rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I wouldn't believe it was still May, but check out the outflow from this organizing system, if I can call it that..
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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http://www.hurricanealley.net/Forecast/Images/LANDFALLMAY05.gif
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Forecast/Images/FORMATIONMAY05.gif
Very interesting forecast from hurricane alley.It highlights the Texas coast as a high risk area.Where I am Puerto Rico is included at the red zone.Now let's see if all of this pans out but they have a good record in the past in terms of landfalling forecasts.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hello all ers,
I have been quite sick and spent the last week in the hospital, during which time I had to do a lot of soul searching and will be making several lifestyle changes necessary to keep me living for many more years. This is what happens when you refuse to see a doctor of any kind for 20 years...and you live a lifestyle that is, shall we say, akin to Keith Richards minus the drugs. All I can say is that had i not been to see a doctor 1 week and a half ago, i probably would have been dead before hurricane season ended. That being said, while still not the 'healthiest' of humans, i am well on the road to a full recovery and i look at this 'second chance' as a blessing rather than a curse. Many of you know i've been through a lot of personal $h!+ over the past year and a half and i allowed it to take over my life. Well, no more.
That being said, I now look forward to rededicating myself to this website and my health, in no particular order, and I think 2005 is the year of really big things for . I learned that hospital food (at least when you are allowed to eat 'solid' food) is even worse than airplane food, and i look forward to a full healthy meal tonight. TV at the hospital is abysmal (they don't even carry and the only cable news is the communist-run CNN) so I've totally been out of the loop as far as this season goes, so i've got some catching up to do.
Can't wait to get back in the saddle again and it's great to see many of the regulars are already in mid-season form even before the official start of the season.
Just wanted to wish everyone well and NEVER take your health for granted.
Now...let's get it started!
Cheers,
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Welcome back Phil and yes let's get ready to rumble. 
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Yes, welcome back Phil; and good health upon yee_
and have a safe season! 
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Good to see you back Phil stick to those guns and one shall prevail.
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Stay strong Phil... as I said at HCW, your bieng back is a very good thing!
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cheers
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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I just realized that tomorrow is Friday the 13. Yeah... I sure remember the last Friday the 13. If things come to be within the next few days, what at a way start the season, eh?
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu May 12 2005 07:55 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Glad to hear you're doing better, Phil. We'll try to send some action your way this summer for a complete recovery!
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Clark
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Tomorrow definitely is Friday the 13th, but the way things are panning out, I don't think we'll have a system out there this time around....unlike the last one (for those that don't remember, that would be Friday, August 13th, 2004). There's less support from the globals on anything in the Carib the next couple of days -- not convinced shear is going to let up -- the current flareup of convection not withstanding. Maybe it'll help build the ridge over the deep SW Carib, but I wouldn't get my hopes up just yet.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Sorry for the off-topic post, but as stated before, this is important for everyone. Please take time to sign this partition.
Click here
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Believe me, the NWS does not need the people to save it...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Yes, i send my best wishes too. Get well soon!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Good to have u back Phil, kind regards
The area in the SW caribbean i dont think will develop, at least not yet. Sure, the SST's are good enough, and there is ample moisture with the recent passage of the tropical wave, but it isnt organised. Convection will probably keep firing up here, and if this persists and the upper level conditions are favourable, we could see some slow development this weekend, but cant say as i am holding my breath...
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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WB and very glad to see ya back Phil. I have missed ya bad. Good to see you are doing a wee bit better and ITA with you that your health should never be ignored! Love yaz!! Oh and hiyas everyone else!!
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Displaced Cajun
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Heather
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Loc: Sebring, FL
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Sorry to hear you've had a rough time LI Phil, but glad things are looking up for you. We definitely need you around here and glad you're back!!
So, lots of little things out there that you all are posting about...is this typical for this time of year??
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When it rains, it pours...
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Steve-o
Unregistered
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Glad to hear you're alright Phil. I read your post and figured I should pop in to say yo. I suppose you could have enjoyed the Fox Nazi Channel .
Steve
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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Interesting,Maine has a higher percent than Miami/Ft. L;auderdale.Also Bahamas is at 70%,but Miami/Ft Lauderdale is at 40-70% even though the Bahamas are just a few miles off shore.I guess Miami would be at 69%. :?:
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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grays analogs for this year in december were 1952, 1958, 1970, and 2003
in april they were 1952, 1959, 1995, and 2003.
ENSO is trending neutral, which is more or less the pattern of any of the listed years. if you count up the landfalls in the listed years, in the u.s., texas, south carolina, and florida have most of the hurricane landfalls. most of the listed years have out of season activity, a good spread-out season, and in general above normal activity. of the years listed, the latest first storm formed june 14, most of the last storms were in late october. the modern era years of 1995 and 2003 featured an extremely high level of activity... most forecasts being advertised now have the idea that 2005 will come across much the same.
it has been mentioned that the cooler than normal SSTs in the atlantic subtropics would promote a stronger than average zonal ridge in the western atlantic. i concur with this idea. if the conditions are as such going into the core of the season... look out. of course, after how incredibly unlucky 2004 was, look for the 'saving grace' scenarios to play out at least some of the time this year.
potential highlights based on analogs:
preseason or early june system.
at least 3 major hurricanes.
tropical storm and hurricane landfalls clustering in tx, fl, and sc.
major hurricane somewhere in the caribbean.
three of the six years had a major hurricane hit somewhere in the u.s. (gracie 1959, celia 1970, Opal 1995). 1958 was damned close with another, helene. the other two had a category two (able, 1952, isabel, 2003).
three of the years had multiple hurricane hits; all had tropical storm landfalls somewhere in the gulf.
of course, it's unlikely that the analogs will play out exactly. if we get the strong west extension of the ridge like last summer/fall, the clustering of out-to-sea recurvatures in the western and central atlantic seen in all of the years won't work out. that's not the sort of thing easily assessed from may 12th.
HF 0400z13may
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Clark
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I'll agree with that statement about the ridge, HF. By their nature, with cooler than normal surface conditions, you're promoting the development of that subtropical ridge. Any sort of organized convection you can get going south of it is going to help things along too -- heat release from convection/outflow promotes that development too. (Info provided moreso for everyone else's general knowledge.)
As we saw in 2004, the operational models did a pretty poor job of representing the subtropical ridge & its strength. I asked a couple of the tropical modelers from the Natl. Center for Env. Prediction (NCEP; where they design/run the model, among others) about this and if anything had been done to understand the cause of the errors or attempt to fix them; their reply to me was that they did not know of any problems in representing the ridge last season. I'll leave that bit for you all to chew on.
Anyway, with the current conditions with a ridge across the subtropics -- including much of the SE U.S. -- the warming temperatures (near 90 in spots now) are going to warm those shallow waters near-shore pretty quickly. We'll probably be near-normal before the end of the month if the current pattern holds to a reasonable degree. Anomalies aren't quite as extreme in the central Atlantic, though any small amount may play a non-insignificant role in TC formation/track, but these too will likely warm once we get into the season. Still surprising to see warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the tropics; if we get the jet to move out of the region over the next month or so, we may get something out east of the islands in late June/early July.
I agree, though; it's not a great scenario to be looking at right now. Last thing we need is anything close to 2004. 1995 wouldn't be a bad year, come to think of it -- lots of storms but lots of fish spinners (minus Opal and, to some degree, Luis/Marilyn).
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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