LI Phil
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If I may...
and thanks to ED for this...
this is the Honorable Senator Sentorum's "bill memo" to the president describing his proposed legislation...despite the nuances of the language, please notice his "concern" that what NOAA/NWS is actually doing is providing "private" agencies and corporations access to data which can affect the bottom line...ie, futures trading and the like...while that may not be the overriding purpose of this legislation, this is what i'm talking about...sneaking little insiduous (though seemingly innocuous) wording into legislation...he seems more worried about certain groups/coalitions making money off the weather than the actual duties of the public or private sector...read his memo...then you be the judge:
"S3658 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — SENATE April 14, 2005 STATEMENTS ON INTRODUCED BILLS AND JOINT RESOLUTIONS -- (Senate - April 14, 2005) By Mr. SANTORUM: S. 786. A bill to clarify the duties and responsibilities of the National Weather Service, and for other purposes; to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Mr. SANTORUM. Mr. President, I rise to introduce the National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005 to clarify the responsibilities of the National Weather Service (NWS) within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, NOAA. This legislation modernizes the statutory description of NWS roles in the national weather enterprise so that it reflects today's reality in which the NWS and the commercial weather industry both play important parts in providing weather products and services to the Nation. Back in 1890 when the current NWS organic statute was enacted, and all the way through World War II, the public received its weather forecasts and warnings almost exclusively from the Weather Bureau, the NWS's predecessor. In the late 1940s, a fledging weather service industry began to develop. From then until December 2004, the NWS has had policies sensitive to the importance of fostering the industry's expansion, and since 1948 has had formal policies discouraging its competition with industry. Fourteen years ago the NWS took the extra step of carefully delineating the respective roles of the NWS and the commercial weather industry, in addition to pledging its intention not to provide products or services that were or could be provided by the commercial weather industry. This longstanding non-competition and non-duplication policy has had the effect of facilitating the growth of the industry into a billion dollar sector and of strengthening and extending the national weather enterprise, now the best in the world.
Regrettably, the parent agency of the NWS, NOAA, repealed the 1991 non-competition and non-duplication policy in December 2004. Its new policy only promises to ``give due consideration'' to the abilities of private sector entities. The new policy appears to signal the intention of NOAA and the NWS to expand their activities into areas that are already well served by the commercial weather industry. This detracts from NWS's core missions of maintaining a modem and effective meteorological infrastructure, collecting comprehensive observational data, and issuing warnings and forecasts of severe weather that imperils life and property. Additionally, NOAA's action threatens the continued success of the commercial weather industry. It is not an easy prospect for a business to attract advertisers, subscribers, or investors when the government is providing similar products and services for free. This bill restores the NWS non-competition policy. However, the legislation leaves NWS with complete and unfettered freedom to carry out its critical role of preparing and issuing severe weather warnings and forecasts designed for the protection of life and property of the general public. I believe it is in the best interest of both the government and NWS to concentrate on this critical role and its other core missions. The beauty of a highly competent private sector is that services that are not inherently involved in public safety and security can be carried out with little or no expenditure of taxpayer dollars. At a time of tight agency budgets, the commercial weather industry's increasing capabilities offer the Federal Government the opportunity to focus its resources on the governmental functions of collecring and distributing weather data, research and development of atmospheric models and core forecasts, and on ensuring that NWS meteorologists provide the most timely and accurate warnings and forecasts of life-threatening weather. The National Weather Service Duties Act also addresses the potential misuse of insider information. Currently, NOAA and the NWS are doing little to safeguard the NWS information that could be used by opportunistic investors to gain unfair profits in the weather futures markets, in the agriculture and energy markets, and in other business segments influenced by government weather outlooks, forecasts, and warnings. No one knows who may be taking advantage of this information. In recent years there have been various examples of NWS personnel providing such information to specific TV stations and others that enable those businesses to secure an advantage over their competitors.
The best way to address this problem is to require that NWS data, information, guidance, forecasts and warnings be issued in real time and simultaneously to all members of the public, the media and the commercial weather industry. This bill imposes just such a requirement, which is common to other Federal agencies. The responsibilities of the commercial weather industry as the only private sector producer of weather information, services and systems deserve this definition to ensure continued growth and investment in the private sector and to properly focus the government's activities. We have every right to expect these agencies to minimize unnecessary, competitive, and commercial-type activities, and to do the best possible job of warning the public about impending flash floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis, and other potentially catastrophic events. I encourage my colleagues to support this important piece of legislation."
