them a street map with “123 anystreet” covered in red and you tell them that tonight is the night that pigs will actually take flight.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Here's the image skeet is talking about...I agree this should be added to the "arsenal" of available maps, because it shows a specific threat to a specific area, but I think, even for the most novice of us, that map still needs a "hurricane" symbol indicating current position and a directional indicator of some kind, whether it be a cone, a dotted line or whatever. Nevertheless, I cannot wait (well, after 2004, yes I can) to see how skeets & "collaboration" produces new and better maps for 2005.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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better stay innovative with the stuff you're doing, skeeto. it's amazing that the crowd hadn't caught onto the power of GIS yet (maybe somebody was afraid the detailed, unambiguous maps would scare the poor, stupid pubwick), and a bit surprising that nobody else had gone and done it either... i've got a feeling that lots of people will have -type GIS-based graphics coming online in 2005. hope you've got a macro based on the inland wind model and landfall radii that can make a peak wind swath.. and have it ready before other people come up with it.
of course, it'd all just be a model.. as tropical systems break up over land you get a localities with more rain, locally higher winds in a rainband, and path wobbles as the inner core deteriorates... but it'd be much better than nothing.
HF 0401z02december
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Thanks HF.
I've already started on a few beta maps for next year. I don't think we should wait for others to mobilize.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Great stuff skeeter! Time to start makin' some bank! Just don't forget us here at when you hit it big with the next season...
BTW Gray's 2005 Forecast is out, and I posted a link to it in the Storm Forum...and here as well:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2004/dec2004/
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Dec 03 2004 05:02 PM)
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Map Master
Unregistered
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Of course, they didn't expect the 2004 season to do what it did, so, Doc G's comment along those lines is some sort of weird PR fluff, nothing to it. He should have left the line about not expecting the season to be like 2004 ,off---maybe it will be, maybe it won't---NO ONE can forecast that , one way or the other.
MM
I strongly support Dr G and his supports, but, empty reassurances that mean nothing...mean NOTHING. Statistically he probably is right...but, if you read his analysis of this year's season....he said there is NO ONE who could have forecast that the 'deficit' from past years would be 'made up ' in one year...so, Doc, heed your own words.
Next year could be very quiet landfall wise----or just like this year. We don't have enough history to know....odds are, it WON't be, but, maybe we will 'make up ' for slow future years, in advance, next year...just as likely, you know.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Not going to start an argument here but...the odds are always against a landfalling hurricane, so many things have to be exact, hence the reason "An act of god." He saw what could happen, and he's stating the worse, the best thing to do in times like these.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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odds against a landfalling hurricane? in what context? in a typical year you get one or more.
HF 2334z05december
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Well, you have many variables that have to be suffice in order for one to consider it a land falling hurricane. Strength (in all stages), water temp., source region, how much shear, and what direction, upper level features: placement, strength, origin, are all variables that the hurricane has to consider, to say in a metaphoric way. In a typical year you get a hurricane land fall out of many that couldn't have touched land...that's why this season was so different, the amount of land falling hurricanes, and why is that so rare?Because of probability.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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What?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Mapmaster
Unregistered
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Well, whaddaya know...wave forming in SW BOC, moving NE....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
MM
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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yeah.. reckon that's some of the subtropical energy set to feed into the coastal storm that should develop sunday off the southeast. the subtropical jet is active.. with these canadian airmasses diving down the continent, it's just a matter of timing for a winter storm in the southeastern u.s... got an inkling about something happening around christmas. i could use a good snowball fight.
HF 2110z16december
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
for a winter storm in the southeastern u.s... got an inkling about something happening around christmas. i could use a good snowball fight.
Betcha Orlando won't get any snowballs this time though 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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And take a look east of the islands...a little vorticity out there too.
MM
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Just a short note to advise that I have not heard backfrom or NOAA. After looking closely at the three proposals for improved maps, I feel the new maps convey no more useful information to the layperson than the current version. the maps appear to be directed at weather professionals who understand the "cone of uncertainty", etc.
