Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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GREAT JOB MITCH 
Living here on the Beach, it will be a great tool.
I have already booked marked your website. 
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It looks to be a subtropical-type storm at this time, but we're hurt by a lack of QuikScat data over the center -- it just so happened to fall in the middle of one of the data gaps.
The model phase analyses on the storm have been very interesting to date, suggesting the potential to briefly dig into the warm core realm of things. But, the validity of it depends upon how well the models are picking up the system -- and judging from the visible satellite imagery lately, it's not very big -- and the warm-core structure may be diabatically (e.g. convectively) induced, per the big guy himself (that being the man behind the phase diagrams).
It's been a really weird weather pattern over the past few days, starting with the movement of the incipient upper-low and development of a blocking pattern across the Eastern seaboard -- an upper-ridge actually built in over the NE US from the east. The structure of the system on satellite imagery & in surface analyses is not unlike a secluded structure -- not necessarily warm seclusion, but a seclusion in general. Convection has been trying to develop over the center today in a very narrow band, occasionally wrapping around, but the cloud tops are not very cold and the shear is still a bit too great -- namely on the eastern side -- for anything to happen fast.
Water temperatures, in limited spots, are near 25-26 C, subfavorable but not entirely out of the realm of possibility. In limited regions along the Gulf Stream, Max. Pot. Intensity maps suggest the potential to support up to a cat 1/2 hurricane...but if the storm were to move a whole lot, it'd get into a much weaker environment. Tropopause temperatures are around -55 C, making the difference between surface and aloft about 80 degrees C, not bad.
Most likely development, if any: subtropical structure. Likely not to move a while lot over the next few days in this blocknig regime; if anything, it should drift south. The tropical we run here in the lab (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5) suggests a slow southward drift to the system, gradually dissipating in about 3-4 days. Were it to last beyond there, the strength of the ridge over the US would determine ultimate motion -- stronger would send it towards Florida (broken record, I know), weaker out to sea. The latter looks more likely, though, esp. after dissipation. We only run it at 00Z each day though, so the data might be slightly old. I'll add more if there's anything new down the line...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Excellent analysis Clark---agree 100%.
Definitely it IS a STS--or TS. Latest satpic shows and eye feature, spiral bands, etc.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
MM
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Excellent analysis Clark---agree 100%.
Definitely it IS a STS--or TS
Don't be hasty. He diddn't say that it was a tropical or subtropical storm at the moment. 
Edited by Lysis (Fri Apr 15 2005 05:54 PM)
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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At a minimum, it is interesting to finally have a system to discuss. Here is a color ehanced version of the satellite image referenced in the post above. We enahanced the image and added color due to low light levels in the satellite image.
Full size color enhanced image
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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At a minimum, it is interesting to finally have a system to discuss. Here is a color ehanced version of the satellite image referenced in the post above. We enahanced the image and added color due to low light levels in the satellite image.
Awesome image . And I agree, it is wonderful to have something worth talking about. At any rate, things are finally getting interesting.
Edited by Lysis (Fri Apr 15 2005 06:52 PM)
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It's events like these that remind us how close we really are to the start of the season. Doesn't seem at all long since the end of the last one.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Time to make sure those cameras are all in working order guys.We might have some early surprises popping up this season...Weatherchef
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Hey all...long time no see. Don't believe I've posted here since Aug last season, (got real busy when school started and just sort of took a break from posting for a while). I hope everyone here has enjoyed their offseason because the good old days of staying up late and watching every blob in the Atl are fast approaching. This gale off the NC coast has lost the little chance it had to ever become a STS, but it is/was an interesting feature...a sign of things to come? Maybe, maybe not.
Our website has recently been recontstructed a bit, more up-to-date info. And for those wondering, Jason and I will be releasing our annual seasonal forecast on May 25 as always. Been working on a lot of stats and research the past several months, in addition to closely monitoring . We've also added some new methods to account for the few missed aspects of last season (the FL barrage for instance).
And man, I've been hearing all sorts of rumors and claims about this year, ranging from a beastly FL-targeted repeat of last year...to a calmer, El Nino-hindered season. Perhaps...