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steveo
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Thanks for posting that Phil. I think there is enough there to read between the lines, but the memo doesn't even address all of it. What we have is a corporation whose principal is contributing to the author/sponsor of the bill, who has a specific profit motive and wishes control of public dissemenation of data. I probably should log on at some point because I botched the cut and paste on my last post, and I'm sure i will before the season starts.
And here's a companion exhibit. It's referenced in the s2k thread, but here's the direct link. What Accuweather does not address is more than conspicuous by its absence. They are attempting to frame the debate that they are protecting the public's access to data. They make no mention of the power they will wield when that access is funneled through corporate distribution points such as their own. I say bah on it and am putting my money where my mouth is by not re-subscribing to their site. I'm all for the real-time access to the data so there can be no mistaking its validity. But as a taxpayer, I'm not getting anything for free. I paid for the data that is collected. If I excercise my rights as an American to purchase additional content, then that should be my perogative or anyone else's. But that would be as a function of a weather company or service putting value added resources into the distribution of that data (e.g. 24 hour radar loops, their own private satellite data, etc.)
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=wxinfoaccess
Steve
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Cycloneye11
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050515 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050515 0600 050515 1800 050516 0600 050516 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 78.5W 14.5N 77.2W 15.2N 75.1W 16.0N 73.0W
BAMM 14.0N 78.5W 15.0N 78.1W 15.9N 76.4W 16.7N 74.3W
A98E 14.0N 78.5W 14.6N 78.1W 15.2N 78.0W 15.7N 77.8W
LBAR 14.0N 78.5W 14.8N 77.3W 16.1N 75.8W 17.8N 73.8W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 22KTS 23KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050517 0600 050518 0600 050519 0600 050520 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 70.9W 16.3N 68.2W 15.4N 65.7W 14.9N 61.8W
BAMM 17.1N 72.2W 17.1N 69.5W 16.9N 66.5W 17.1N 61.0W
A98E 15.9N 77.2W 17.1N 75.4W 17.9N 73.2W 18.6N 70.4W
LBAR 20.2N 71.4W 24.6N 64.5W 27.2N 58.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 22KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 22KTS 17KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 79.3W DIRM12 = 54DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Interesting tha the model guidance has made this run for the low in the Caribbean but no development is shown from them.Shear is horrible there for anything to get going.But the main threat will be the copius amounts of rain for the greater antilles and I am here in Puerto Rico waiting for that.Here over 9:00 inches has fallen in the past 7 days as the trough has been stationary but those amounts will increase as that low moves thru the area.
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Looks interesting this morning..... i have also noticed the models picking up on something coming across cuba...south bahamas area in about a week or so...but way to far out to know if not...... but this could be a sign of things to come. somthing i noticed in the this morning, this one "feature" looks to be coming form the pacific ocean into the caribbean. Anyway just some morning gossip... Interesting model run on AL91.... looks like lots of rain for the islands!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun May 15 2005 02:35 PM)
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HanKFranK
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that is some lackluster model support. 91L hasn't changed a whole lot for the last 48 hours. the convection is now all staying east of the broad SFC low/trough centered roughly near 13/80. shear isn't letting up.. the only thing that would compensate for that would be if the low were to start clinging to convection and tightening.. in which case it might finally start moving ene.
in various runs over the past few days, pretty much all of the models are trying to brew up low pressure near cuba to the east and northeast. none of them looks incredibly feasible, but 91L was effectively spotted days ahead by the globals, so i reckon that some manifestation of these disturbances will keep our attention in the tropics for the rest of may. as storm hunter mentioned in the previous post, there's a funny-looking pacific cross-over type disturbance too. keeps dipping negative; now that we're getting closer to the season these pulses are finally contributing to backing and low pressure trying to spawn in the deep tropics.
the subtropical jet is also going to start migrating north and weakening over the next couple of weeks, so the inhibiting conditions currently over the basin are going to lose ground.
think it's a fair bet we'll get an active early season.
HF 1702z15may
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun May 15 2005 04:03 PM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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little bugger doesn't seem to be going anywhere, despite the shear...interesting
however, the "wave" is at 1005mb so i can't foresee any true development at any point in the near future...the development next week alluded to by the above posters will probably keep our attention through Memorial Day, and then we'll officially kick off the season...guess i'll have to get my predictions in order soon...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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it looks like 91L is starting to become a bit better organized, looking at the satellite loops this morning. shows 30 mph and 1007 mb (earlier it was 1008 and before that they had 20-25 mph winds and didnt bother putting up the pressure). I have also noticed a disorganized but definate circulation just northwest of the convection, and there seems to be a bit of upper-air ridging just to the west of the convection. It seems with the organization pattern and upper-air flow that we could see a lopsided but tropical system come out of this like Gabrielle in 2001; and this system looks similar to Gabrielle about a day before classification.
