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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 Storm Forum

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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3
      #35094 - Thu Mar 31 2005 06:45 PM

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/april2005/

Read the whole report and you will find very interesting anaylisis about why he increases the numbers.It is not a surprise that he upgraded his numbers as at the recent conference there were hints of doing so.So let's prepare for another busy season folks.


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3 [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35095 - Thu Mar 31 2005 06:46 PM

at long last!

Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 13
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1) 65
Hurricanes (H)(5.9) 7
Hurricane Days (HD)(24.5) 35
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3) 3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0) 7
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%) 135





Edited by Lysis (Thu Mar 31 2005 07:05 PM)


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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3 [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35321 - Wed May 11 2005 12:57 PM

Here I was breathing a very premature sigh of relief, thinking that the Louisiana and GOM region was in the clear this year. Now yall did tell me many times before never count my chickens before they hatch. I went to that link and read on, and I am now like HOLY BLEEP BATMAN!!

--------------------
Displaced Cajun


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3 [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35323 - Wed May 11 2005 02:49 PM

There will be another update on May 31st or so. That update should bring a bit more clarity to the 2005 season. However, I also understand that this year we will take into consideration the results of the 'British' model used for forecasting the season and projected impacted areas sometime in Auguist. Does anyone know about this new development?

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________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #35324 - Wed May 11 2005 03:01 PM

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=st...eweatherclimate

This is the information you are looking for.Interesting to read about those new methods to do more presice forecasts.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3 [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35325 - Wed May 11 2005 03:07 PM

Thanks!

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________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Dr Gray increases numbers=13/7/3 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #35326 - Wed May 11 2005 05:42 PM

Interesting article… I saw something like it in the local paper.
I think we place such an artistic emphasis on hurricanes and their global relations that we in some sense refuse to let ourselves understand them. It is almost as if such knowledge could only lead to disaster. Are hurricanes beyond understanding? Yes, you have trade wind patterns, ENSO, etc, but when it really comes down to it, what do we really know? I suppose, to quote Sophocles, "we shall either find what we are looking for, or we shall free ourselves from the persuasion that we know what we do not know."

--------------------
cheers


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