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Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued for area in the East-Central Atlantic, only with 10% chance for development, not expected to do much.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 239 (Idalia) , Major: 239 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 239 (Idalia) Major: 239 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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hurricanehkjkl
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Re: straight analogs [Re: Clark]
      #35357 - Fri May 13 2005 05:11 AM

Look at 14 north/82 west just off the coast. There seems to be a MLC forming. Deep convection. The models show a area of low pressure developing in moving northeastward after 24 hours. Could it be?

I will be tracking this closely!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html


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Rich B
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SW Caribbean [Re: hurricanehkjkl]
      #35360 - Fri May 13 2005 11:13 AM

The 06Z Surface Analysis also shows a broad low pressure area (1005mb) in this general region, with IR satellite imagery indicating a large complex of convection with very cold cloud top temperatures. This area is also being hinted at in some of the forecast models, as alreadys tated above. After my comments yesterday about this area not developing, and with HF's comments on the analog years having preseason or early season activity, it looks like this area might actually do something over the next few days.

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Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: straight analogs [Re: Clark]
      #35361 - Fri May 13 2005 12:18 PM

Quote:

I agree, though; it's not a great scenario to be looking at right now. Last thing we need is anything close to 2004. 1995 wouldn't be a bad year, come to think of it -- lots of storms but lots of fish spinners (minus Opal and, to some degree, Luis/Marilyn).




...and Erin. As a point of reference, peak gust at the house::
Frances, 2004: 80mph
Jeanne, 2004: 72mph (twice)
Erin. 1995: 104mph (eyewall - 40 minutes)

A 'bad' year is only defined by where you (and the storm) are at.
Cheers,
ED


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rmbjoe1954
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Dr. Gray 's Update [Re: Rich B]
      #35364 - Fri May 13 2005 02:35 PM

Dr. William Gray will be updating his forecast on May31st but he will hint that he will be increasing the number of storms at a seminar today.. The morning news had indicated he will increase his number of cyclones, presently at 13, to a higher number. I wonder if he'll go to 14, or even to 15. Unprecedented if he goes as high as 15 with tthe scheduled update on May 31st..

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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Sat May 14 2005 01:01 PM)


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Rabbit
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southwest Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #35365 - Fri May 13 2005 02:44 PM

first off, to LIPhil, hope you get better soon

now for the Caribbean system, it is interesting to note that we have not had a tropical storm in May since 1981 (which i think is the longest time period in the satellite and radar era); and it is only a matter of time before we have another. The low east of Honduras does seem to be forming a circulation, and there is a feeder band comming into the SE edge from the Pacific (usually a good indication of formation).
Not going to say yet if I think it will develop, but it looks like the best possibility since the system in 1996 (last year's low was subtropical)

it is also interesting that the last May storm was Arlene
which will be the first storm this year

Caribbean low


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javlin
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Re: southwest Caribbean [Re: Rabbit]
      #35367 - Fri May 13 2005 03:57 PM

You have to give this system an A for persistence.The SST's in the area can support a system if the shear would relax.I think HF and Clark are right see if it persist in another 48hrs. maybe something will happen.HF are Clark is the shear we are seeing now in relation to the Kelvin wave a few weeks back?

If the shear does not lessen its a dead goose.

Edited by javlin (Fri May 13 2005 04:19 PM)


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Rich B
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Re: SW Caribbean [Re: Rich B]
      #35374 - Fri May 13 2005 09:34 PM

Well the disturbed weather continues in the SW Caribbean. In fact the latest visible imagery would seem to indicate a circulation has now developed near 12N 81W. Not sure if this is surface or mid-level. NHC also hint at a weak low forming here within the next day or two, with a current surface trough indicated on the 18Z Surface analysis.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Clark
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Re: straight analogs [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #35375 - Fri May 13 2005 09:47 PM

Ed - you're entirely correct. Erin is my only storm that I've truly been through -- the center passed directly over my house -- but I was in Orlando at the time. The most we saw was 50-55mph winds in localized areas, which pales in comparison to what you saw. I should be a bit more careful in my words, as it only takes one storm -- as we found out so many times over last season.

As for the SW Caribbean -- there is some sort of circulation, but it was not captured by the last QuikSCAT scan (sometime this morning); however, it did show some pretty strong winds on the north side -- up to 50kt (mostly rain-flagged vectors, though). There should be another scan in the next few hours that may provide more insight. The convection -- really an MCS (mesoscale convective system) -- helped provide the surface pressure falls to get the circulation going; it'll be another matter if the circulation can maintain itself. Judging from visible imagery, which in itself is somewhat obscured on the south side by high clouds & convection, I would be willing to say that it is a near-surface or surface circulation that has developed. Convection near the center has died for the most part (save to the east) for now; something's going to have to organize again to keep the circulation from opening up on the southern side, however.