I can report that the NOAA server has been generating a large number of sessions at .com over the past 3 to 4 weeks.
After the holidays I will post a few beta maps for your review and feedback. Also, watch for a wicked cool new interface for the site.
JG
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Agree re: no improvement in the suggestions...maybe they did that on purpose??
I still say...go the way.
MM
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Skeet.... you are on your way to something big....not that you are not already there If we could just get the model data put in! I know in good time it will happen!
Happy Holidays to All!
Coop
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Just a short note to advise that I have not heard backfrom or NOAA. After looking closely at the three proposals for improved maps, I feel the new maps convey no more useful information to the layperson than the current version. the maps appear to be directed at weather professionals who understand the "cone of uncertainty", etc.
My faith in govenrmental inertia and ineptitude is apparantly being justified once again by their combination of providing no real improvements and apparant lack of interest in your talants. I, for one, remain estatic that you have joined us here at and especially happy that you will be with us again next season. I hope the newspapers and TV stations you referred to in an earlier post will pick up your maps and USE them. It would be nice if the would realize that lives are saved by providing MORE information to the public, not less and incorporate your maps into their offerings to the public, especially in the critical 24-48 hours prior to landfall when the detail your maps offer can illustrate to and convince people that a *line* 30-40 miles away from them does NOT mean they won't be affected by the storm. Keep up the good work and We'll anxiously await our belated Christmas present from Skeeterbite Hmmmm, I wonder, is Skeeterbite going to track Santa on his annual visit to the roofs of good little boys and girls?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Sorry to hear that things are slow Skeet. I would imagine that the Holidays have something to do with it. Someone, somewhere, said "Good things come to those who wait". I believe that You and the rest of us her a familiar with that phrase. It keeps the nerves calm and the tempers down. By my count there are 28 days left in the review. Give'em heck folks.
On a lighter note. I see Hank and Richard are making plans for a Christmas snowball fight in the South..Why NOT, we've had every other extreme this year. X has me waking up to a 14deg F on Christmas morning. 60 miles north of the GOM...!
Happy Holidays to all, enjoy the time off and the Snow (if you see any).
Richard, we'll freeze a few snowballs and ship them to you! 
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
Happy Holidays to all, enjoy the time off and the Snow (if you see any).
Richard, we'll freeze a few snowballs and ship them to you!
Ummmm, same to ya Daniel....but could you moke those snow *cones*....I can get some syrup and...
The official forecast for Christmas here in O'town:
Christmas Day: Partly cloudy, with a high around 57. North northwest wind around 10 mph.
Not too white is it? Oh well, when the snowballs and syrup melt, we can all have Slurpees 
Merry Christmas to all!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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as far as the map options go, i'm satisfied with the existing stuff.. for what it is, it serves it's purpose. it's a decent source for track and movement probability along with all of the usual global model output. option 2 removes the forecast path line (what good does that do).. the third option looks neat with a regular track, but with a meandering forecast track becomes confusing. they ought to just use a cone of probability with time advancement lines for possible movement, and a model of the predicted path with the wind swath overlaid... fashion stuff.
fun stuff for weather aficionados, useful information for the informed, but of course a new tool to generate hype in the hands of the ratings-hungry press.
anywho.. globals have a complex deep layer low spinning up in the central atlantic late in the week. it gets a lazy eye for now.
as far as snow potential.. there may be some up here. globals in the last couple of days had been trending the weather offshore, but the pattern is starting to look less progressive again, with the first storm a warm rainy one for mid week, with the arctic cold advection behind it and a second system developing in the western gulf early on the 24th. still low confidence what goes down.. euro and haven't agreed on it's evolution yet. official NWS forecast still has it dry here as well... and cold. they aren't taking the bait just yet. nor am i. Accuweather has a 1-3 inch snow band over me at least.
HF 1720z20december
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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From Atlantic Discussion, re: trof to east of islands translating to surface....looks like, indeed, it is , and...
