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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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90E Strengthens
      #35536 - Tue May 17 2005 03:02 PM

new T# are 1.5/1.5

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BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35541 - Tue May 17 2005 03:20 PM

Well, you can now call it tropical depression 1 for 2005 in the E Pac. as the NRL have it as noname. Welcome to the start of a brand new season

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: Bloodstar]
      #35544 - Tue May 17 2005 03:29 PM

td1 first advisory 5 pm

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Storm Hunter
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: Bloodstar]
      #35545 - Tue May 17 2005 03:32 PM

check out GFDL nvest90e 2005051712 not a good thing..... suspect a TD/ts in carb... in 4-6 days?

but i do remember last year.... GFDL had little trouble in the bermuda high strength/ shear too

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #35546 - Tue May 17 2005 03:42 PM

i was looking at that also same thoughts. the mountains of central america will be pretty harsh on this one so im not sure about a TS in the carib... yet...

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LI Phil
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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35547 - Tue May 17 2005 03:57 PM

Good catch hr... if the NRL has this as "NONAME-E" we'll have TD1 at the next advisory...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #35548 - Tue May 17 2005 04:05 PM

Don't discount the GFDL solution just yet. Conditions are there for rapid intensification once this thing gets going, despite the direction of motion. The SSTs are very warm -- 30+ C -- in the region, shear is low, and the subtropical jet to the north will only assist in enhancing outflow while in the east Pacific. As the storm organizes and becomes better defined, we could see one round of rapid intensification before landfall, perhaps even to major hurricane status (as the GFDL calls for). I wouldn't go 125kt yet, but 100kt is possible. The people along the entire Central American coast -- Pacific and Caribbean sides -- need to watch this one. Two-three days is the time frame we're looking at, particularly the latter end of that.

As for evolution after landfall: what path the storm takes across land will determine how much survives into the Caribbean. Obviously, the narrower the path, the stronger the remnant circulation. A deep trough should be located off-shore of the U.S. coast as it re-emerges into the Caribbean, but a cut-off low over the Gulf (not the one there now, but down the road 4 days) as a ridge builds across the central Plains may interact with the storm, resulting in a deviation to the track from what we might expect. Best bet now is to go with the "flow" and call for a continued NE progression, similar to that shown in the GFDL. Shear is going to be pretty high no matter where it goes here, though, and the evolution may not end up entirely tropical as a result.

We may well get our first Atlantic May storm in nearly 25 years in the next week. I'm not going to say that it will happen for certain, but the ingredients are there to potentially see something. I'm more confident in something happening here than I was before, and I'll leave it at that for now. Watch this storm in the EPac though -- it's certainly going to affect the coast of Mexico/Cent. America pretty hard in a few days' time.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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hurricane_run
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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: Clark]
      #35551 - Tue May 17 2005 04:18 PM

taking what clark said into consieration look at the cyclone intensification potential
chart shear forcast


Edited by hurricane_run (Tue May 17 2005 04:19 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35553 - Tue May 17 2005 04:23 PM

Any evolving system would sure be kept south of Florida. This may simply become a Carribean problem if it does migrate, and survive the trip, across Central America Any pathway north of Jamaica would surely become a soaker for Cuba and So. Florida.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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hurricane_run
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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: Clark]
      #35554 - Tue May 17 2005 04:25 PM

the first advisory is out NHC

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Cycloneye11
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TD 1-E forms [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #35555 - Tue May 17 2005 04:26 PM



Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on May 17, 2005



...Early season depression develops southwest of Guatemala and El
Salvador...could cause torrential rains over Central America...
Interests along the Pacific coast from southeastern Mexico to El
Salvador should closely monitor the progress of this system over
the next few days.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression One-E was
located near latitude 9.9 north...longitude 95.0 west or about
470 miles... 760 km...west-southwest of Guatemala and El Salvador.

The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph
... 7 km/hr...and this unusual motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track...outer rainbands may begin to
affect the coastal areas of Guatemala and El Salvador on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and this system could become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

The depression is expected to move slowly northeastward...which is
not typical...over the next few days. On the forecast track...this
system has the potential to produce torrential rainfall over
portions of Central America during the next few days.

Repeating the 2 PM PDT position... 9.9 N... 95.0 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 8 PM PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Stewart


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35556 - Tue May 17 2005 04:27 PM

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.7N 91.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

winds gusting past hurricane strenght on the 19th


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35557 - Tue May 17 2005 04:33 PM

the TWC just did a tease on TDe-1..... 330cdt

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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hurricane_run
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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #35564 - Tue May 17 2005 05:14 PM

"coming up next the latest on the new TD in the Pacific" he he

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Storm Hunter
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Re: 90E Strengthens [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35565 - Tue May 17 2005 05:19 PM

not sure if this is right sat winds

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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BloodstarModerator
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Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #35568 - Tue May 17 2005 05:31 PM

From my (untrained) eye, Most models are bringing *something* across into the atlantic. Now mind you, what that something is, is really up in the air. Most of the models have about a 1000mb low kinda meandering over near cuba in 144 hours or so, with the exception being the GFDL which really ramps that sucker up and then ramps it up again.

At the moment track is the key to any threat to the atlantic, a slight northern deviation and the storm spends less time over land, a slight southern deviation could end up destroying all the organization.

As far as the intensity goes, I'd wait to see a model run with a better initalization of the storm than the current model set. But the outflow looks nice, and the storm looks pretty impressive for a tropical depression. particularly with the banding features already starting to fire up, low shear, and very warm water temps. As Clark pointed out above. The storm does have a possibility to get pretty nasty.

IANAM (I am not a meterologist), but I would want to put up hurricane watches along the pacific coast of El salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras by the evening advisory.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) [Re: Bloodstar]
      #35571 - Tue May 17 2005 05:45 PM

The problem is, most of all models are not purely dynamic-they are more so hybrid (staticscal and dynamical). The fact that there is virtually no climatology for this storm doesn't help forecasting, but I like what the NHC is doing, although I would favor a bit higher. Just go back to your basics, it's forming in a a pool of 30 C+ waters, and no shear with aided outflow from jet above. To top it off it's moving slow! I hope this isn't a bad omen.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


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Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) [Re: Keith234]
      #35576 - Tue May 17 2005 06:14 PM

since there is basically no climatology for this storm the NHC has to play it as they seem fit. Before it get to the coast i agree that the intensity forcast be raised but unless it get really strong is being more than a TD when it enters the carib is not likely. remember mitch? after being in the carib for a while i would give it some chance of being fo making ts

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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) [Re: hurricane_run]
      #35595 - Tue May 17 2005 08:05 PM

NOAA is doing some new things this season...



--------------------
cheers


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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
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Loc: USA
Re: Model Runs and thoughts on TD-1 (E Pac) [Re: Lysis]
      #35600 - Tue May 17 2005 08:29 PM

they did that last season but it wasn't on the main page last season. you hd to kinda look for it

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