Wind shear has decreased in the region, but is still a bit on the high side. Any movement northward is going to rapidly take the system into a region of higher shear; the jet also appears to be slowly approaching again from the west, not a good sign for development. 18Z NHC analysis doesn't call for a low to develop there any longer, though neither does it analyze something there now. However, while I typed up the post initially, NRL put out a 91L INVEST on the system...talk about timely. Models still try to build the ridge in the SW Caribbean, but not for another 2 days. By then, whatever is there will have either developed extratropically or simply dissipated. Nevertheless, there is a narrow window for something; I just don't see it happening. Good practice for analysis, though. Ultimately, we could well end up like last May's Hispaniola storm, as previously alluded to here on the board.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Cycloneye11
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91L invest up for Caribbean [Re: Rich B]
      #35376 - Fri May 13 2005 09:49 PM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

I was a little surprised to see this invest being up so rapid.So let's see what happens.But shear will be the main factor to no let it develop however if it fades then it may be another story.


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wxman007
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Re: 91L invest up for Caribbean [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35377 - Fri May 13 2005 10:07 PM

I asked NRL to put up that invest so I'd have something to talk about on the news...LOL.

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Jason Kelley


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Storm Cooper
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Re: 91L invest up for Caribbean [Re: wxman007]
      #35378 - Fri May 13 2005 10:23 PM

Perfect timing after last night's event

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
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Re: 91L invest up for Caribbean [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #35380 - Fri May 13 2005 10:31 PM

i think that 91L stays more or less stationary and convection continues to flare at about the sam pace for the next 24 hrs or so. more wave energy is sliding in from the east late tomorrow, and about then the system could make another lunge at development. there seemed to be more diffluence over the area earlier.. it appears to have shifted east along the jet (might be an exit region or something). provided that the flare of convection upstream along the jet (south of d.r.) doesn't steal 91Ls fire, there may be some real organization to the thing by late sunday/monday. whether it's drifting up to near jamaica by then is a whole other issue. there's a decent surface trough and what looks like a meso low at the mid levels, but the focus for lowering pressure i'm thinking will stay just along the rim of the subtropical jet.. it should only migrate north as the jet does.
anyhow, just my take. now i need to go look at some model runs to see if my ideas are totally bonkers.
HF 2332z13may


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Lysis
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Re: 91L invest up for Caribbean [Re: HanKFranK]
      #35382 - Fri May 13 2005 11:08 PM

I know Ed and Clark just said something on par with this... but I would like to remind everyone of the 1992 season. Classic example of the "all it takes is one" scenario: One TD, Six named storms, of which only four become hurricanes, with only one major hurricane. Yet out of this we have the costliest natural disaster in United States history, and only one of the hurricanes made landfall. You all know its name. Every time I look at this picture I literally get goose bumps on my neck:

http://www.srh.weather.gov/srh/jetstream/tropics/images/andrew.jpg

I’m not really sure what this has to do with anything… but please stop with the landfall statistics mongering, and remember that all it takes is one. I find that I cannot reiterate this enough.

Note that stating landfall statistics (past events) is not mongering - it is simply stating what happened.

... Noted.

Edited by Lysis (Sat May 14 2005 02:08 PM)


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B.C.Francis
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El Nino may calm storms ? [Re: Lysis]
      #35390 - Sat May 14 2005 01:47 PM

I was reading an article in Florida Todays newspaper that we that we enjoy in Melbourne about what was talked about at the Governor`s Hurricane Conference in Florida. David Zierden a reasearcher at the Florida Climate Center in Tallahassee says that " There`s been another kind of pulse of warming going on near the coast of South America and it looks like something might be happeng. Its too early to say weather this will turn into a full-blown El Nino. We`ll know in a month or two. If El Nino were to delvelope, it certainly would be good news as far as hurricanes are concerned, but its to early to tell. Also Dr. Gray being there said " That the Atantic looks to be in a warming pattern similiar to one detected in the 1940`s and 1950`s.Its likely we`re going to get another 15 or 20 years of the Alantic getting warmer and that this is a natural cycle " Gray still expects more hurricanes than a average year, but not as many landfalls.......What do you guys think? Is there a chance that this David guy is on to something which could mean fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic this season and prompt Dr. Gray to lower his seasonal hurricane prediction fo 2005 ?..........After reading the article I was just wondering. Any comments?..........Weatherchef

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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91L [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #35391 - Sat May 14 2005 02:03 PM

i was just wondering when exactly 90L was

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Lysis
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Re: 91L [Re: Rabbit]
      #35392 - Sat May 14 2005 02:12 PM

It's not looking so hot...