"SEVERAL NUMERICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET INITIATE A SFC LOW ALONG THE TROF OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE
TROF BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THIS DOES NOT SEEM
OUTSIDE OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
THE MODELS DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL-TYPE LOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE N AND REACH A CLIMAX BETWEEN FRI AND SUN. "
MM
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Mapmaster
Unregistered
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Latest from this morning:
"HOWEVER BROAD DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N-23N
BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40W. A WEAK LOW SHOULD FORM
BY THU AROUND 22N35W AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS SEVERAL
MODELS SUGGEST IT COULD BE OF A "HYBRID" TYPE WITH SOME POSSIBLE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER THIS SITUATION IS
UNCERTAIN AS THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE OVER VERY COOL WATER TEMPS
NEAR 23C.. MAKING ANY SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM LESS LIKELY. "
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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otto formed under much the same set of environmental conditions, originating from a similar system about four weeks ago. the old 26-27c rule doesn't work well with hybrids in the subtropics, especially in the cold months. i'd give this feature more account if it were to get a substantial and persistent upper feature at first, as a transitional core warming and deep surface low would require a solid break in the strong westerlies this time of year. recalling how long the sat on otto before classification, i'd say the chances of a classified system are near zero, but should be worth tracking nonetheless.
MM you're as bad as me, rooting for hybrid fishspinners in the off months...
might as well get one, the forecast for snow here at the end of the week turned into a wash. dull dry cold is what i'm getting.
HF 1729z22december
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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Quote:
MM you're as bad as me, rooting for hybrid fishspinners in the off months...
might as well get one, the forecast for snow here at the end of the week turned into a wash. dull dry cold is what i'm getting.
HF 1729z22december
Yeah HF, it looks like our snowball fight is off, at least for a while. I didn't even get any 'snowcones' in the mail from Danny Oh well, the season is young....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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MERRY CHRISTMAS ALL POSTERS!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Same Here! Happy Holidays
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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Merry Christmas, all. tomorrow at least.
the gale center in the east central atlantic has been spinning up and coalescing in the last 12 hours or so. the twd has made mention of another deep layer system developing in the region.. these are low probability features that will have to persist and remain shielded in a cut-off environment for a couple days if they are to transition.. the westerlies will rip them apart if they can't.
spotty sleet mixing in with rain downstate across georgia to the fl panhandle. snow potential here is completely gone now.
HF 1805z24december
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU ALL!!! Only a couple of hours to go here.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Don't you know Santa doesn't come if someone is awake...go to sleep! Just kidding, have a merry christmas and a happy new year.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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i still don't feel like taking the bait.. yet.. but the official has a chance of winter weather back in the forecast here for tomorrow night. naturally, the system forecast to shunt out off the eastern seaboard is now riding north along it.. but with less cold advection to work with. it will have to really spin up to create anything significant, other than a lot of rain on the coast.
central atlantic feature is complex, with multiple vortices and more upper shortwave energy being entrained.. the slim likelihood we'd have a storm candidate has shrunken a bit more.
HF 0421z25december
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Merry Christmas all. When I get back from my trip I'll be setting up the site for the new year!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Some of ya'll in the SOUTH are enjoying an historic White Christmas!!! Enjoy...2004 THE SEASON FROM HELL [tm Me] won't quit, will it? Mike, thanks for all you did this season, can't wait for 2005 with the new and improved ! ED, Happy B-day on the 26th!!! Everyone be safe.
My best to you and yours for a happy, healthy & SAFE holiday season!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I hope everyone enjoyed the first part of the Holidays. As it's 01:22Z now and Christmas Day is passing across the globe.
Phil, your trademark "Season from Hell", has now been changed to "The season from the North Pole".
A little off topic.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
THIS CHRISTMAS SAW SLEET AND SNOW FALLING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...PROVIDING A RARE WHITE
CHRISTMAS EXPERIENCE. THIS IS THE FIRST WHITE CHRISTMAS IN THE REGION SINCE 1954.
By DOUG SIMPSON / Associated Press
NEW ORLEANS — Parts of Louisiana saw a slightly white Christmas on Saturday, and freezing rain, sleet and low temperatures forced state police to shut down interstates and state highways.
