hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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if it makes it across C.A. somewhat intact
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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Tropical Storm Andres in early June 1997 moved eastward and even southeast there
Andres
Andres made it across, but did not redevelop though, but it was being sheared quite alot from the moment it formed, and had weakened to a weak TD before landfall
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Lysis
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If my memmory serves me correct, there was one cyclone that switched basins (and subsequently its name) more than once. I can't find where I read this. Anyone know of what I am referring to?
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cheers
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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it was in 1961
On November 1 1961, Hurricane Hattie moved into the Eastern Pacific, became Tropical Storm Simone, turned north, hit Mexico on November 3, dissipated, moved over the Bay of Campeche on November 4, and was reclassified and given a third name--Tropical Storm Inga.
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Keith234
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Quote:
If my memmory serves me correct, there was one cyclone that switched basins (and subsequently its name) more than once. I can't find where I read this. Anyone know of what I am referring to?
Earl?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Storm Cooper
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Nice work! Both of you.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Heather
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Loc: Sebring, FL
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OK, help me out here. If the storm switched basins and survived, then what? I mean I understand the directions of storms moving east to west. But, west to east seems strange. Would it get caught up and move into the GOM or keep on truckin' against the grain into the Atlantic? Make any sense?
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When it rains, it pours...
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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i just remembered another one--Mitch in 1998
the center was over the Pacific for a short time, although it was never classified, which is why the name stayed teh same in the Bay of Campeche (this might be the one you were thinking of)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Just took a quick look at the latest visible imagery, and has anyone else noticed the low over the Dominican Republic (formerly 91L) has started to get beeter organised. It seems quite compact, but there appears to definitely be some organisation there. Any thoughts?
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Keith234
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Well, hurricanes don't necessarily always follow the prevailing winds (jet) per se, but are much more influenced by trofs and ridges. In this case, there happens to be a trof in the southwest which allows the cyclone to override the prevailing wind flow, as it is very weak this time of year.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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i just looked at a topograpy map
high mountains in Central America
i still think that it could hit as a tropical storm and regenerate as a TS again in the Caribbean, because in 1998 Mitch hit as a barely Cat I and moved VERY slowly over the mountains for 5 days, and still managed to regenerate as a tropcial storm
this is expected to be a tad weaker, but it will be moving much faster
I am making an official forecast on this:
Landfall 75-80 mph intensity, and about 24 hours after getting into the Caribbean, it will probably strengthen to a TS, probably a hybrid system as Mitch did in 1998 (look for it to possibly be classified as a subtropical storm there)
as for the easterly flow, the low in the Caribbean we have had there the last few days has probably had some influence of weakening the easterly flow
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Quote:
Just took a quick look at the latest visible imagery, and has anyone else noticed the low over the Dominican Republic (formerly 91L) has started to get beeter organised. It seems quite compact, but there appears to definitely be some organisation there. Any thoughts?
it looks like it's getting sheared apart. So I don't see anything happening...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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nl
Storm Tracker
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so what we are saying is we might have a TS in may? is that normal stuff? i think its wierd and does that explain the reason why such a high probality for landfalls this season? this stuff is so cool. looks like ill have a good surfing season, well except for the sharks. lol 
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Storm Cooper
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It is possible....possible... but I think it may be a long shot at this time.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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If anything were to occur it would be weakened; i do not see anything of substance sustaining life for long.
Still, time will tell.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Thanks rabbit:
According to this:
http://www.ejournal.unam.mx/atmosfera/Vol16-4/ATM16401.pdf
...only six Tropical cyclones have made landfall around Guatemala. All tropical storm intensity...no hurricanes. Perhaps this will be another first, much like the south Atlantic system that hit Brazil last year.
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cheers
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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thought that system looked healthy last night...
based on the outflow signature, and the amount of low level convergence clear in the visibles, i'd agree with some here and say that the intensity forecast is conservative. sure it's going "backwards", but y'all remember lenny...
i don't think there's an el salvador landfall i've ever come across in the historic database, so this could be a first if it keeps ene. this thing should become adrian and it may be more than just a borderline ts/hurricane.. something that section of coast doesn't typically see regardless. if the system crosses it will probably be disorganized at the surface and shallower, so the rapid ene movement late in the forecast period may be overdone. if it comes off still as a deep system, yeah, it'll be sheared and racing ene... a shallower system might drift and slowly spin down or build back up slowly if it can find a shear gap. clark mentioned some evolution of features in the mid latitudes that could shelter it or give it a more poleward path, but that's far down the road for a system with little climatology.
by the way, if it survives (and the doesn't decide that it has 'reformed') the trek across central america it will still be called adrian.. the changed their convention on that a couple years ago (about the same time they changed the naming convention for subtropical systems).
this will also confuse our season numbers from the outset. in my book this will be a pacific system and not count into my atlantic totals.. and they already need all the help they can get. in my book a system counts in the basin it formed in, in the month it formed in.. regardless of where it goes or when it reaches different tiers of intensity.
so anyway.. may 19th we get the end of the star wars series and the beginning of guatemala/el salvador hurricanes. i've got a conference to hit with a bunch of met/climo people that evening, so i guess we'll have something to talk about.
HF 0111z18may
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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may 19th we get the end of the star wars series and the beginning of guatemala/el salvador hurricanes
Well Hank, you just combined my two favorite subjects. You made my day.
As for as this being the first real cyclone that this area has had.... well, ever, could we be looking at major loss of life? Guatemala hasn’t done too well in the past with this sort of thing (ie, mitch). 
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue May 17 2005 08:29 PM)
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Clark
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Keith234 -- the jet is directly influenced by the positions of the jets and ridges. In fact, jets are often found between the two where the height gradient (the difference in heights over an area) is the greatest. That comes out of the mathematical framework of the weather.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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RrYyAaNn
Unregistered
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im jw..is it possible for this thing to go over c.a into the bahamas and then on its way to the us coast..if so, where on the coast would you say??
.ryan.
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I have experienced no hurricanes, and thats no fun
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