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cheers


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Ricreig
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Re: Publicly available data [Re: Clark]
      #35393 - Sat May 14 2005 04:07 PM

I sent the following E-Mail to the Senator:

Senator,

You introduced legislation to effectively terminate the mission of the National Weather Service as a whole, reducing it to a data-mining agency for the private sector. I'm all for private-sector competition, but there is no precedent in any field to eliminate a task of the government under pressure from the private sector; it is up to the private sector to provide a service the general public desires and will pay for, improving upon what is publicly available, not to complain when they do not get their way.

As a resident of one of hardest hit hurricane states, as a avowed weather enthusiast, as an amateur meteorologist, I can tell you that this proposed legislation negatively impacts the meteorologist and forecasting fields in every imaginable way, with the only benefits realized in the private sector's checkbooks. It affects everyone, from those at the top providing the service to local television meteorologists and their forecasts to the general public looking for a simple, accurate forecast. People fail to realize how much the government provides that even the private-sector companies cannot live without; they also fail to realize how much more accurate and precise the governmental forecasts are as opposed to those from the private sector. The impacts upon the academic sector -- the group that provides the greatest benefits to hazardous weather prediction and understanding, yet alone daily weather prediction, would be huge. Entire sectors of the academic sector would cease to exist, notably those that go towards improving these forecasts. The private-sector companies rely heavily on data provided by the NWS and then charge their customers, the public, for this information that has already been paid for by the US Taxpaying public.

Your legislation is ill-conceived, poorly thought out, vague, very vague and will cost people money and even their lives. Accuweather and The Weather Channel did much more poorly than did the NWS in the record hurricane season the south-east United States experienced last year, and you would force the public to rely on companies like them, at a cost over and above we, the public, have already spent in taxes used to acquire the (often misinterpreted by the private sector companies) data.

Not everyone has (free or other) access to the Internet and cannot afford the 'premium' services provided by the private sector companies. Even if the public can afford the premiums your legislation would inflect upon it, why should the public pay taxes to support the private sector weather services? Unless, and until the private services can and do provide their own data, their own satellites, their own programs (models) that equal or exceed those used by the NWS and make the information freely available like the NWS, I submit the government should provide NO free information or data to the private sector companies and spend NO tax dollars to their benefit. We should not subsidize the private weather information companies with our taxes in any way unless we, the public receive service equal to or better than the NWS provides and for equal or less cost to the public. Read, tax elimination with the savings being returned to the public so they can pay for the commercial services.

I can't vote for you, or against you, but I can and will try to communicate my opinions and recommendations with as many of my many friends in your state that can and do vote. I hope you will reconsider your legislation.

Richard Creighton

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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
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Re: Publicly available data [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #35394 - Sat May 14 2005 04:32 PM

Quote:

Very good idea Skeetobite. However, I agree with Hank...the bill will never reach the light of day. I wonder how much $$ Mr. Santorum received from his constituent, Accuweather.com to propose this legislation. Please see link:




Are you really willing to take that chance? You can help insure it doesn't make it out of committee by sending a note, like Skeeter did. Even if redundant, it can't hurt and it might help. Just don't stand by and do nothing. That is why our government is so F****ed up already. We have collectively stood still and done nothing way too long. If you are wrong, and it does pass, I hope you never have to trust The Wx Channel for lifesaving weather information. It would interfere too much with the commercial breaks and 'teasers' about next hours upcoming teasers....untill after the storm hits and they claim 100% accuracy.

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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Ricreig
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Re: Wrong Forum But I Don't Care... [Re: LI Phil]
      #35395 - Sat May 14 2005 04:42 PM

Quote:

Hello all CFHCers,

I have been quite sick and spent the last week in the hospital, during which time I had to do a lot of soul searching and will be making several lifestyle changes necessary to keep me living for many more years. :


Hey Phil...I'm the old fogey here, you can't get sick, and if you do, you will have to stop doing that. It is *my* job in this forum to be an old curmudgeon with a weak heart!

Get well, completely well, quick my friend.

Richard


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hurricane_run
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Re: 91L [Re: Lysis]
      #35397 - Sat May 14 2005 06:36 PM

some storms flaring NE of the center now

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