Brief flurries were reported in New Orleans, New Iberia and and elsewhere. Much of south Louisiana saw more rain than snow, however, and temperatures in the low 30s caused ice to form on bridges, forcing the closure of large stretches of interstates 55, 10 and 310, state police said.
The Huey P. Long Bridge near New Orleans was closed, as were the Sunshine Bridge in St. James Parish, the Veterans Memorial Bridge in St. John the Baptist Parish and bridges throughout Acadiana. U.S. Highway 90 was closed between Morgan City and Broussard because of ice.
The mass transit system in New Orleans halted all its buses and streetcars because of the sleet and icy streets and rail tracks, spokeswoman Rosalind Cook said. "They're having problems ... with the buses operating and some of our operators are having trouble getting into work," Cook said.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/winteroutlook2004-05c-temp.jpg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
200 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
.DISCUSSION...
CHRISTMAS 2004 WILL BE LEGENDARY AS BROWNSVILLE HAS ACCUMULATED SNOW FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE FEBRUARY 1895 . 1/2 INCH HAS ACCUMULATED AT
THE OFFICE, WITH UNINSULATED FEATURES HAVING OVER 1 INCH. SPOTTERS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE REPORTED 3 INCHES ACCUMULATED SO FAR. KMFE HAS REPORTED 3.5 INCHES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
414 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...HISTORIC CHRISTMAS WINTER STORM FOR SOUTH TEXAS SLOWLY IN THE PROCESS OF WANING. THE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN ALICE AND HEBBRONVILLE AT 09Z AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. AREAS OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND NORTHEAST TO VICTORIA
HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
537 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
THE BIG CHRISTMAS EVE STORM IS WINDING DOWN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE WAKING UP TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES IN BAY CITY
AND 4 INCHES IN WHARTON...TAPERING OFF TO 2 INCHES IN LEAGUE CITY AND 2 TO 3 INCHES AT JAMAICA BEACH. WOW! THE AREA HASN'T SEEN THIS KIND OF SNOWFALL SINCE AT LEAST 1989.
Storm totals from HGX.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/HGX/PNSHGX.0412251848
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
249 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
...WEATHER EVENT...SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW/SLEET FROM OFFSHORE RIGS.
10 MILES SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...32 DEGREES
WITH SLEET. 10 MILES OFF VERMILION...1 INCH OF SNOW/SLEET. 104
MILES SOUTH OF CAMERON...SNOW.
As of this post there has been at least 1 weather related fatality, Due to icing on bridges in Terrebone Parish ( S of New Orleans).
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Hank and Richard. This is why they call it Whether Forecasting!
Richard, your snow melted on the way down to the ground. Sorry!
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORLANDO...SANFORD
400 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
.TONIGHT...RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT.
Maybe Hank can ship you some Snow! His forecast follows:
ZONE FORECASTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
302 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AIKEN...AUGUSTA...BISHOPVILLE...COLUMBIA...
LEXINGTON...SUMTER
...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...
.TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT MIXING WITH
SLEET. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET IN THE MORNING. PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
Got Snow Shovels?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I thought STS was the abbreviation for Space Transport Shuttle. Never thought about it being Sub Tropical System.
I wonder if the STS's affect the STSs?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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sho' nuff. sleet started falling here around a quarter past nine.. a few snowflakes starting to mix in. looks like the thicknesses are just low enough so that this isn't a borrrrring cold rain event. the low level air is very dry, but all the evaporation is depressing the temperature (there is cold air damming helping out as well). came back to the house around eleven, with plenty of sleet still spic-spacking off the windshield.. the roads aren't icing yet at least. that should change over the next couple of hours.. temp drops about 2 degrees every three hours or so. don't think i'm going to church tomorrow.. if any of the kids show up they'll be getting an improvised sunday school lesson from another source.
FYI all, decent low level vortex in the central atlantic with intermittent convection, but it won't ever make the cut. there may be a secondary, but it's still all wishful thinking. at least i'm getting my much-desired winter weather (be it sleet or snow.. had my freezing rain quota for the next decade back in january).