Y'all take care.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Great job skeet!
doens't look good for us....same or warmer than last year, most places except right off the e coast...and obviously no el nino .
MM
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I'm no expert, but logic dictates that the shallower waters off the coast (above the continental shelf) you mentioned will have no trouble heating up as Summer approaches.
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sntmoyer
Unregistered
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Hey! We live in Brevard county and I have added your weather site to my favorites. I am really hoping we do not have a repeat of last year  . I am already making plans for this coming season. I bought an extra Futon mattress for family memebers that always come to our house to wait it out... If they get any bigger than last year I'm headed up north to take cover in TN where we have other family members. we are already stocking up on water and can goods and I am thinking of buying a small freezer for ice and other things. we are lucky to have 4 generators as we have a small construction business. Here's to wishing everyone around Florida and other areas a safe hurricane season. May everyone get their repairs done before the next season starts.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The MDR region is definitily warmer this year as well as the area around PR.The GOM will will warm up quick enough by mid June.The activity over Africa looks impressive right now.It is still way to early for the waves to have a chance out there but what if it was late July or August.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/images/xxirmet7n.GIF
Edited by javlin (Fri Apr 22 2005 08:00 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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more than a week ago i mentioned that had gone negative. it's still there, so this may be another event like the february spell that generated that kelvin wave which knocked the 1/2 region SSTs back into weak warm. this is the straw about to break the camel's back as far as my preseason forecast goes... the pattern may be oscillating, but when it goes positive it never gets strongly so... the negative phases early this year have been very strong. we will probably still be in a weak el nino mode going into the season, and i'm getting the idea that's going to be the pattern for the rest of 2005.
as far as numbers go i'm not going to presume that weak el nino conditions will have a significant reducing effect. for 2003 and 2004 that wasn't the case, and 2002 wasn't all that mild of an el nino year either.
a little heads-up. the wmo ought to verify the name retirements for 2004 fairly soon, and give us the remade 2010 list. four storms from the '04 list you know you can kiss goodbye. so we get a new 'c' (i'm all for clyde to follow bonnie), an 'f', and the 'i' and 'j' replacements also.
odd note: the forecast high for sunday is in the 50s here, with partly cloudy conditions. it's odd to get a sunny day that cold this late in the season around here. pretty amplified pattern we're in. this keeps up, we'll have stretches where the east coast is open for business during the hurricane season.
HF 0707z23april
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
odd note: the forecast high for sunday is in the 50s here, with partly cloudy conditions. it's odd to get a sunny day that cold this late in the season around here. pretty amplified pattern we're in. this keeps up, we'll have stretches where the east coast is open for business during the hurricane season.
HF 0707z23april
Hey Hank, you Do Mean vacationing business right!
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I have to agree HF that the weak El Nino if not maybe neutral conditions are going to persist for the upcoming season.This condition will have little effect in the long run on the numbers for the season.The amplifications of these fronts I think will subside before to long and the normal summer pattern will set in.I think it still to early to call the ridge out in the Atlantic quite yet.It will be June and July don't you think that will show strength of the ridge.I will take this weather for now it is absolutly gorgeous here along the MGC.Nice to here you guys are still alive catch yea later.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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This link is to a Flash animation of the NOAA Global SST Analysis. You will need Flash or Shockwave to view. The page "should" be smart enough to direct you to this player if you need it.
The period covered is Jan 1, 2005 through Apr 23, 2005
Please let us know if there is value in this type of content.
Skeetobite Flash Animation
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Ryann
Unregistered
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do you guys think there is a chance of a hurricane hitting long island or anywhere up by jersey or boston or generally the northeast in general :confused:...please let me know by posting your thoughts..thanks a lott i appreciate it..ryan [color:red] [/color]
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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There is an elevated chance of a NE season this year, as HF mentioned in a previous post. The degree of amplitude in rosby waves now would surely allow a CV system to come up to LI; but will this pattern remain the same? There's a high chance, especially with a persistent negative index. Also, NE years (hurricane's landfalling in the NE) usually follow year's of high Florida activity (check the archives at Unisys (sp))
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Tue Apr 26 2005 08:40 AM)
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