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Cycloneye11
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050515 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050515 1800 050516 0600 050516 1800 050517 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 78.1W 14.8N 76.7W 15.8N 75.7W 17.0N 75.1W
BAMM 14.1N 78.1W 14.5N 77.2W 14.9N 76.4W 15.3N 76.2W
A98E 14.1N 78.1W 14.5N 77.6W 15.2N 77.5W 15.7N 77.3W
LBAR 14.1N 78.1W 14.8N 76.7W 16.2N 75.2W 18.1N 73.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 34KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050517 1800 050518 1800 050519 1800 050520 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 74.2W 22.7N 65.8W 26.6N 52.4W 29.0N 43.8W
BAMM 16.3N 76.0W 17.7N 74.0W 18.1N 70.1W 18.1N 65.9W
A98E 16.0N 76.8W 17.2N 75.0W 18.2N 72.6W 19.1N 70.3W
LBAR 20.3N 71.2W 24.2N 65.5W 27.5N 59.3W 28.9N 55.3W
SHIP 37KTS 35KTS 25KTS 0KTS
DSHP 37KTS 35KTS 27KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 78.1W DIRCUR = 65DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 78.9W DIRM12 = 63DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 79.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
The above is the 1800 utc run and it is interesting to see from the morning run to this one a diference and that is intensity.But shear is strong there.Neverless it is amazing that we are talking about this in mid may even if nothing occurs.
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Anyone see the 2005051518 run? interesting.....could we have two systems before June 1st? or is it my eyes? still wants to create something around cuba in about a 100hrs or so and bring it ne.... hmm....and 91L wants to cross PR and head towards the atlantic high? and looks like the ukm is hinting at a pacific cross over to carb. system too..... way to early to tell... but atleast there's something to talk about, besides this bill, that in the end, in my view, will help make the private sectors more money off my TaXeS!!!!!!
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun May 15 2005 11:34 PM)
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Hurricanehlh
Unregistered
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What I can see is 91L now has a well defined cirualtion. At least defined enough to track. We got something here.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Let me say this; there are SERIOUS misconceptions about this bill and what it's effects will or will not be. Most everything I have seen on here and in other locations is not what the bill is intended to do, or what the CWSU is thinking. The reason that the bill has even been presented is due to the arrogance of the leadership of NOAA dissolving a long standing agreement between themselves and the Commericial Weather industry, and REFUSING to come back to the table and hammer out a new agreement.
Want free, unfettered weather data? Better hope the Santorum Bill passes, cause you aren't likely to get some of it if it doesn't.
Sorry for the OT post...but this issue really gets me going cause the commerical vendors are getting hammered for this, when it is YOUR Governments fault this bill is proposed at all.
Jason,
I must tell you that I think you are one hell of a meteoroligist and your contributions to this forum and to the public you serve are very valuable. The good senator that introduced the bill stated:
"The best way to address this problem is to require that NWS data, information, guidance, forecasts and warnings be issued in real time and simultaneously to all members of the public, the media and the commercial weather industry. This bill imposes just such a requirement, which is common to other Federal agencies."
I couldn't agree more. However, due to the poor wording, the vague 'who does what to whom' in the bill and the lack of specific non ambiguous guidelines as to how the 'final authority' is to rule and the lack of specific guarantees that the NWS will in fact be able to perform as specified above, coupled with specific warning contrary to that stated goal.
In fact, consider the following wording from the bill:
(b) COMPETITION WITH PRIVATE SECTOR.--The
20 National Weather Service shall not provide, or assist other
21 entities in providing, a service or product (other than a
22 service or product described in subsection (a)(1)(A)) that
23 is or could be provided by the private sector unless--
S 786 IS
3
1 (1) the Secretary determines that the private
2 sector is unwilling or unable to provide such service
3 or product; or
4 (2) the United States Government is obligated
5 to provide such service or product under inter-
6 national aviation agreements to provide meteorolog-
7 ical services and exchange meteorological informa-
8 tion.
To me, this states that the NWS is prohibited from achieving our mutual goal of free, unfettered access by the public. The words could be provided by the private sector says that because TWS or Accuweather or some private company COULD produce it doesn't require that it BE provided. The bill is full of such contridictions and vague wording. This makes this bill DANGEROUS as worded and should not be supported.