HF 0442z26december (happy something-th birthday to ed, moderator-in-chief)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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and things ended up as just sleet. there's a coating on the ground, 1/4" of ice on the trees.. not as bad as the destructive ice storm of january '04 by any means. the precip is gone now.
look out near 21/48.. where the 'secondary' upper system is entrenching and quite possibly generating a surface system. based on its rapid evolution and the initial convective nature.. i'd say it bears watching as it moves north and east in the central atlantic.
non-weather event, but the 8.9 earthquake in the indian ocean has made itself the #1 killer event of 2004.. the tsunamis it generated have killed untold people.. easily inside a five figure death toll. all the hurricanes this year probably won't compare to it.
HF 1534z26december
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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That quake & tsunamis pretty much put a cap on the SEASON FROM HELL [tm LI Phil]. Maybe ED (Happy Birthday!) can do a 2004 Weather (all kinds) wrapup in one of the forums sometime in the next couple of weeks. Or maybe not.
Hope everyone enjoyed their holidays...and all those who had a white (or almost white) Christmas, what a surprise! I'll be sure to ship some of the white stuff down to Richard & anyone else who wants it. My forecast for today:
...snow heading toward the tri-state region...
.a low pressure center developing off the southeast portion of our nation will move rather quickly northeastward to a point well east of nantucket by monday morning. light snow will develop from south to north across the region this afternoon...and become steady this evening and overnight.
1003 am est sun dec 26 2004
the low pressure center will be too far off the coast to produce a significant snowfall for new jersey...the metropolitan area and points north...but 1 to 3 inches of accumulation appear possible by the time it ends monday morning.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that a weather wrap-up of 2004 would probably take at least two weeks to complete - what a year it has been. But I will post the season storm forecast results in the Storm Forum later today/tonight.
Thanks to all for the Birthday wishes and PMs - nice of you to remember. BTW, its the big 65 today.
Cheers,
ED
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Happy b-day Ed!! On another note, it almost looks like the storm has more of a northward track then eastward...I wonder how this will affect snow totals!
--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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we had high winds in coastal Brevard county, just thought i'd mention it here. Winds were sustained at about 40 mph, gusted 50-60 mph, with a 75 mph wind gust at the pier in Jetty Park pier (if anyone knows where that is at)
Also, there was damage, some branches down, a light pole almost blew over, and there was some minor roof damage with tiles and tar paper lying on the road. Also, a large department store lost a section of roof.
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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Definitely a El Nino sparked storm. The southern jet was a little energized. The NWS had no clue to the wind or temp. Was in the 40's here in South Fl last night and was predicted just recently to be 55F. I think Jan 05 will be a roller coaster ride with more southern storms and cold. 
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Thanks to all for the Birthday wishes and PMs - nice of you to remember. BTW, its the big 65 today.
Cheers,
ED
ED, 65 what? You have got to be kidding! Happy Belated Birthday. Whatever number it is!
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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This had nothing to do with the el nino per se, I saw this coming just by the way the was forecasting. It was jumping on the cold, snow, ice, etc. just as it is with the upcoming period of warm weather. Actually, after this "warm-up" the southern branch storms will not stop but slow, and the northern branch will once again become pre-dominante-just as it was before. But yes you can and will experince more cold, and southern branch storms, that seems to be a given this year.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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the confirmed toll from the south asian tsunami is around 80000 right now and climbing. i was fairly sure it would be five figures at first, but wasn't expecting it to get near six. seem to recall someone posting a study of the la palma volcano study earlier this year on the forum.. pray nothing like this happens in the atlantic.
the last three tropical cyclone reports came out right before christmas.. on , , and nicole.
no notable changes or new information were post analyzed on or nicole's tracks (a little surprising with nicole, as it's phase before 10 october does merit best track data). however had it's terminal track to the alabama coast revised, with the maximum winds at landfall adjusted to 105kt. there is also official data on it's and redevelopment phase.
2004 is closing out. after years of lucky misses the charmed life florida had been living since the mid 60s (minus 1992) came crashing down. at least the chances that 2005 will be similarly awful are statistically low.
we'll be ready here at , whatever comes of it.
HF 0445z30december
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> seem to recall someone posting a study of the la palma volcano study earlier this year on the forum.. pray nothing like this happens in the atlantic.
Yep, HF, good memory...that was me. As of Thursday at noon, death tolls are eclipsing 6 figures, making this easily the deadliest tsunami ever recorded. And if I hear ONE more news agency or any other media use the term "Tidal Wave" (which a tsunami is NOT!), someone's going to lose an eye.
Here's a link to the La Palma abstract:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=U&start....pdf&e=7207
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith(234)
Unregistered
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by far it is not the deadiest wave ever recorded...a wave in China killed millions of people in 1919 i believe. Gotta check my sources...but it's no where near it.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/1227_041226_tsunami.html#main
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/12/29/tech/main663740.shtml
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Well someone has the wrong sources, but Newsday says, "India tsunami stacks up second to South China Sea tsunami- which killed a million."
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Well someone has the wrong sources, but Newsday says, "India tsunami stacks up second to South China Sea tsunami- which killed a million."
Keith, you cannot believe ANYTHING you read in Newsday...they do not check their "sources". Trust me when I say this is the deadliest...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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the question of why bangladesh didn't suffer a tremendous loss of life is nagging at mind. the tsunami should have propagated up there, and the country is very low lying (multiple tropical cyclones have killed thousands there). there must be some kind of bathymetric feature that prevented it from ramping onshore at significant height... most other coastlines it reached at that range had a more significant event.
HF 0456z31december
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
the question of why bangladesh didn't suffer a tremendous loss of life is nagging at mind. the tsunami should have propagated up there, and the country is very low lying (multiple tropical cyclones have killed thousands there). there must be some kind of bathymetric feature that prevented it from ramping onshore at significant height... most other coastlines it reached at that range had a more significant event.
HF 0456z31december
HF, no offense meant, but you almost sound like you're kind of bummed about it. Be grateful Bangladesh was spared...they lost 300K+ in a typhoon in 1970, so they get a free pass with this event.
On the last day of 2004, think about ALL the wierd and wild weather we (as a nation and world) endured this year. US broke the record for most twisters ever, four major landfalling hurricanes, earthquakes & volcanoes across the world, and now the tsunami...almost makes one think there's something being called "global warming" going on...Let us all hope and pray we never, ever, have a repeat of this year.
Sorry for the bummer tone of the post, but I for one will be glad to see 2005...and on that note...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith(234)
Unregistered
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This may not be a wave, but the river of sorrow-otherwise known as the Yellow River (I believe Huang He), killed 3.7 million in China from flooding. So since the wave kills by flooding, and that event killed by flooding too it is not the most deadilest event.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Keith,
It is the DEADLIEST TSUNAMI. I never said it was the deadliest weather event. K?
Happy New Year...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
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don't know if it'll amount to anything but the does have one up for the southern hemisphere.
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TD/TS/HU/MH
19/18/0905 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals
http://blog.bloodstar.org
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
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Quote:
the question of why bangladesh didn't suffer a tremendous loss of life is nagging at mind. the tsunami should have propagated up there, and the country is very low lying (multiple tropical cyclones have killed thousands there). there must be some kind of bathymetric feature that prevented it from ramping onshore at significant height... most other coastlines it reached at that range had a more significant event.
HF 0456z31december
IIRC: evidently after the massive typhoon they had, the government there put up these massive wave bafflers in front of villages and towns, which broke up the wave and prevented it from having the impact that we're seeing in other countries... the source was from cnn.com so I'll look to see if i can find the link to the article.
-Mark
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Keith(234)
Unregistered
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Got you loud and clear, just was saying what I read in Newsday. HAPPY NEW YEAR! Can't wait till' 2005!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Farewell 2004, the 2004 forums are now closed.
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