If it is reworded as you yourself suggest is needed ...
"The problem with the bill is that there are lots of areas that are gray or poorly worded, and there are several areas I would like to see changed...however I can assure you that the nefarious accusations that have been levied towards the CWSU aren't what is actually in the cards."
...then I might be able to support it, but not as it is. This MUST NOT become law.
I remain an ardent supporter of yours, but respectfully disagree with your conclusions in this matter. If the government *can* screw it up, it almost always does...let's don't make it easy for them to sell this farm for we will all go hungry.
Richard
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Thanks for posting that Phil. I think there is enough there to read between the lines, but the memo doesn't even address all of it. ... I'm all for the real-time access to the data so there can be no mistaking its validity. But as a taxpayer, I'm not getting anything for free. I paid for the data that is collected. If I excercise my rights as an American to purchase additional content, then that should be my perogative or anyone else's. ...
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.asp?dir=aw&page=wxinfoaccess
Steve
Steve,
Thanks for that URL. Accuweather does put on its' good face here, but it does leave out the fact the bill does NOT guarantee such free information if they are willing to provide the same information. Missing are the words 'at no additional cost to the public'. In fact, it appears that if commercial entities are simply "willing" to provide the information (not necessarily at no additional cost), then the NWS would not be able to do so. This bill is badly worded and while it may be attempting to right a wrong, it is falling way short of that goal by making a legal pool of quicksand out of the attempt.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i haven't seen this to often: 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
555 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A
.. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS NORTH 20 NM AND
SOUTH 60 NM.
.. UNTIL 630 PM EDT
.. AT 549 PM EDT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVED A
WATERSPOUT ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...MOVING WEST AT 5 TO MPH.
WATERSPOUTS TEND TO FORM WITHIN LONG CLOUD LINES...AND ARE MOST
LIKELY TO FORM UNDER A LARGE CLOUD BUILDUP WITH A DARK FLAT BASE.
MARINERS SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THIS WATERSPOUT IMMEDIATELY.
was a few hours ago......
someone must have some cool pics!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Richard,
Thanks for the kind words...you aren't really the one I was pointing at with my comments...and good people can certainly disagree with out being disagreeable.
There are problems with the bill...but there are problems WITHOUT the bill too..hopefully someone can find some middle ground.
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Jason Kelley
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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noticed in the caribbean section, looking somewhat busy:
CARIBBEAN...
BROAD LOW PRES...1007 MB...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N79W ALONG A SFC TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA CANAL ZONE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
SHOW THE LOW TO BE QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH SEPARATE
CIRCULATIONS NEAR 13N79W AND 16N77W.
dosn't seem to be doing good, i saw the two swirls this afternoon... way to much shear, but that could change in a few days......
i also noticed the later down in the section....
"A DUO OF DEVELOPING SYSTEMS OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CNTRL
AMERICA BY MID-WEEK AS THEY TRACK GENERALLY TO THE E."
will they make the cross over to the caribbean?
just reading the basic TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
should set up for a fun weak of watching!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I was looking at the models they all now seem to want to pull something from the EPAC now to the Carib.The was the last to come on board.The thing I notice between the models is the time frame that they deal with the system.The and has the system off the W coast of CAmerica in 144hrs.Then you have the UKMET and with the system S of Cuba in 144hrs.The last two seem to have the system moving due UL exiting the E coast of the at that time.That would move it up over Cuba or PR then.The seems to overdue the intensity.If the models still show this come Wed. or Thurs. there might be something to it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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this is one of the few times that all the models seem to be predicting the same thing, and when that happens, it tends to happen
It would certainly be interesting if we did have a Pacific system develop in the Atlantic--it hasnt happened since 1989 and the last time before that was 1949
Edited by Rabbit (Mon May 16 2005 02:13 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Yea Rabbit the intensity thing by the is kinda hard to believe right now.I looked at the EPAC you can almost see a circulation @8'N and 115'W.Then you have the mess closer in.The was trying to develop two lows last night is now down to one.The fact that all the models are in agreement of sorts may mean there is some bases to it.I still think that later this week will let us know.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-ir4-loop.html
forget about the 8'N deal circulation wrong directiion hehe.Look further E.
Edited by javlin (Mon May 16 2005 02:45 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Luis(cycloneye) at storm2k thru it up over there and brought up is this the EPAC crossover system.Looks to be getting organized
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Is this an odd event-that this system may actually move due east and crossover into the Carribean?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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